Dow 2006

[LION63]

Catracho,

Granted that most markets will follow the DOW and as it is trending up the others will follow. However, the PPT cannot be responsible for their movement as well which means that there are other forces at work. The fact that money supply is increasing at alarming rates on a global basis will account for a large proportion of this. Also notice the explosion of M&A activity and heavy share buy backs by individual companies.

It is the fact that some technical traders are not "pure" techies that is causing them the problems. They are neither calling the top based on technicals or fundamentals but based on "gut feeling". This then puts their trades in the pure gambling category and leads to losses that need not be sustained and the erosion of capital.

"In markets there are always participants who are looking for the turns in the market hoping to be first in on the next wave up or down....." Once again you are 100% correct but this route is fraught with danger and could be avoided if one exercises a bit of patience; even if one were to miss the first 100 points or so of a fall of say 750 points it is no disaster.

"Luck is always useful." Once again youare spot on but we should all remember that in life we make our own luck.

 

[hobby]

I wish I could short my own personal 'luck' indice, cos I'm not having any & getting a right kicking with my Dow shorts!

It's getting close to "last roll of the dice" now....& that's the coming results of Black Friday!

 

[FetteredChinos]

afternoon all, just passing through today as im meant to be studying for my CIMA exam tomorrow.

looks like the Dow is going to have a stab at making a new high to celebrate thanksgiving.

GBP/USD also made a nice move higher, as i did suggest.. there is a lot more where that came from too. The dollar is seasonally week from the end of november into january. so any longs on that pair will have 'god on their side'.

anyway, good trading chaps, and enjoy the turkey....

 

[Atilla]

All good advice and I agree with the technical charting and I can see my shortcomings.

I thought I should wait for the price and MA lines to cross / turn to confirm a change in trend. I recognise this is an upward trend. However, in the long-run the charts reflect fundamentals in economy. My gut feeling is the markets way over rated and some kind of retracement is long overdue. The fact that in the back ground there is a legitemate so called government body controlling manipulating prices is UNACCEPTABLE to me!

If black Monday or the plunge was due to automated trades then that should be tackled accordingly. This PPT fiasco has upset me It's like doping a horse to win a race because it hasn't won for two years.

Why don't we dope Rooney with drugs so he scores some goals. It's all for a good reason.

Well why don't we build up the continents of Latin America and Africa help people live better lives and stimulate demand and trade so we can sell more goods. It's a good moral reason.

Enron scandal has rocked the US financial markets and we have Sarbane&Oxley. What will deal with this Working Committee PPT fiasco.

Unacceptable, free market capitalist manipulating the financial markets for the greater good. Never heard so much Bull **** in my life...

Looks like the USA is finally embracing the Communist system I say.

 

[andycan]

A correction is due but it does not have to trade what you see not what you think
fundamentals do help the change in direction but dont be fooled you will see that the charts tell all and the news follows it not the other way round
if the markets followed the news the dow and es would be right where it started
US economy is up S*** creek and has been for years and will be for many more years to come
this move is a sucker play by the pros they are holding the longs and selling to the public so they can get out, its pretty tough to measure public greed but this move is classic joe public buying

 

[Pat494]

No OOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMPPPHH
in this market. Early start to thanksgiving I guess ?

 

[Bez]

Feels like were in a W4 on the 15min INDU... ready for the black friday results to give the 5th wave :?:

 

[andycan]

intresting Bez
my data has a spike to 12360
though im not too sure i could count waves here

 

[Bez]

Thanks Andy... ensign's spike filter, seems to have edited the spike out of the chart.....grr

Atilla to post a chart, click the reply to thread button, then click the managed attchments tab.
As always a snap shot is easier...

Make sure you save the image as a JPEG if you want to see a thumb nail smaller verson like the example below...

The more charts the better I say ))

Hope this helps...

 

[jfn_trader]

....anybody noticed that the Nikkei has lost about a 1000 points over the last 2 weeks while the Dow is being held up...hmmm...

 

[Racer]

Yes

 

[FetteredChinos]

where was that earthquake again?

 

[andycan]

looks like a high is in or close

 

[Bez]

Doodle on the 60min YM

ES seems to be in an End Dig of the lesser W3...

 

[Bez]

Nice chart andy...

That ending diagonal Big W5 is a very viable count...

I pefere at the mo simple 9 wave impluse count to finish on the 161.8% ext in time on the 17th of March ??

 

[Bez]

Not forgetting the Bears with an Exp Flat count

 

[jfn_trader]

looks like a high is in or close

If the Dow is following the 60 yr cycle, then the 1472 day run up (from 1942-46 ) was completed Nov 11 from the Oct 10, 2002 low....I think there is a stronger case for the 77 yr cycle which started in late 1852 (Dec) and again 1929 (Sept)....1852 +77 = 1929 + 77 = 2006

 

[kriesau]

It is amazing how this mega 4 month Dow rally has been driven by just 7 or 8 stocks, especially GM where the stock has almost doubled this year. Is this a dynamic, go-ahead company with a really bright future ? err.....not really and their credit rating was actually reduced to almost junk bond status during this period. !

Kirk Kerkorian to Sell 14M GM Shares
Wednesday November 22,
By Tom Krisher, AP Business Writer

DETROIT (AP) -- Dissident General Motors Corp. shareholder Kirk Kerkorian said Wednesday that he will slash his stake in the troubled automaker by selling 14 million shares of its stock this week. In the GM filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Tracinda said it had agreed on Monday to sell the shares at $33 each in a private transaction. The agreement will close on Friday, the filing said.

What a coincidence - maybe he's reading this BB :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[Racer]

where was that earthquake again?

In the fault line?
and the NIK bounced that day didn't it?

 

[tricks]

Kirk Kerkorian to Sell 14M GM Shares
Wednesday November 22,
By Tom Krisher, AP Business Writer

DETROIT (AP) -- Dissident General Motors Corp. shareholder Kirk Kerkorian said Wednesday that he will slash his stake in the troubled automaker by selling 14 million shares of its stock this week. In the GM filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Tracinda said it had agreed on Monday to sell the shares at $33 each in a private transaction. The agreement will close on Friday, the filing said.

What a coincidence - maybe he's reading this BB :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

Nice find Kriesau, maybe he'll start a 'trend' with fellow shareholders
Well done Kirk I say.