Dow 2006

[Silvertip]

Have the PPT took a Christmas cruise, who is supervising the Dow today ?

I fancy investing in an Xbox 360 as not many developers appear to have took advantage of PSP3's new hardware yet. Had a look on Sonys website and the graphics of the current software that have been programmed ready for the European release are not a patch on Gear of War. It may take a year or so for the PSP3 to surpass the Xbox graphics.

 

[Atilla]

Atilla

there are not triangles my rt software has an automatic pattern finder, but i use it to see the price length retracement and extension
i left them on there so that anyone can see that the A leg and the C leg are more or less the same, ideally i want lower but i always aim for the minimum. once its there then i either pull out totally or leave some on the table either way its a win win situation i also been trading the collapse of US bonds today that was pretty obvious trade
had a quick peek at microsoft the monthly looks like it could start to have some consolidation maybe a sideways move for a while the 31 area look attractive dont really trade it so im not too fussed what it does
xbox 360 is awesome the graphics are great especially gear of war been trying to get nintendo Wii should be called Piis becasue its definately taking the..... just kind find it anywhere

Oh... Well that explains why I can't find any other references to triangles. Thank you for letting me know. I've looked up "rt software" and it seems quite something else.

I purchased MetaStock few years back but didn't appreciate it before. I'm pondering about re-installing and renewing my subscription again.

I never looked at Bonds before. Just checked CMC have them too. Looks like a nice drop today. I expect it's because the concensus seems to be developing on the a fall of US rates.

Regarding MSoft, I was guestimating it might well fall to 29.40 for starters... I've heard good things about the XBox and I think PS3 have lost out by delaying it's console with the BlueRay disk. Apparently BlueRay was the major cause of delay. I don't understand why Wii or PS3 announce consoles before xmas and then have stock shortages. Management should be shot with pellets or something nasty.

Regarding Wii one of my friends brother got it by doing a deal with the security guards of the store who told him some side doors open before the main door where queues form. Smart kiddo.

 

[hobby]

Still running my Dow short, like I say no graphs involed in my decision - just common sense. Heaps of bad news stories coming out, but still the US mkts went North to reach new records every other day.....stupidy.

Just read this...

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

"In summary, for this past week we have a total of 20 hard landing news and 5 soft landing news: the housing recession is worsening; the manufacturing recession is worsening; the real corporate investment recession is worsening; consumer confidence is falling; only actual consumption is still holding...but for how long?
"

 

[andycan]

Oh... Well that explains why I can't find any other references to triangles. Thank you for letting me know. I've looked up "rt software" and it seems quite something else.

I purchased MetaStock few years back but didn't appreciate it before. I'm pondering about re-installing and renewing my subscription again.

I never looked at Bonds before. Just checked CMC have them too. Looks like a nice drop today. I expect it's because the concensus seems to be developing on the a fall of US rates.

Regarding MSoft, I was guestimating it might well fall to 29.40 for starters... I've heard good things about the XBox and I think PS3 have lost out by delaying it's console with the BlueRay disk. Apparently BlueRay was the major cause of delay. I don't understand why Wii or PS3 announce consoles before xmas and then have stock shortages. Management should be shot with pellets or something nasty.

Regarding Wii one of my friends brother got it by doing a deal with the security guards of the store who told him some side doors open before the main door where queues form. Smart kiddo.

its very simple basic marketing
create the desire then buyers are no longer opportunists but emotional buyers
which means they buy the console hardware and every game with it
also availability is mid jan and guess whats in jan

 

[Atilla]

its very simple basic marketing
create the desire then buyers are no longer opportunists but emotional buyers
which means they buy the console hardware and every game with it
also availability is mid jan and guess whats in jan

I see what you mean but gut instincts tell me after the initial buzz sales numbers will not reflect hype. In fact I'd go for the Wii so that I can start getting my kids ready to become Wimbledon champions someday.

You've got me about mid jan though. Mid-jan is when not much happens. Everyone recovers from the hangover, no money, no sales. World Games maybe.. :?:

Hobby,

I like that link you listed. I look at the fundamentals and follow current affairs closely but still use Technical Analysis to gauge timing.

Like sometimes,
1. The Fed will announce interest rates rises and analysts will say cool this is a sign the economy is strengthening and shares will go up.
2. Analysts anticipating an interest rate rise will say oh no interest rates are going to rise and stock markets will fall as the rise will hit profits.
3. The Fed will announce interest rate falls and analysts will say oh no interest rates have fallen the economy is weak and rising $ will cause inflation.

The economics and fundamentals are good to get relationships and mechanisms and direction right and interesting debate but TA is the ultimate.

I would say I'm a beginner - text book style - with a 20MA trading system. I would strongly recommend technical charts for your trades when timing your entries and exits.

 

[hobby]

The economics and fundamentals are good to get relationships and mechanisms and direction right and interesting debate but TA is the ultimate.

I would say I'm a beginner - text book style - with a 20MA trading system. I would strongly recommend technical charts for your trades when timing your entries and exits.

I should perhaps clarify my handle...Hobby, doesn't mean trading is just a passing interest to me (though it's not my full time job either) I've been an active trader since the early nineties! When I came to register on this site I had to pick a name quickly at random...my name is Rob & my wife's family are Brazilian...they all pronounce Rs as Hs....hence Robby=Hobby!

Ok, wrt TA.....well, I'd be a fool not to keep my ear to the ground wrt to TA (that's why I visit here to tap into the mood...I also have a friend who is really big on it & we exchange views a lot), but at the end of the it's fundamentals looking forward that I prefer to analyse.

I've watched agog, as the markets have gone an never ending relatively straight line up since July! It's a joke......they say the markets are efficient, b*ll**** - if they were that efficient, how come the dow has risen 1600 points since May?! Were they all wrong then? Or are they all right now? It matters not...the markets aren't efficient ...& that presents opportunity too. As we all know, they're driven by greed & fear....we've had 6 months of greed in the face of some pretty ropey data IMHO - the greed/fear balance has got out of kilter (witness the VIX reaching record lows a couple of weeks ago).

The past few days of US economic data have been relatively pants...yet still the mkt strode onwards & upwards....nothing but froth IMHO (& the forever age old expectation of a Santa Rally etc, etc....even though Santa has been handing out presents since July!). Like I say...the short I placed yesterday was a no brainer...I've just this minute closed it at 12338 as they may try & buy the dips over the holiday period (& I'll not be anywhere near a trading screen!)....after all, buying the dips is what all & sundry been programmed to do - it's served them very well since 2002!

I'll retreat to the sidelines until the new year.

Merry Xmas to you all....this board seems a great place - just needs a bit more posting liquidity!

 

[tricks]

I should perhaps clarify my handle...Hobby, doesn't mean trading is just a passing interest to me (though it's not my full time job either) I've been an active trader since the early nineties! When I came to register on this site I had to pick a name quickly at random...my name is Rob & my wife's family are Brazilian...they all pronounce Rs as Hs....hence Robby=Hobby!

Ok, wrt TA.....well, I'd be a fool not to keep my ear to the ground wrt to TA (that's why I visit here to tap into the mood...I also have a friend who is really big on it & we exchange views a lot), but at the end of the it's fundamentals looking forward that I prefer to analyse.

I've watched agog, as the markets have gone an never ending relatively straight line up since July! It's a joke......they say the markets are efficient, b*ll**** - if they were that efficient, how come the dow has risen 1600 points since May?! Were they all wrong then? Or are they all right now? It matters not...the markets aren't efficient ...& that presents opportunity too. As we all know, they're driven by greed & fear....we've had 6 months of greed in the face of some pretty ropey data IMHO - the greed/fear balance has got out of kilter (witness the VIX reaching record lows a couple of weeks ago).

The past few days of US economic data have been relatively pants...yet still the mkt strode onwards & upwards....nothing but froth IMHO (& the forever age old expectation of a Santa Rally etc, etc....even though Santa has been handing out presents since July!). Like I say...the short I placed yesterday was a no brainer...I've just this minute closed it at 12338 as they'll may try & buy the dips over the holiday period (& I'll not be anywhere near a trading screen!)....after all, buying the dips is what all & sundry been programmed to do - it's served them very well since 2002!

I'll retreat to the sidelines until the new year.

Merry Xmas to you all....this board seems a great place - just needs a bit more posting liquidity!

Very good post Rob (or is that Hob, ha ha). Could'nt agree more with your observations, along with many other 'shorters' on here; I'm sure. As for the 'posting liquidity' comment, I also have to say that a lot of the regular posters could try a bit harder to communicate in a more helpful fashion? No offence intended!

Merry Xmas and a prosperous New Year to all.

Cheers - Tricks

 

[andycan]

I see what you mean but gut instincts tell me after the initial buzz sales numbers will not reflect hype. In fact I'd go for the Wii so that I can start getting my kids ready to become Wimbledon champions someday.

You've got me about mid jan though. Mid-jan is when not much happens. Everyone recovers from the hangover, no money, no sales. World Games maybe.. :?:

Hobby,

I like that link you listed. I look at the fundamentals and follow current affairs closely but still use Technical Analysis to gauge timing.

Like sometimes,
1. The Fed will announce interest rates rises and analysts will say cool this is a sign the economy is strengthening and shares will go up.
2. Analysts anticipating an interest rate rise will say oh no interest rates are going to rise and stock markets will fall as the rise will hit profits.
3. The Fed will announce interest rate falls and analysts will say oh no interest rates have fallen the economy is weak and rising $ will cause inflation.

The economics and fundamentals are good to get relationships and mechanisms and direction right and interesting debate but TA is the ultimate.

I would say I'm a beginner - text book style - with a 20MA trading system. I would strongly recommend technical charts for your trades when timing your entries and exits.

the jan sales!!!
they last all month

 

[Silvertip]

If this is the start of a decent sized correction lets hope there is plenty of volatility to go with it.

Best Wishes eveybody.

 

[Pat494]

Gotta work on the self discipline bit
up down
up down
up down
or is it
in out
in out
Whatever
have a good Xmas folks ++++++++++++0000000000

 

[Silvertip]

Rebound today perhaps the result of some shorts covering their New Year positions.

Initial Jobless Claims out tommorow 13.50 GMT.

 

[Atilla]

Rebound today perhaps the result of some shorts covering their New Year positions.

Initial Jobless Claims out tommorow 13.50 GMT.

Yes and the strength of it is quite shocking considering the holiday period.

I haven't got the enthusiasm to join the rally though. Kicking my self for not jumping on board yesterday when the S&P500 was at 1415. If it brakes 1430 I may decide to go long.

Some people are now talking on Bloomberg it's heading towards 1444.

I think January is going to be a cracking month to watch.

 

[Bez]

The Dow has gone into that Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern that I could not rule out back on the 4th of Dec...

We are now in the 5th of (V) of 3 and the thing with Ed's is, we often get a sharp correction back to the start point ...so a fast 600 point drop is not out of the question. The 5=1 comes in around the 12630 area and the 200% ext of the may/June correction is at 12650 so some key price levels to watch.

Any way a chart always helps

 

[Silvertip]

Yes I tend to agree the Dow is still rising and 12700 has been my target ever since the breakout above 12450. Must say I didnt expect as many shakeouts of the longs as we have had, but thats the Dow for you.

 

[andycan]

could go down but downside targets were met
still thin and i dont trust the downmove
and thats rare for me because i would be shorting the crap out of it

 

[Bez]

This is my favoured 60min view.....

 

[Silvertip]

Bez on your daily chart you have a supercycle point (V) due up around mid 12600.. Just out of interest, are you using the 25/10/04 low as the seed of the 1st impulsive?

Trying to interpret your chart here, have you identified a minor converging with a Supercycle? Is this what you are suggesting?

 

[Bez]

I can force a few counts on the INDU but after some time out on the beach and now having another scan of things this EXP Flat seems to sit well....

I posted this in Nov but it gives the idea..

The last chart with the V on it just shows where we're at in the higher W3 of the C wave in the Exp Flat count..

The problem I have is that the Super longer term delta point low came in on the July lows and the next point isn't due for a good while so I carn't put a to bearish count on that doesn't allow for a reasonable time window into the next Super longer term point due in 08.

Hope this kinda makes sence ??

 

[Bez]

The other popular count is this....

The only slight problem I have with this is the time for the larger degree wave IV its only two years which seems to short on time proportion ?

 

[Silvertip]

Yes its all very confusing, thats the issue with this type of analysis, it becomes subjective even when you apply quite strict rules. All in all, there is no technical basis confirming a short entry based upon more advanced charting techniques within the INDU at this point in time, so therefore only one solution that compliments the bread tin is available until such a signal is generated IMO, however that solution is more effective than waiting