Dow 2007

[tightstops]

Hi Tightstops,

I want to go short because my analysis says so, we all have our different strategies, some are correct and some are not. I personally hope I am correct

Re: your strategy, how does it fair long term, does it work in range bound markets or trending only. What are the drawdowns like, how many losses in a row can you take before game over. I'm not being rude, just want some more information about your method.

Regards

Jay

hi demontaz
fair point and of course its quite possible for good strategies to be on the opposite side of the trade at the same time.
not sure if theres a neat phrase for it but just looks like the opposite of trying to catch a falling knife.
as for my strategy its not really a strategy. i normally trade currencies till about 4ish but sometimes move on to the dow jones for a few hours if i fancy a bit more trading. came up with it last week when struggling to get involved with my usual techniques. kinda took a step back and found the logic in this approach - didnt do the numbers but appeared to consistently be going up about 300 points for every down 100. you dont need to be a probabilities expert to see some value there. of course could be tweaked to say get out after 90 points if theirs some strong reasons/resistence there. i didnt bother with the extra effort tho. just bought set orders and forgot about it. nothing complicated but and i havent done any backtesting but im happy to bet my money on it. might be one for your armoury now too?

 

[Atilla]

Hi Tightstops,

I want to go short because my analysis says so, we all have our different strategies, some are correct and some are not. I personally hope I am correct

Re: your strategy, how does it fair long term, does it work in range bound markets or trending only. What are the drawdowns like, how many losses in a row can you take before game over. I'm not being rude, just want some more information about your method.

Regards

Jay

I'm not in the markets guys but if I was loaded and up for a bet I'd short it big time and sit and wait. If it's not in MAY come JUNE JULY we will be hovering below 12000.

Mark this post and send it to me in August if doesn't materialise I'll print and eat it. :cheesy:

 

[firewalker99]

I'm not in the markets guys but if I was loaded and up for a bet I'd short it big time and sit and wait. If it's not in MAY come JUNE JULY we will be hovering below 12000.

Mark this post and send it to me in August if doesn't materialise I'll print and eat it. :cheesy:

Sure thing,, but can you let it go against you 500 points first?
So meanwhile... keep letting those longs run won't harm anybody....
in fact, I have traded only longs on YM this week and I made it my best week ever!

 

[Ziff]

Sure thing,, but can you let it go against you 500 points first?
So meanwhile... keep letting those longs run won't harm anybody....
in fact, I have traded only longs on YM this week and I made it my best week ever!

You on long again firewalker ?

 

[firewalker99]

You on long again firewalker ?

Yes lol, I just can't believe it... in from 13140 futures price... 13180 as we speak ...
Edit: just exited it!

 

[Ziff]

Yes lol, I just can't believe it... in from 13140 futures price... 13180 as we speak ...
Edit: just exited it!

Excellent !

Well you are beating me..........I am long from 02 .............

Thanks to whoever gave the link earlier in the week for Oscar..........what a guy! :cheesy:

 

[firewalker99]

short

this might be the first short I'm looking to enter in a long "long" time...
volume is decreasing... I'll give it another 5-10min

Edit: looks more like a slight retracement now... so I'm not going short... probably should have stayed long

flat now

 

[Ziff]

this might be the first short I'm looking to enter in a whole time...
volume is decreasing... I'll give it another 5-10min

What timeframe do you use firewalker ?

 

[firewalker99]

What timeframe do you use firewalker ?

Hi Ziff, congrats on the good trade too

the chart I posted is 5min
I trade off 5min charts... but look at larger timeframe before and after the day

 

[Atilla]

Excellent !

Well you are beating me..........I am long from 02 .............

Thanks to whoever gave the link earlier in the week for Oscar..........what a guy! :cheesy:

Don't get carried away with your emoitions and Oscar now :cheesy:

 

[Ziff]

Don't get carried away with your emoitions and Oscar now :cheesy:

STOPS ARE IN Atilla..........................

 

[firewalker99]

Consumer spending up in the US........SO!

Everything is fine, the economy is great!

The banks give them the money to spend, course it's up.

Can they pay it back?

Yeh, over thirty years. Hey, why not apply for bankcruptcy, that's even better.

Bloomberg is so full of s...

Things couldn't look better lolz :cheesy:

 

[counter_violent]

Hit top of trend channel as described by linesniffer yesterday.......wild abandon rules today...i'm feeling reckless....overly large short trade just taken @ 36......theory being if it does'nt deliver many points...at least they will be big pounds.....

 

[firewalker99]

Hit top of trend channel as described by linesniffer yesterday.......wild abandon rules today...i'm feeling reckless....overly large short trade just taken @ 36......theory being if it does'nt deliver many points...at least they will be big pounds.....

well we are still making higher highs and higher lows... but could be looking to turn around now... I exited my longs already... staying flat and just watching things now

 

[Atilla]

Things couldn't look better lolz :cheesy:

I usually use Stochastic Momentum Index to let me know when steam is running out of the market. On these daily charts, since June 2006, it reached extended positions as shown.

Each time there was a significant pull back of at least 200 points.

November 2006 was an exception along with April. It then took three months for the falls of March to kick in.

If history repeats itself as it normally does, I guess 3 months will take us into no later than MAY JUNE JULY for a major MAJOR correction to take place. At least 10% and hey why not 15% whilst you are at it.

I do agree with many traders on this site and I have been wrong many a times, there is no such thing as bad news and DOW probably continue in its steam.

In a bizarre way I've been beginning to feel good about future prospects and can only feel this is perhaps the markets will react badly to US pulling out Iraq. Oil price coming down as stabilty arrives into oil production in Iraq and Nigeria. Europe reach agreement with Iran. Perhaps the big headache after the one big party will then be the biggest hangover of our modern day.

Anyhow based on the highs of today and given it's Friday and next week people expecting the worst I've done the anticipated and shorted the DOW. I dunno perhaps I'm standing in front of a freight train but as I said I feel good about it.

 

[daytradingUK]

It's interesting to note how quickly things are recovering after bad news, yet the slightest wiff of something that may seem good and we get a big jump - either the big money has nowhere else to go or people are being a little reckless and bidding things up on the basis of jumping earnings.
Personally I think this could all end in tears real fast, but then that's my opinion and they are a like backsides - everyone has one and they aren't always pretty!

Hope none of you guys get burnt if it does go, but I see a fall by the end of May.

Good luck guys.

 

[Atilla]

It's interesting to note how quickly things are recovering after bad news, yet the slightest wiff of something that may seem good and we get a big jump - either the big money has nowhere else to go or people are being a little reckless and bidding things up on the basis of jumping earnings.
Personally I think this could all end in tears real fast, but then that's my opinion and they are a like backsides - everyone has one and they aren't always pretty!

Hope none of you guys get burnt if it does go, but I see a fall by the end of May.

Good luck guys.

Good point daytrading. You have highlighted nightmare scenario.

At a high level there is too much liquidity with the money no where else to go.

However, there are debtors and creditors. Big debt balloon. One prick and it's BOOM! Bank runs come into mind. Remember Argentina. No it won't happen to us. Yet...

This is why to a large extent property is such a big hit. How many people do you know who now have a second property instead of a pension. Trust bricks and mortar not the financial markets.

All the oil revenue has to come back to Europe and the US no where else to go. China holding dollars prefers to spend in Africa and Latin America. But sooner or later what will it do with all it's dollars? Probably buy up Manhattan or something.

Nightmare scenario is not that far from here. But hey things are looking up. Titanic took 2 hours to sink. Plenty of time to get off.

 

[counter_violent]

well we are still making higher highs and higher lows... but could be looking to turn around now... I exited my longs already... staying flat and just watching things now

They will be falling over themselves now ...running for the exit...EOD EOW........BOOK THOSE PROFITS FELLAS...

 

[Pat494]

New Week - old problemo !
Trying out the new T2W ! yes well [';#.0o
Oscar has a down prediction but I'm not so sure yet, but being Mon I shall sit on the sidelines a bit more, should have a clue by 3 pm (uk time)

 

[smccreedy]

My short YM (Entry 13,131 stop 13,211 targer 13,031) managed not to get stopped on Friday leaving me a little out of pocket but in the market for today's mild pullback.

Here is my daily Dow chart and I'm sticking to my short, negative MACD cross and falling RSI will lead to a pullback at some point, even if it's short and sweet there might be chance for this trade to show a paper profit.

Stephen McCreedy