I see what you mean. At least you had no reason to bang your head. Congrats. Hope you had a rewarding day.
No doubt, though, you are just as curious as me to read CM's analysis. As we speak I wouldn't know whether to be long or short. Ergo I am out. Time for dinner
No doubt, though, you are just as curious as me to read CM's analysis. As we speak I wouldn't know whether to be long or short. Ergo I am out. Time for dinner
Stock Pimp
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tsim
hi,sorry about this but i have lost tsim www, anyone know it?
thanks
hi,sorry about this but i have lost tsim www, anyone know it?
thanks
rossored
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What a nasty day, range bound for 30 odd points. How do you figure out days like this and know to stay out? Pass. I wish I knew. Do you take a cue from the RSI /Price ratios? Does the area within the 3 circles showing congestion/indecision tell us? Is it the gently sloping but rapid, small direction changes that tell us?
Taking the opening ND and trying a short would have paid off, just. But where do you exit? 9620? Or do you hold out and follow the 100MA rules- don't exit the trade all the time the price is within +/- 20 of it. Well, that didn't happen until 9600, at which point an exit at support would have been in order- just because it was 9600. 9620 was support .... Another reason to stay short was the weakness in the uptrends in RSI, hardly making 1:1.
What if you went long somewhere? Maybe around the high at 16:50.... No clear exit , no real clues... the pullback to the 100MA at 18:20 may have persuaded you to close...but we're still within the 100MA +/- 20 so the rules say stay in.... The crunch comes as 9620 is lost and the price drops to 100MA -30 forcing a close.Only to see it recover later on. A tough call, you follow the rules and you lose. But then you don't know that the price isn't going to drop through 9600 for a lot more...
It's a very fine line between taking a punt, and waiting for a "safe" entry- one where the price extends beyond the 100MA by 20 points.All I would say is this. IF you have itchy fingers and feel the urge to get in, take a half stake... and then another half stake as the move develops into a "safe" entry..... A bonus here is that you COULD consider taking a stop at twice the normal size.
Either way, tough choices.
Taking the opening ND and trying a short would have paid off, just. But where do you exit? 9620? Or do you hold out and follow the 100MA rules- don't exit the trade all the time the price is within +/- 20 of it. Well, that didn't happen until 9600, at which point an exit at support would have been in order- just because it was 9600. 9620 was support .... Another reason to stay short was the weakness in the uptrends in RSI, hardly making 1:1.
What if you went long somewhere? Maybe around the high at 16:50.... No clear exit , no real clues... the pullback to the 100MA at 18:20 may have persuaded you to close...but we're still within the 100MA +/- 20 so the rules say stay in.... The crunch comes as 9620 is lost and the price drops to 100MA -30 forcing a close.Only to see it recover later on. A tough call, you follow the rules and you lose. But then you don't know that the price isn't going to drop through 9600 for a lot more...
It's a very fine line between taking a punt, and waiting for a "safe" entry- one where the price extends beyond the 100MA by 20 points.All I would say is this. IF you have itchy fingers and feel the urge to get in, take a half stake... and then another half stake as the move develops into a "safe" entry..... A bonus here is that you COULD consider taking a stop at twice the normal size.
Either way, tough choices.
Attachments
Pete Hanman- The entry was a gamble.... There was no clear break above the 100MA. Also the RSI strength was very weak on the up move and that should have put you off..... Taking a trade in the last half hour will usually be unproductive. If you've taken a decent profit prior to this, don't get greedy, you'll almost always give some, if not all, of it back.
All other comments from others are noted... Short term ND or PD is exactly that - SHORT TERM. That can be 5 mins or so. That's OK for scalpers on direct access, but may kill you on Spread Bet accounts... Sure, you can take a punt, after all , it MAY turn out to be a full 3 pk divergence . But as I said in the 1 min report, take a half stake...... Toad had the right idea... Dinner time.
Other topics.... is a good entry required, or will exit strategy save you? IF you can get into the habit of a half stake on a "must do it" basis, AND your exit strategy is solid, you'll be halfway there. The skill is in getting the right entry and I think that's important. If you can get a good entry, AND move into profit quickly, even if it's only 20 points or so, then your comfort zone becomes a mile wide and you have suddenly got all the time in the world ( relatively) to plan the targets, stops and exits. If , on the other hand, your entry quickly goes against you, things get distressing very quickly. It goes from bad to worse etc.etc. End result is a bad entry, probably an even worse exit and a nice loss for nothing. Moral of this ? Don't be in a rush to make a trade. Life will be much smother, but on occasions, very boring.
All other comments from others are noted... Short term ND or PD is exactly that - SHORT TERM. That can be 5 mins or so. That's OK for scalpers on direct access, but may kill you on Spread Bet accounts... Sure, you can take a punt, after all , it MAY turn out to be a full 3 pk divergence . But as I said in the 1 min report, take a half stake...... Toad had the right idea... Dinner time.
Other topics.... is a good entry required, or will exit strategy save you? IF you can get into the habit of a half stake on a "must do it" basis, AND your exit strategy is solid, you'll be halfway there. The skill is in getting the right entry and I think that's important. If you can get a good entry, AND move into profit quickly, even if it's only 20 points or so, then your comfort zone becomes a mile wide and you have suddenly got all the time in the world ( relatively) to plan the targets, stops and exits. If , on the other hand, your entry quickly goes against you, things get distressing very quickly. It goes from bad to worse etc.etc. End result is a bad entry, probably an even worse exit and a nice loss for nothing. Moral of this ? Don't be in a rush to make a trade. Life will be much smother, but on occasions, very boring.
Hope I'm not being rude and jumping in on a private thread but I'm new to this site. New to trading too - been studying for 4 months and trading for 2! I tend to daytrade the ASX200 on D4F but jumped into the Dow this morning for a small trade. This site is fantastic and I'm learning loads - many thanks.
I entered towards the end of the day on the breakout of the bullish flag/pennant at 9633 with an initial target of 9642 due to S/R, and a flag target of 9660. Exited at 9644 due to the jitters only to see it hit 9656! Is all this ok of very iffy? Figures are based on nasty D4F data so may not correlate but even with their stuff its great to see activity and trends/channels/patterns which are rare in ASX!
My first post anywhere so its a big step for me!
I entered towards the end of the day on the breakout of the bullish flag/pennant at 9633 with an initial target of 9642 due to S/R, and a flag target of 9660. Exited at 9644 due to the jitters only to see it hit 9656! Is all this ok of very iffy? Figures are based on nasty D4F data so may not correlate but even with their stuff its great to see activity and trends/channels/patterns which are rare in ASX!
My first post anywhere so its a big step for me!
china white
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Eminem - spot-on! 1068 is a long-term fib level indeed! Very sharp eye! 
as for Wednesday's price action - completely agree CM, it was complete and utter r****sh... one of those days u wish u stayed at the pub However, the congestion level is quite high now, which in theory facilitates a big jump (or dive)... Cud easily be Friday
as for Wednesday's price action - completely agree CM, it was complete and utter r****sh...
one of those days u wish u stayed at the pub However, the congestion level is quite high now, which in theory facilitates a big jump (or dive)... Cud easily be Friday china white
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what do u make out of it?
Alr8, lets hear out both sides :
GRIZZLIES:
- 1050 cash (1048 ES) too strong to B/O even on a combination of excellent econ numbers and YHOO.O stellar results
- +10/-10 day which is usually a bearish sign
- expected McClellan day (Tuesday's minor change of +2.71) which just melted down
- ES close below important 1038 level
TAUROS:
- a "wider" up trend is established, with its lower bound tested for the 4th time, which held again (see 5 min chart below)
- in Hindsight noone shud've expected 1050 psycho level to pop on the 1st try (I just LUV this sort of arguments! :cheesy: )
- on a daily chart today is not exactly a hangman, but a shooting star rather which some ppl call an interruption of the up trend, but not as bearish as hangman
I am staying away from commenting on this. We r in for an interesting ride from here!
Alr8, lets hear out both sides
:GRIZZLIES:
- 1050 cash (1048 ES) too strong to B/O even on a combination of excellent econ numbers and YHOO.O stellar results
- +10/-10 day which is usually a bearish sign
- expected McClellan day (Tuesday's minor change of +2.71) which just melted down
- ES close below important 1038 level
TAUROS:
- a "wider" up trend is established, with its lower bound tested for the 4th time, which held again (see 5 min chart below)
- in Hindsight noone shud've expected 1050 psycho level to pop on the 1st try (I just LUV this sort of arguments! :cheesy: )
- on a daily chart today is not exactly a hangman, but a shooting star rather which some ppl call an interruption of the up trend, but not as bearish as hangman
I am staying away from commenting on this. We r in for an interesting ride from here!
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china white
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"Triple Switching" day
an excellent day for daytrading! An early gamble of buying the triangle B/O minutes b4 the initial claims number (NOT RECOMMENDED FOR BEGINERS!!! - it is not TRADING, it is GAMBLING!) worked out nicely. Tempted to close longs several times, however stayed long mainly because of Price/RSI ratio on pullbacks on the Dow, e.g. 10 min b4 NY lunch we had 45 pts pullback on RSI for 15 pts lost on the Dow. The bell rang retreat at 13;50 when A) up sup line was B/D + B) an R/S switch on RSI failed. That failed R/S switch rapidly developed into a S/R switch on RSI at 14:00 plus re-test of the old sup line on price. Shorts lovely delivered, until we got an R/S switch on RSI at 15:05 coupled with a PD 1 min RSI flashing. Perfect point to cover shorts, and go long which the author didnt do
an excellent day for daytrading! An early gamble of buying the triangle B/O minutes b4 the initial claims number (NOT RECOMMENDED FOR BEGINERS!!! - it is not TRADING, it is GAMBLING!) worked out nicely. Tempted to close longs several times, however stayed long mainly because of Price/RSI ratio on pullbacks on the Dow, e.g. 10 min b4 NY lunch we had 45 pts pullback on RSI for 15 pts lost on the Dow. The bell rang retreat at 13;50 when A) up sup line was B/D + B) an R/S switch on RSI failed. That failed R/S switch rapidly developed into a S/R switch on RSI at 14:00 plus re-test of the old sup line on price. Shorts lovely delivered, until we got an R/S switch on RSI at 15:05 coupled with a PD 1 min RSI flashing. Perfect point to cover shorts, and go long which the author didnt do
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Nice one, China. How I missed the triangle yesterday on the 10 min beats me. Too many lines and trying too hard. With today's 10 min chart, it's crystal clear. Target 9750! And whilewe're at it, I missed the bull flag too, with a target of 9700, also crystal clear now. Perfect RS switch setup on CCI, but waht about RSI? Am I just "curve fitting"?
Sitting on channel support, peaking today at mid channel resistance. Still plenty of room to make my 9900 target prediction....
Too many lines and trying too hard. With today's 10 min chart, it's crystal clear. Target 9750! And whilewe're at it, I missed the bull flag too, with a target of 9700, also crystal clear now. Perfect RS switch setup on CCI, but waht about RSI? Am I just "curve fitting"?Sitting on channel support, peaking today at mid channel resistance. Still plenty of room to make my 9900 target prediction....
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Great trading day compared to yesterday...Starting with the bull flag . Not easy to spot at the time as it lacked uniformity, but towards the tail , it developed into a triangle, and so the last dip failed support as well. Good targets from this. First the triangle at T1, and then the Bull Flag at T2, which clearly failed.Ideal entry? At the pullback to support from the bull flag resistance break line, 9715 ish... So with T1 at 9740, we had to get past 9732. That was tested once and then broke- a good chance now that 40 will be met. So, onwards, looking for T2.Well, it didn't happen. What did happen was the normal ND top with an unusual dip in the middle peak. ( we normally get a blip) Out for 50 ish. Looking again at the criteria for a short off an ND top, the support break was just above the 100MA, with a swift drop to below and a pullback. Then some dithering around the 100MA that shouldn't have caused anyone concern...before finally dropping like a stone, back to 9650 and closing the gap. I'm not one for following gap closing strategies, but here it clearly occurred. Preceded by the obligatory PD bottom for a cover, and in case you forgot, 9550 was yesterdays resistance, and so became support today....
The pD bottom was confirmed by both the SR Switch and the divergence in volume on ES ( I'll post that later). That short was worth close on 100 points. Note the action around 32 and 64 today again. Long into the close? Well, maybe, as it broke through 64, but with so many points in the bag, why not make a cuppa instead. ? You might have bagged 5 points....
Note the SR Switch resistance line is drawn in hind sight. In real time, the line was higher, touching the actual peaks and did not clearly show the SR switch. If you only took the peaks from 18:45, then you would have seen the SR Switch.
The pD bottom was confirmed by both the SR Switch and the divergence in volume on ES ( I'll post that later). That short was worth close on 100 points. Note the action around 32 and 64 today again. Long into the close? Well, maybe, as it broke through 64, but with so many points in the bag, why not make a cuppa instead. ? You might have bagged 5 points....
Note the SR Switch resistance line is drawn in hind sight. In real time, the line was higher, touching the actual peaks and did not clearly show the SR switch. If you only took the peaks from 18:45, then you would have seen the SR Switch.
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china white
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1034-39 sup/res resolution
off to Mexico for the long w/e so just a cupl of quickies. My take is the 4-day uptrend lower sup line held (with a screeching sound tho ). What is even more important for next week IMO is the resolution of 1034 - 1039 trading range. Either 1034 will become a major res - or 1039 a major sup. I'm still in favour of the latter, but PLS don't let yr judgement be influenced by anyone's opinion!
Note that as important a tool as R/S switch on 5 min is, today it struggled to deliver.....
off to Mexico for the long w/e so just a cupl of quickies. My take is the 4-day uptrend lower sup line held (with a screeching sound tho
). What is even more important for next week IMO is the resolution of 1034 - 1039 trading range. Either 1034 will become a major res - or 1039 a major sup. I'm still in favour of the latter, but PLS don't let yr judgement be influenced by anyone's opinion! Note that as important a tool as R/S switch on 5 min is, today it struggled to deliver.....
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china white
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intraday fight for small beer
IMO 2 obvious long entries, and 2 obvious short ones. A tricky one is the last ND - the author went short on that as well which cud've aesily wiped off all the day's effort The information which came to rescue was a well-pronounced R/S switch on futures price. Overall, time well wasted today.....
Nice w/e to all u lot and happy earnings week!
IMO 2 obvious long entries, and 2 obvious short ones. A tricky one is the last ND - the author went short on that as well which cud've aesily wiped off all the day's effort
The information which came to rescue was a well-pronounced R/S switch on futures price. Overall, time well wasted today..... Nice w/e to all u lot and happy earnings week!
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china white
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good lesson for myself and I hope everyone - keep a position for the last 15 min of fut trading 4:00-4:15 ONLY if it's a clearly winning one! in this case being long ES cud've made u more than the whole day..... grrrrhhhh
in this case being long ES cud've made u more than the whole day..... grrrrhhhh 9900 doesn't look too clever right now.Sideways slip on RSI and CCI still holding RS Switch.The channel broke out at 9700 so we'll have to wait till next week to look for clues. A drift up to 9900 is not out of the question and neither is the development of an H&S, with the right shoulder in the 9650 region.
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Bear flag within a bear flag at the open... First low that failed to make support led one to believe there may be a break to the upside- didn't happen.. then it looked like the failure to make resistance would confirm the drop which it did. And all this around 9700 test. That fact was helped as well by the lower high from 9712 to 9709. Taking the only option of a short meant waiting all day for just a few points. I wonder how many had the patience to stick it out? One out was the first 3 peak PD across 30 mins, the second across the minimum required of 25 mins at 9655 for a miserly 30 odd points.
A good day for losing your shirt... and getting whipsawed to death. Take a note of the weakness in RSI for just about the whole day. That should have rung alarm bells. Been there done that. No point in trading. Taking the short, and sticking to the 100 MA rules would have kept you safe, but bored rigid. I see this as a serious test of 9650. Look at the 10 min chart.Judging by the closing vols on ES , there were plenty of ppl holding long over the weekend....
A good day for losing your shirt... and getting whipsawed to death. Take a note of the weakness in RSI for just about the whole day. That should have rung alarm bells. Been there done that. No point in trading. Taking the short, and sticking to the 100 MA rules would have kept you safe, but bored rigid. I see this as a serious test of 9650. Look at the 10 min chart.Judging by the closing vols on ES , there were plenty of ppl holding long over the weekend....
