Dow 2006

[watercooled]

Vix today even lower than yesterday, the low for today 10.05, looking on a table for VIX values since February 2004 that's the lowest, that shows just how extreme it has got, but I have a feeling that it can get even extreemer

Hi Mark,

The S&P/vix was nearly 140 today another ATH. Attached is a very busy chart but the 2 lower windows show the S&P/Vix and how high it is.

Enjoy and good luck with your positions. (I am short the Dow as of yesterday as well)

Regards,
Epi

 

[leovirgo]

Still no swing short entry yet. But my paintbar system has just turned red.. suspicious time.. normally closing time green bars are ideal to buy.. what will happen to this red bars on close? Another attempt to short.. again..again... SHORT YMZ06 11343...
( 30mins supter trend is still bullish bias though.. I will risk 35 points again... )

 

[Atilla]

Short NDX @ 1809

Hi Kriesa,

You were right about oil and having looked at the NDX given the state of the market I think I'll wait for confirmation around 1799 - 1798 before joining you with the short.

 

[Racer]

this is the sort of thing you want to short if that is what you want to do rather than go short and wrong

 

[kriesau]

Skating on Thin Ice
Bob Carver
Friday, November 17, 2006

Investors have enjoyed the rally since mid-July in the stock market. In the Dow Industrials, the gain has been almost 14% in just about 17 weeks. In fact, if the rally continued over a whole year at the same pace, the Dow would be up over 42%. Obviously, this isn't very likely to happen and some kind of correction is going to see some of those gains given back. Such a continuous string of gains builds up trading profits for the bulls and corrections are the mechanism by which the market allows those profits to be liquidated. When an advance has gone on for such a long time, the correction is likely to be sharp.

Now, each stock has its own personality and dynamics and will follow its own rythm, and some indices will top before others. Traditionally, the broad market and tech stocks will top first, followed by the blue chips. That process has already started as the broad market appears to be puting in a top. However, the tech stocks are still relatively strong and the blue chips are even stronger. Eventually, all will succumb to the pressure of too much paper profit and too little liquidity to bid prices higher.

Sentiment shows that OEX traders remain overly-bullish, but QQQQ traders are growing concerned about the market. However, since option expiration is Friday, some of this may simply be due to expiration "noise".

 

[mark twain uk]

this is the sort of thing you want to short if that is what you want to do rather than go short and wrong

The secret is to go short before the 600 points drop in two days, but how do you do that? Before the big drop the chart looked very bullish, so only the lucky ones caught the drop

 

[FetteredChinos]

well the gap down, that then closed substantially down could have signalled a short entry in the region of 16350.. then the failure to close the gap also seemed bearish.

trailing stops to take you out..

simple in hindsight, isnt it?

 

[Hook Shot]

The secret is to go short before the 600 points drop in two days, but how do you do that? Before the big drop the chart looked very bullish, so only the lucky ones caught the drop

I know what you mean Mark - I'd been watching this one climb towards 17k and in the 3rd drive up so everything right to look for a pullback of some sort ... but in the end I got distracted found myself in two minds - as you do - so missed the whole shebang. Silly Me but Well done Racer though.

 

[mark twain uk]

that's a bit better, closed the rest of the scalp from last night's high, still short, looking to see what the rest of the day will pan out

 

[kriesau]

Housing Construction Plunges in October
Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
November 17,

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Housing construction plunged to the lowest level in more than six years in October as the nation's once-booming housing market slowed further. The Commerce Department reported on Friday that construction of new single-family homes and apartments dropped to an annual rate of 1.486 million units last month, down a sharp 14.6 percent from the September level. The decline, bigger than had been expected, was the largest percentage decline in 19 months and pushed total activity down to the lowest level since July 2000. Applications for new building permits fell for an eighth consecutive month, declining 6.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.535 million units.

The housing weakness trimmed a full percentage point off economic growth in the July-September quarter, when the economy expanded at a tepid 1.6 percent rate. Housing is expected to continue acting as a drag over the next year but analysts believe the adverse effects of falling sales and construction cutbacks will not be enough to pull the country into a recession. There were signs that the steep plunge in housing was beginning to level off. The monthly survey of builder sentiment edged up slightly in early November following another small increase in October. It marked the first back-to-back improvements in builder sentiment since June 2005.

The level of building activity in October was 27.4 percent below activity in October 2005, the biggest year-over-year decline since March 1991.

Construction of single-family homes fell by 15.9 percent in October from the seasonally adjusted September level, dropping to an annual rate of 1.177 million units. Construction of multi-family units dropped by 9.1 percent to an annual rate of 309,000 units.

 

[Hook Shot]

If this is it why is the market giving us so much time to get on board ?????

 

[FetteredChinos]

looks like i might be buying again near the close today..

seems to be working off a bit of its overbought nature at the moment.

hopefully nothing more than a gentle drift lower for a couple of days.

fc

 

[mark twain uk]

out for now, recouped 50% of this week's loses, will get the rest by "normal" trading instead of playing russian rullette, will have a better weekend

 

[FetteredChinos]

well done mark. am glad you got most of it back. its never nice to blow up..

i had a similar scary moment on cable earlier this year. was not nice..took a year's profits out in the space of a few days..

thats the last time i ever add to losing positions..

FC

 

[mark twain uk]

thats the last time i ever add to losing positions..

FC

This is probably one of the worst mistakes to make, and probably the most difficult to deal with

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup..

every time im tempted to do so, i try to remember what happened..

it was my own version of aversion therapy! the equivalent of having electrodes fastened to my knackers..

 

[mark twain uk]

That's why I got out today, some two years ago, or was it last year, I got caught £10 short on the ftse, doubled when it went against me, doubled again, and again, not only that, but moved the stop losses every time it got close, and ended with an £80 short and £25k down, it stopped within 20 points of my final, last stop loss, and got back some £20k out of the £25k, or something like this, I still owe dc a case of reds, he helped me with some good advice at the time.

So it seems I had learnt a lesson, but not well enough.

 

[FetteredChinos]

ouch mark.. that sounds mightily painful.. am glad you got out of it relatively unscathed..

 

[FetteredChinos]

currently looking for a short scalp if 12,275 goes..

 

[catracho]

If this is it why is the market giving us so much time to get on board ?????

probably cos most people are buying the dips, the market will only collapse when the majority are long.....