Dow 2006

[mark twain uk]

and short again on both dow and spx, the PPT has done its job

 

[Bez]

Thanks for the kind words and feed back Joules! ..

That was just a basic doodle count to give throw an idea around. I didn't want the chart to be to hard core with fib ratio's and projections on it, like something you'd find on tradingthecharts... I just did the bog standard Prechter 5=1 on a W3 ext.

I find the higher degree counts the most difficult for some reason, maybe its because I'm a day trader.. But I'l put a few doodles on a weekly to see what you think :?:

Atilla, the technical traders will always take time counts from different degree wave starting points & end points, to find natural time pressure as they believe the waves relate in both Time & Price. As always a chart paints a much clearer picture of what I'm going on about. I've put some fib trading day hits on the chart to highlight how they indicated the 26th of Oct was a natural pressure date with the 34&55 fib hits.

Hope this helps ...

 

[mark twain uk]

the dow spent almost a week within a narrow 80 points range, there ought to be some serious move once it breaks out of it, the question is on which side will it break out?

 

[catracho]

unlikely to be down for Thanksgiving in the US..otherwise it would "spoil" the "feelgood" factor, maybe next week we get the correction, then the next leg up to the widely touted 13k-14k level?

 

[Hook Shot]

the PPT (plunge protection team) is a work of fiction invented by traders with a prediliction to short positions to explain why their shorts have failed to work

Fc you cannot be serious.
Using it as an excuse for failed shorts maybe but to deny their existence seems ............ well seems a bit curious. There seems to be plenty of evidence and anyway it makes good sense from their position.

Naturally, you are to be applauded for your continued bullish stance - all you have to do is trail a stop........ Well Done!

Hook Shot

 

[mark twain uk]

unlikely to be down for Thanksgiving in the US..otherwise it would "spoil" the "feelgood" factor, maybe next week we get the correction, then the next leg up to the widely touted 13k-14k level?

Castracho,

14k level? Don't believe everything you read.

 

[mark twain uk]

spx spent all day today within a 40 points range, dow managed 45 points, this looks bearish to me, it seems that there are not many buyers at these levels

 

[mark twain uk]

The beginning of an article which makes quite a few valid points:

LESSONS FROM NURSERY SCHOOL
by The Mogambo Guru

The yield curve is still inverted, in that investors are mysteriously demanding to be paid higher interest rates for holding short-term debt (when the risks are more easily predicted), but they will accept lower interest rates to hold long-term debt (where the risks are unknowable with any degree of precision).

This is very weird, and that is why an inversion of the yield curve is such Big Freaking News (BFN). In that regard, Bloomberg reports that European government bonds now have an inverted yield curve for the first time in six years. "A so-called inverted yield curve hasn't been seen since August 2000 during the ECB's previous series of rate increases," they say.

But apparently neither the fact that the yield curve is historically uncanny in predicting recessions (and even the very few times when it is wrong, the performance of the stock market ain't nothing to get excited about, as it is usually nothing) nor that the curve last inverted right before the crash of 2000, made any impact whatsoever on Martin Price, the director of fixed income portfolios at Sarasin Chiswell, who says, "Some people talk about recessions, but I don't see it as a sign of one." Hahahaha! I laugh!

Apparently Richard McGuire at RBC Capital Markets loves to hear me laugh, too, and so he obligingly adds, "I don't think it's a recessionary signal, it's a bit simplistic to look at yield curves as a sign of recession." Hahaha! Thanks for the chortle, Richard!

 

[Hook Shot]

Castracho,

14k level? Don't believe everything you read.

Come on Mark why not 14k ? In time.....

 

[mark twain uk]

Come on Mark why not 14k ? In time.....

You said that this would be achieved in the next leg up. Not a chance (in my opinion), unless the next leg up happens after a serious correction (which to be serious has to be at least 10%, so we need to see first at least 11,000)

 

[mark twain uk]

the VIX reached 9.84 earlier in the day, I think this is an all time low, the market has no worries whatsoever

 

[STERLING]

You said that this would be achieved in the next leg up. Not a chance (in my opinion), unless the next leg up happens after a serious correction (which to be serious has to be at least 10%, so we need to see first at least 11,000)

I 100% AGREE WITH YOU MARK BUT THIS MARKET JUST DOES NOT WANT TO GO DOWN, HOPE I JUST PUT THE MOCKERS ON IT AND IT SHOOTS DOWN I HAVE BEEN SHORTING FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS NOW!!!!

 

[mark twain uk]

the pattern for the previous days (and there are quite a few in this series) was for the first drop to be bought back to and above the opening level, then there is a small correction on the down side and then the market ralies again and closes at highs, let's see if today the PPT brigade are doing the needful

 

[Bez]

Should doodle the INDU with the 12412 area...

 

[STERLING]

Lets hope it does not happen again today, its getting very expensive and i'm beginning to loose faith in tech analysis altogether.

 

[FetteredChinos]

what tech analysis do you rely on, sterling?

looking at bez's chart, ignoring the elliot wave numbering, all i see is a long succession of higher highs and higher lows, and this is just on the daily charts.. on the weeklies, it is even more pronounced.

so surely you shouldnt be looking to short the market on the basis that is appears overbought? at the moment it is saying that it is still going higher..

 

[catracho]

Castracho,

14k level? Don't believe everything you read.

not to worry I don't !!...just pointing out that the likes of CNBC etc are all pushing for those levels..which bodes well for the bears in the long run!

 

[mark twain uk]

I know what's been missing, is the last hour sell-offs, I have not seen any for a very long time, but today I will settle for a last 30-min sell-off :idea:

 

[Atilla]

unlikely to be down for Thanksgiving in the US..otherwise it would "spoil" the "feelgood" factor, maybe next week we get the correction, then the next leg up to the widely touted 13k-14k level?

Well if I made some big bucks on riding a big bull and I was going home to see my mummy, daddy and family for a nice roast would I leave my self exposed in the markets over these cold winter nights - when they are so extended. OR... do I take my profits and relax putting my feet up and winding my grey cells down for some rejuvenation?

Tough one eh?

Be interested in having a referendum on that one. :idea:

 

[tricks]

the PPT (plunge protection team) is a work of fiction invented by traders with a prediliction to short positions to explain why their shorts have failed to work

with all the programme buying and selling, its just normal market forces.

hope we are all looking for the burst further north chaps? its just taking a pause to unwind its slightly overbought nature, before heading up to 13,500 by january.

keep buying the dips chaps..

oh, and PS, a long on GBP/USD could prove useful before xmas.

fc

Hi FC,

with all the programme buying and selling, its just normal market forces.

And who might be 'in charge' of the programme buying and selling?
This is a bit of a 'meaty read' to say the least, but very interesting nonetheless? If you have the time -enjoy!


http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a97eb5d103b.htm

cheers - Tricks

P.S. Good luck to all