mark twain uk
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FetteredChinos said:
Same here, but not only that, but I am long! I bought a dip!!! What next? The three horsemen of the apocalypse?
Same here, but not only that, but I am long! I bought a dip!!! What next? The three horsemen of the apocalypse?
mark twain uk
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That's me done for the day, closed my longs for 8 and 12 ticks respectively, opened a small short with a stop loss on one side and the deep blue deep ocean on the other. Have a good weekend, I definitely need a rest.
Bolton warns of sustained market correction
Friday 17 November 2006
By: Dylan Lobo, Funds Reporter
Fidelity Special Values investment trust manager, Anthony Bolton, is moving into defensive stocks in anticipation of a more severe correction in markets than the one experienced earlier this year. Bolton said: ‘After three and a half years of a bull market, a more sustained correction than witnessed in May is probable.’
Bolton, who is stepping down from direct fund management at the end of 2007, feels attractive valuations, continuing merger and acquisition activity and high commodity prices will support share prices in the short-term. However, he said the number of stocks that meet his investment criteria has fallen. He said: ‘This partly reflects the fact that valuations continue to become compressed. Low valued stocks have generally been recognised by the market and re-rated upwards, while the premium of more highly valued stocks has fallen. ‘Furthermore, many traditional value stocks, which have performed well for some time, look expensive in comparison to historical norms.’
Given these concerns, Bolton is searching for lower risk, undervalued, high quality growth stocks that offer a good return on capital. He believes large-caps are more attractive following the performance of small and mid-caps during recent years. Bolton said: ‘Value opportunities among small and medium-sized companies became scarce as a consequence of their three-year bull run. In addition, investor appetite for risk increased, despite fundamental indicators proving otherwise.’
Bolton’s comments come on the back of a 19.4% return on his Fidelity Special Values investment trust (FSV) over the last year. Exposure to oil and gas companies, media, pharmaceutical and travel and leisure stocks helped drive performance. The trust had no exposure to general industrials, tobacco, aerospace and defence stocks.
Friday 17 November 2006
By: Dylan Lobo, Funds Reporter
Fidelity Special Values investment trust manager, Anthony Bolton, is moving into defensive stocks in anticipation of a more severe correction in markets than the one experienced earlier this year. Bolton said: ‘After three and a half years of a bull market, a more sustained correction than witnessed in May is probable.’
Bolton, who is stepping down from direct fund management at the end of 2007, feels attractive valuations, continuing merger and acquisition activity and high commodity prices will support share prices in the short-term. However, he said the number of stocks that meet his investment criteria has fallen. He said: ‘This partly reflects the fact that valuations continue to become compressed. Low valued stocks have generally been recognised by the market and re-rated upwards, while the premium of more highly valued stocks has fallen. ‘Furthermore, many traditional value stocks, which have performed well for some time, look expensive in comparison to historical norms.’
Given these concerns, Bolton is searching for lower risk, undervalued, high quality growth stocks that offer a good return on capital. He believes large-caps are more attractive following the performance of small and mid-caps during recent years. Bolton said: ‘Value opportunities among small and medium-sized companies became scarce as a consequence of their three-year bull run. In addition, investor appetite for risk increased, despite fundamental indicators proving otherwise.’
Bolton’s comments come on the back of a 19.4% return on his Fidelity Special Values investment trust (FSV) over the last year. Exposure to oil and gas companies, media, pharmaceutical and travel and leisure stocks helped drive performance. The trust had no exposure to general industrials, tobacco, aerospace and defence stocks.
BEARISH !
Metals and oils plummet amid US growth fears
By Philip Thornton, Economics Correspondent
Published: 18 November 2006
Stock, metals and oil markets were locked in a vicious downward spiral yesterday amid growing fears of a sharp downturn in the American economy. A knock-on effect on share prices from a sell-off in commodities worsened after a plunge in new US housebuilding projects revived fears of a slump in property prices in the world's largest economy. In London, the FTSE 100 fell more than 1 per cent along with most Continental markets, while the Nasdaq index in New York was down 0.5 per cent. Losses on base metals prices also hit British mining shares with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata all down between 4 and 6 per cent.
Stephen Lewis, at Insinger de Beaufort bank, said: "The weakness in oil futures, which seems to be spreading by contagion to other commodity markets, looks very much like the first episode in one of those chain collapses in asset values, which have been characteristic of market behaviour in recent years." The falls came just a day after Sir John Gieve, deputy governor at the Bank of England, warned that a financial crisis in one region or country could spread through the rest of the world.
Oil prices suffered a second successive sell-off, plunging 2.5 per cent after Thursday's 4 per cent fall. Crude prices fell $1.40, or 2.5 per cent, to $54.86 a barrel, the lowest since June 2005. The market was hit by a warm weather forecast for the US east coast, high US oil inventories and growing fears of an economic slowdown. This in turn triggered a sell-off in commodity markets on concern global demand for raw materials would also suffer. This fear was heightened by news that builders started work on 1.49 million new homes in the year to October, down 15 per cent from September and the weakest since July 2000. Building permits fell 6.3 per cent, according to the Commerce Department. The price of copper, which is used extensively by housebuilders for wiring, fell 2.2 per cent to $6,645 a tonne and down 25 per cent from its peak of $8,800 hit in May. Aluminium fell $93, or 3.5 per cent, to $2,575 a tonne. Zinc and lead each lost more than 5 per cent. The fall in housing starts contributed to the fall in stock markets as analysts said it pointed to a sharper slowdown in the overall economy than has been factored in by the Federal Reserve.
James Knightley, UK economist at ING Financial Markets, said: "The outlook for house prices remains weak with further downward pressure in the coming months highly likely. This causes us concern with regard to the outlook for consumer spending, given the link with negative wealth effects and lower mortgage-equity withdrawal."
The dollar, which fell on the housing news, was also dragged down by rumours of trouble at a large US hedge fund, which was unwinding its bets on the dollar/yen exchange rate. By noon in New York, the dollar was down 0.5 per cent at ¥117.53, and 0.3 per cent against the euro.
Metals and oils plummet amid US growth fears
By Philip Thornton, Economics Correspondent
Published: 18 November 2006
Stock, metals and oil markets were locked in a vicious downward spiral yesterday amid growing fears of a sharp downturn in the American economy. A knock-on effect on share prices from a sell-off in commodities worsened after a plunge in new US housebuilding projects revived fears of a slump in property prices in the world's largest economy. In London, the FTSE 100 fell more than 1 per cent along with most Continental markets, while the Nasdaq index in New York was down 0.5 per cent. Losses on base metals prices also hit British mining shares with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata all down between 4 and 6 per cent.
Stephen Lewis, at Insinger de Beaufort bank, said: "The weakness in oil futures, which seems to be spreading by contagion to other commodity markets, looks very much like the first episode in one of those chain collapses in asset values, which have been characteristic of market behaviour in recent years." The falls came just a day after Sir John Gieve, deputy governor at the Bank of England, warned that a financial crisis in one region or country could spread through the rest of the world.
Oil prices suffered a second successive sell-off, plunging 2.5 per cent after Thursday's 4 per cent fall. Crude prices fell $1.40, or 2.5 per cent, to $54.86 a barrel, the lowest since June 2005. The market was hit by a warm weather forecast for the US east coast, high US oil inventories and growing fears of an economic slowdown. This in turn triggered a sell-off in commodity markets on concern global demand for raw materials would also suffer. This fear was heightened by news that builders started work on 1.49 million new homes in the year to October, down 15 per cent from September and the weakest since July 2000. Building permits fell 6.3 per cent, according to the Commerce Department. The price of copper, which is used extensively by housebuilders for wiring, fell 2.2 per cent to $6,645 a tonne and down 25 per cent from its peak of $8,800 hit in May. Aluminium fell $93, or 3.5 per cent, to $2,575 a tonne. Zinc and lead each lost more than 5 per cent. The fall in housing starts contributed to the fall in stock markets as analysts said it pointed to a sharper slowdown in the overall economy than has been factored in by the Federal Reserve.
James Knightley, UK economist at ING Financial Markets, said: "The outlook for house prices remains weak with further downward pressure in the coming months highly likely. This causes us concern with regard to the outlook for consumer spending, given the link with negative wealth effects and lower mortgage-equity withdrawal."
The dollar, which fell on the housing news, was also dragged down by rumours of trouble at a large US hedge fund, which was unwinding its bets on the dollar/yen exchange rate. By noon in New York, the dollar was down 0.5 per cent at ¥117.53, and 0.3 per cent against the euro.
Bullish here as well:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-2457525,00.html
My first target was 12342, next one is 12452 if we keep on trending. There is a good chance of a retracement before then though.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-2457525,00.html
My first target was 12342, next one is 12452 if we keep on trending. There is a good chance of a retracement before then though.
leovirgo
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Out for +30 points - my YMZ short. Looks like that was the low for the day. The reason I keep shorting is because I have a long only portfolio on the other hand. I wouldn't fight the trend LOL..leovirgo said:
Interest Rates Need to Rise to Curb Prices, G-20 Says
By Matthew Brockett
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks ``will need'' to raise interest rates further to contain inflation even as global growth cools, policy makers from the world's 20 largest economies said.
``Faced with potential inflationary pressures, the normalization of monetary policy underway in many G-20 countries will need to continue,'' the Group of 20 central bankers and finance ministers said in a statement in Melbourne. ``Global economic growth is expected to slow slightly from the rapid pace of the past few years.''
The fastest period of global growth in three decades is stretching production, encouraging companies to raise prices and workers to demand higher wages. The G-20 also called for more flexible currencies and a revival of the Doha trade talks to ensure growth is more evenly spread around the world.
``All central banks are on inflation alert,'' said Rory Robertson, interest rate strategist at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in Sydney. ``They are being vigilant because economies are moving toward high utilization rates and lower unemployment.''
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its key rate 17 times before pausing in August at 5.25 percent amid signs growth was slowing. The European Central Bank is poised to deliver its sixth increase in a year next month, taking its benchmark rate to 3.5 percent. Central banks in Japan, China, Australia and the U.K. may also raise rates.
mark twain uk
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Hi Pat,
You know me well, I am short again from just before lunchtime, but only with a token short, looking to see what the market will do today.
Edited: closed all shorts as the dip was minuscule, left orders to sell again if it breaks on the down side
And short again from 12,334 and 1,402, both cash. I spent the whole weekend thinking about the current state of the market and will continue to sell the rallies, only with tight stop losses and without adding to losing positions. I think the odds of a fall are much greater than those of a continues rise. I read somewhere on Friday that if the dow rally will carry on like this we'll get an annualised rise of 42%, this is stuff that although not impossibe, it is quite unlikely, so there has to be a correction at some point. The strategy of being biased on the short side appears to be correct, the problem occured last week due to gross overtrading and doubling of losing positions. That I shall not do ever again.
You know me well, I am short again from just before lunchtime, but only with a token short, looking to see what the market will do today.
Edited: closed all shorts as the dip was minuscule, left orders to sell again if it breaks on the down side
And short again from 12,334 and 1,402, both cash. I spent the whole weekend thinking about the current state of the market and will continue to sell the rallies, only with tight stop losses and without adding to losing positions. I think the odds of a fall are much greater than those of a continues rise. I read somewhere on Friday that if the dow rally will carry on like this we'll get an annualised rise of 42%, this is stuff that although not impossibe, it is quite unlikely, so there has to be a correction at some point. The strategy of being biased on the short side appears to be correct, the problem occured last week due to gross overtrading and doubling of losing positions. That I shall not do ever again.
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mark twain uk
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Pat494 said:
The good news is that one of us is going to be proved right!
Atilla
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Hook Shot said:
On my hourly charts the Dow is well up for a Dip to around 12324. One of my most reliable predictions is price v MACD divergence and I'm watching it unfold.
The NASDAQ100 is shuffling in a nice range between 1805 - 1790. Shorting that too at the mo.
The SPX500 is strugling with the 1400 mark. I'm a little worried and feel that if the 1400 is broken by the SPX500 it will signal a major move upwards. I'm maintaining my short position in the SPX500 with s/l at 1405 and 1410 split 50/50 of my position. My gains from over the weekend were wiped out this afternoon. Life is a beach and then you drown.
I have read a number of realy interesting articles about shares earnings and the expected near term future. The numbers don't add up to me. I have formulated a theory of my own.
The US administration have pumped $300bn into this Iraqi war (war on terror), plus $20bn donated by various international countries and bodies marked for rebuilding Iraq. Where are these $ollars going?
Certainly not Iraq! - Have a read of this article. US stops audit of Iraq rebuilding
What does it tell you? There is corruption and fraud in Iraq our money is wasted but hey we don't want to know where it's going? Also, all the money spent on defence contracts, operatives and soldiers and so forth got to sooner or later come home to be spent. I suspect its happening already.
I feel there is so much unaccounted money flushing around in the system this market is just going up and up.
Sooner or later, inflationary pressures with no corresponding increase in output is going to hit the US. Then we are talking interest rate rises and tax increases. The 6% budget defecit will have to be addressed. The melt down is going to be pretty severe in my opinion.
I'm holding out for that big wave when it comes. It will be a very special one especially if I get the timing just right.
mark twain uk
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post deleted: got my times all wrong
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mark twain uk
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MSFT up 3% today, something is afoot
added to my short at 29.95 cash
added to my short at 29.95 cash
Atilla - after playing around in these markets for a while and reading the blogs online - I'm starting to feel all this is just a racket. Iraq, Afghanistan.......... the list goes on. If I hadn't been a trader I probably wouldn't know the half of it but there you go.......
As for the big wave get in the queue - you've seen the posse of Bears on this board and they're waiting to be fed too............. But if the wave is as big as we hope then one day late won't make any difference
Patience I'm afraid
HS
As for the big wave get in the queue - you've seen the posse of Bears on this board and they're waiting to be fed too............. But if the wave is as big as we hope then one day late won't make any difference
Patience I'm afraid
HS