Dow 2007

[smccreedy]

Got a funny feeling about this market, like it will keep going up, then I'll go to make a drink and it'll crash.

It seems to be on thin ice although volumes don't back up my gut on that one.

I reckon end of month window dressing and come next week you'll see a different market.

I wouldn't want to go short but I still think longer term risk v reward don't point to buying up here and looking for another 1,000 of upside, I do however see 1,000 point of downside.

Stephen McCreedy

*I am flat the YM Fut at the mo and staying that way till it moves to 13200 or 12900

 

[Pat494]

Testing a bit up. More a bunny hop than the hoped for blast-off but never mind. Testing a bit down and taken out my trailing stops. Probably put them in too tight ?
Might be a sideways drift as per FW with oscillations in for good measure ?

 

[firewalker99]

trade 1

bought dow at 13120

 

[smccreedy]

Not sure what's going on, maybe it's the 15% crash idea that got in my head but something has spooked the FTSE, down 70 points from the high in no time at all but not a move on the Dow.

Something has to give, is there some news that no one over there is taking seriously yet?

Stephen McCreedy

 

[firewalker99]

Not sure what's going on, maybe it's the 15% crash idea that got in my head but something has spooked the FTSE, down 70 points from the high in no time at all but not a move on the Dow.

Something has to give, is there some news that no one over there is taking seriously yet?

Stephen McCreedy

FTSE been weaker all week though... so pretty normal to see it drop faster or more than DOW relatively speaking. Let's not forget that we moved lower 50 points at DOW too...

 

[firewalker99]

bought dow at 13120

and exit first half at 13145 = +25
stop moved to BE... "free trade" basically... doubt if we'll get another run like yesterday but you never know

 

[firewalker99]

DAX looks as if it's distributing... so could lead to more downside
but a 15% crash looks very unlikely imho... especially after a complete trend day on DOW a downtrend day has a lower probability, I would expect some sideways range or first retracement before continuining higher

we had the retracement and we are continuining higher now...
so much for the first part of the day... no more predictions for this week or people will start thinking I have a crystal ball :cheesy:

 

[29Investments]

Tom Houggards advice - Stay short

 

[hobby]

Tom Houggards advice - Stay short

Whereabouts did you see/read/hear that?

His webpage hasn't been updated since yesterday!

 

[Atilla]

Whereabouts did you see/read/hear that?

His webpage hasn't been updated since yesterday!

Tom will star in the next Matrix film... with Steve Coban... :cheesy:

 

[Pat494]

Tom Houggards advice - Stay short

poor old Tom he cant pick it right at all - wish he would get a bloody haircut !! LOL

 

[29Investments]

poor old Tom he cant pick it right at all - wish he would get a bloody haircut !! LOL

He isn't wrong yet (today I mean)

 

[smccreedy]

All this talk of right and wrong is the sort of talk that ends up costing money!

"When the facts change I change my mind" That's what I try to live by.

Here is my take on the Dow.

Looks like it really climb a wall at the moment and shoot higher and I don't feel that yesterday's action was crazy enough to mark and end to the bull run. I'd expect a 300+ point upday to present the buying climax I'm waiting for.

This month long hourly chart does show some overhead resistance brewing though and my guess is a fall below 13100 on this (Jun Future) could lead to 13050 trendline support.

Just my thoughts.

Stephen McCreedy

 

[Atilla]

Tom Hougy was calling for an end to the long term bull cycle last August on Bloomberg. Just letting you in on Toms perma-bear psyche.

I'm dog bearish at these levels.

Next week we definately have a turn.

Really can't see the hype. Only good news is the House has voted to pull troops out of Iraq.

Wait for Bush to veto it and it will all come crashing down.

Gold is going off the boil probably for this reason too.

Oil should come down too. Once Iraq stabilises when the US goes back home oil will begin to flow...

Definately some nice optimistic pointers in the horizon.

 

[firewalker99]

I'm dog bearish at these levels.

Next week we definately have a turn.

Really can't see the hype. Only good news is the House has voted to pull troops out of Iraq.

Wait for Bush to veto it and it will all come crashing down.

Gold is going off the boil probably for this reason too.

Oil should come down too. Once Iraq stabilises when the US goes back home oil will begin to flow...

Definately some nice optimistic pointers in the horizon.

it's not over till it's over and it go on for another month imho
besides, the first flush probably won't be as big as everybody wants it to be, we need to make a lower high first after going down... distributing could take as long as couple of weeks

I see no reason to go short yet, meanwhile I'm nicely in profit with my longs again.

 

[twiggytwo]

Dow (cash ) to close at 12936 on Friday 27th due to fund managers taking the profit for the month end
only posting here as Dow contest will not accept the entry for this week
expect the market to move up above the 13,000 mark again next Monday late in the day --for start of next months Bull run continuation.
just my thoughts, not trading advice
best of luck to all twiglet

 

[Pat494]

Dow is now back in it's old bull channel that it occupied from Nov06 to Feb 07, it's at resistance now, support at bottom of channel for next few days is about 900-950(bottom of channel), with all the other support in between.

How long will it stay in this channel?

I don't bloody know!

Long enough for a few points hopefully

Have a good weekend

 

[firewalker99]

and exit first half at 13145 = +25
stop moved to BE... "free trade" basically... doubt if we'll get another run like yesterday but you never know

second part still holding, currently +50...
it almost feels too good to be true
stop moved to 13150

 

[Dinos]

Firewalker, 13145?, I have the high of the day at 13132

 

[ian]

Dino, He must be trading ym futures.