JE - trade first, ask questions later - call the bottom...?!
anyway, the answer is 'technical reasons' - it can't make a decent triangle by staying in a tight range........
edit 20:47 - Hmmm – 632/40 a tad pessimistic – 647 the low! Was looking for the ‘normal’ cynical pattern of creeping the price up to sucker the longs in, then suddenly tanking it below support to take out stops - very restrained today... :cheesy:
jsd – In this current rally we’ve done around 3400 points in c.340 days - After the 1998 Asia/Russia crisis the Dow rose around 4000 points in c.220 days without retracement and then went on to the 1999/2000 highs with only minor pullbacks; so there are recent precedents for rallies of long duration…….true, there are always things that could go wrong……..
hmmm yes, but then they did have tulipamania in the form of tech world .comism i cant see any new boom on the immediate horizon comparable to .comism and the like, the whole techworld to me is just churning, compacting into just another industry sector as i see it.
hmm anyway doesn't matter as such as we short term play it, but i'd be very reluctant as an investor at these levels, unless someone had a gun to my head.
the end of play on the NDX 100 looks like possible forming H&S ,(spanning 2 sessions, top right shoulder going in now) the dow however broke its neckline this evening circa 10691, leading to the fall this afternoon , so tomorrow i see it as 10690/700 must support for upside momentum. as for the ndx100 , i think it'll penetrate neckline @ 1502 leading fall to test recent 1482/5 zone.
Frugi ... Looks like being an excellent call with the triangle, don't know what time scale your chart is based on, but I am looking at a 60 min chart with the triangle sitting comfortably above the 100 EMA and to me that is a clue that a break to the upside carries the greatest potential if it performs.
We had the second inside day on the trot today, this is starting to feel like hard work especially when I compare it to the Euro/$ futs contract that gave up over 200 points today.
On 10min chart, DOW may be displaying an Ending Diagonal Pattern subdividing in 3 waves. Wave (v) of (v circled) has potentially only one more leg (c) to complete which might come near the resistance line at about 10775-800.
Interesting also what appears to be a triangle pattern. If market churns another couple of days (Friday fut expiry), the upside measure for the triangle would also come near the 10,800!
So there may be another 100+ pts to play for! Thereafter we may have to swap our bull masks for bears!
(below 10604, low of wave (iv) would imply that top may already be in place)
I am totally ignorant of EWA and appreciate the targets you have applied to your charts.
One question......... the posts that I have read recently on this site and others with regard to EW appear to point to a bearish consensus, is that the overwhelming conclusion that can be drawn from recent price action or does EW allow the potential for 800 and beyond ?
The consensus among EW analysist is bearish but in order to be perfect from an wave analysis point of view, wave (c) of (v) still needs to play out and push the market higher in next 1/2 days. Ideal closing target is around 10775. Thereafter, there should be a considerable pullback/correction or more.
Please note this is only one view and outcome is most certainly not cast in stone. Note that in last years' rally EW analysts have been calling the top ever since April!!! But that doesn't mean that current analysis turn out to be valid.
Let's see how this dubious pink triangle plays out. I'm chuffed to see it has attracted some attention
Looks like the dollar may have had a key reversal yesterday - bullish engulfing candle, outside day up - and since stocks have been inversely correlated with the mighty greenback of late I'd say they would be likely to correct on further $ strength, esp given the refusal of Naz to confirm recent Dow/SPX highs, dismal internals blah
So FWIW my virtual money's still on flat-to-up @ Fri's close, perhaps with a failure high, then a big downdraft next week.