Dow Intraday charts 07/Jun - 11/Jun

[ChartMan]

Not at the tiny stakes I put on. Not even a slight murmer. :cheesy:

 

[tradesmart]

The Big Picture:- We saw that the long 600 wide uptrend channel from May – Dec 03 cleanly delivered its target of 10750 ( channel break point at about 10150 + 600)

Now we have the current well defined 600 channel (some may say it’s a downtrend, some may say it’s a big bull flag…….!...... )

Could a break of the top line soon at 10400 ish deliver a target of 11000 if the bulls can maintain their momentum…..?!

(true, a lot of things could get in the way…….. )

 

[Finirama]

Tradesmart,

Always good to check the Vix chart as they give you a good heads up...its more bearish than bullish and is calling a top.

 

[Finirama]

PS. The chart reloads every 20 secs so its easer just to save it as a favourite. I've got 1 day, 5day, 3 months and 1 year if you want as well. Just let me know.

 

[ChartMan]

Decision time then, TS..... I'll go with 11K :cheesy:

 

[tradesmart]

CM – I reckon the bulls might win this one………

Fin – I guess that it’s all down to what happens next (!?) – we can see the March/May lows with the Vix north at 20-22 – maybe now it’ll track along between 18-14 as it did when the Dow was strong between November and February…?

Little doubt that we’re at a short term top and would anticipate a pullback from and consolidation around the top trendline now anyway, as the index digests its recent gains before the next move……..

 

[Finirama]

Lets hope so

 

[Finirama]

CM...forever the bull eh?

 

[ChartMan]

The classic Dow bull flag breaks on the third high, which is where we are now on the daily, so we can't be far away fom the decision, one way or the other.

 

[dc2000]

And my 2p worth 11k would be nice but think more likely 10600 then down and up over the next 2 months to start September where we are now

 

[bracke]

ChartMan

"Decision time then, TS..... I'll go with 11K "

But are you prepared to put your money where your big smile is?

Regards

bracke

 

[ChartMan]

I never put my money where my mouth is.I like to guess/analyse the what iff's for something to do. It's hard enough guessing where we go tomorrow, yet alone beyond that.
BTW we're going nowhere tomorrow,markets are closed re Reagan Funeral. So if you guessed 410 in the comp. you win.....

 

[ChartMan]

Nasty day of going nowhere, but at least we stood still.....with a final flurry at the end to close up 40 ish.

 

[ChartMan]

Another messy day.... not surprising really.... I stayed long all day with patience being rewarded at the close- just. Never a better example of the 100MA rules- stay in your position all the time the price inside the 100MA+/- 20- doesn't matter if you are long or short..... Trading off the divergences would have given you the edge- and a couple of points more.

 

[RobinT]

Chartman, first I must thank you for your daily commentary. I have been able to reproduce your charts and duplicate your entry and exit parameters and your system is perfect for me. I have read the posting on how to use the 100ma as a stop and again this is perfect for me.

I have a question and an observation. Yesterday, and some times in the past you have entered long and the 100ma has kept you correctly in the trade. The part of the puzzle that is missing for me is what got you long in the first place?

The observation is that I have noticed that when the price moves rapidly to the ma and then either reverses, or comes back into the band, its a good reversal trade, usually to the upside when the market traverses rapidly down. This has happened twice over the past few days.

I welcome any comments you might have. Thanks.

 

[ChartMan]

I developed the 100 MA rules because in my early days of trading the dow, I managed to get severley whipsawed on numerous occaisions, losing 10's of points at a time, when over a period of hours, the price went nowhere. As for going long.... I have a preference for going long, and a mental block( that I still struggle with) in going short. So, unless the short is clear cut, I don't do it, preferring to wait it out and find a bottom reversal. No doubt one day I'll get the hang of it !. Also, not being a "full time" trader, I often get into a position and miss a good exit. In the past, I used to panic. Now I sit it out and bide my time. I does mean I miss quite a few 40 point moves, but then I don't rely on trading for a living, so I can afford that luxury.

 

[a320]

Balance points..