Dow Competition - Story So Far


Hi folks,

I've now got the overall competition league table up on the front page (right at the bottom, scroll all the way done!), and so I can now announce the results so far, 2 weeks into the first competition.

Well FTSE Beater, is pretty good at this, he's not just the only person to successfully predict the direction of the market close on Friday on both weeks, BUT he also called the closest prediction each time. So well done, FTSE! That's a storming 16 points, 11 points in front of second place Options with 5 points, a solid call this week. Well done to Amdrac, Chartman and snuffy44 who all called the correct direction. It was a turbulent week, with the value of the Dow hovering around the same level before plunging down, only to make a storming recovery on Thurs and Fri.

Good luck to all contestents for the coming week, there's still time to enter, and catch FTSE - still a max of 20 points up for grabs!

Is it open yet? If so, I can't find it ... old age must be creeping up faster than I had anticipated :(
Chartman, it's on the front-page. You've already entered ;) I think you're thinking of the proposed new spreadbetting index competition - that's still in the pipeline.

ok. I still don't get it :) I guessed 8000 for the dow last week, what about this week?
Ah, you have to re-enter each week. Each game is played over four weeks, so ideally you want to enter each week, to maximise your chances of getting points. Remember each week those who correctly predicted the direction (lower/same/higher), win X amount of points depending on what day of the week they make their predicition - so gain a maximum of 5 points by making your prediction before 2:00pm tomorrow. And if your'e the nearest prediction, there's an extra 5 points to earn. At the end of the four weeks the players with the most points wins. Check out the new league table on the front page to keep track of how many points each player is gaining over the four weeks.

Does that make it any clearer? Perhaps I need to set out the rules more clearly.

Commentators kiss of death

Well FTSE Beater, is pretty good at this
Cheers Sharky - Thanks to you the market god's have been against me this week. It's the only explaination I've come up with for me being nearly 700 points out. Must try harder this week.

Well done to all those who said up. I would love to know your reasoning. :)
All in the charts?
That's where I was going wrong, I've been using me tea leaves
and the subsequent tea puddle formations on the table, (I'm a sloppy drinker) along with me custard cream crumb formations that scatter like the runes.
I wonder why I keep seeing cup and handles???

Honestly FB, I know what any market will do.
It will either go up or down, so I just flip a coin. That gives a 50/50 chance, just happened to be heads last week. Then think of a four figure number, treble it, subtract the year when chartman was born then divide it by 17 and bob's your auntie.
I was close this week, but chartman told me he is 162, and between you and me I don't think he was being entirely honest. I think he was born in a leap year and that threw out my calculations.

How come when I picked my long to 8800 there was almost nobody long. Now every man jack and his dog is long. I was looking forward to picking this by a country mile :(
Just for that I hope it tanks and we all lose :)
Congratulations to FTSE Beater, who becomes our first Index Competition Winner. A mystery prize shall be winging its way over to FTSE next week.

After taking an early lead and collecting the max 10 points in the second week, FTSE always looked difficult to beat. But special mention must also go to Chartman, who not only came second, but correctly predicted the direction on 3 of the 4 weeks, the only contestant that did.

Here are the final 5 rankings:

1 FTSE Beater 6 10 0 0 16
2 ChartMan 0 3 5 5 13
3 Bill G - 0 6 4 10
4 options 0 5 5 0 10
5 payneg01 0 0 5 4 9
6 simy - - 4 5 9
7 madgooner - - - 9 9

Thanks to all those that particpated and hope everyone enjoyed the challenge.

I'd appreciate any feedback about the competition, about the rules and any suggestions about ways to improve it.

One suggestion has been to change the mandatory extra 5 points for correct prediciton, and instead make the points worth the same number of points your entry qualifies for, hence making the closest prediciton before market opens would qualify you for 5+5 points, but making the closest prediction before Friday open would make you just 1+1 point. Any thoughts about changes for the next competition that starts on Monday are more than welcome, perhaps changing from DOW to Nasdaq or SP500?

Excellent fun competition and some good brownie points to be had. :) For me, it has to stay as the DOW...... What I found interesting, was the balance of opinions....neither side being grossly one way or the other. It is just this that makes a market for everyone. I guess,though, sooner or later, we'll all be pumping the same way.Well done FTSE, although I would have had you if I woke up for the first week :) Let's see if I can come last next time. :)
Hi Sharks;

The one suggestion I have is that all predictions are kept secret until all the posts are in.

This will stop people being swayed in their voting and avoid clusters where people would naturally congregrate to.

In short. Contestents will have to make up their own minds as to where the market will head and thus improve quickly, the skill they must develop in order to survive in today's conditions.

I know it's only a laugh, after all's said and done, but the lazy people (and it's only human nature to be lazy) may well thank me for this one day, as they will have to form their own opinions and listen only to their own voice teling them where the market is going to.

As I said, it's only a laugh. But a good training excercise. Why not approach it properly?

Oh, and I favour a change of markets on a regular basis, including gold, dollar/yen etc. As long as we can see a chart of it or have someway to gauge it; seeing as no one has been able to take the tracking ball out of Chartman's mouse yet!

And well done to FB, despite being almost 700 points the wrong way one week. (Pass the pointy hat with the capital D over here m8).


PS: any chance of including a spell checker into these boards?
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Hi all

Thank you for your kind comments. As options pointed out I was 700 points out one week :( (Still yet to come up with an explaination for that :D ).

I would agree with Sharky about the new scoring system, I think it would make it a lot better :)

I'm still undecided about which markets should be used. The Dow is easiest because everyone knows it, but it would be fun to try currencies etc.. as long as we can have a link to a free chart website :)

It would be great to be able to hide people's predictions, but you still want to see the overall view.

Thanks Sharky for getting the competition set up :)
Hey Sharky.
Is the comp running this week?
It's blank on my front page.

Boo, Hiss.
I got a complaint sharky.
I could only get the 4 points because the comp didn't come up on my computer till the afternoon.

Miffed to the point of kicking the dog.

Oi! I have me comp on at 7.30 everymorning.
Kept switching to and fro site, but the comp wasn't there.

Sharky must be taking a leaf out of the sb boys book. lol.

Mr Options sir.

We had to come up with ways of handicapping you and giving everyone an even chance.

Well Done Sharky :D