Does anybody think gold will fall?

[jls483]

I am trying to decide what the likely price range of gold is going to be over the next couple of years. From just looking at fairly recent charts I got the impression that apart from a really scary peak in 1980 it has been knocking around between 250 and 500 with if anything a general decline in the price.

Since the price of gold bottomed out at about $250 in 2000 we have seen a slow increase to the current price of $380.

Every where I hear that gold is beginning a fantastic new bull market for gold. Mainly because the dollar is in a mess. I've been looking through some articles that can be found on kitco.com and I now have the impression that gold is about to zoom up to $1000/ounce (I have now found out kitco.com are in the gold business and might be a little biased).

So my question is - is anybody bearish on gold? I've heard all the arguments about why gold must rise - what are the forces keeping it from taking off?

Many thanks for any insights.

John.

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi John

I'm bullish on Gold purely because of the dollar mess. Maybe I've brought into the hype to, but there are solid economic reasons for the $ falling and gold rising (you know when I don't trade something because I start talking about the economics :cheesy: )

The attached chart is of US Gold futures, which I presume move the same way as the London ones.
I vote above $450 purely based on economics although the chart would suggest an upward move

 

[orchard]

Well I've put my neck on the line in a very bullish way, a whole £1 on CS simulated account :cheesy:

Very limited timescale for trading there, but so far am in profit

Of course, today is my first day

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Although am flat atm i'd like to see gold pullback to nearer the 370/375 area again before taking longs again.

For a short a break and hold below 365 would be nice

Overall i am on the fence but looking over urging the bulls to have a run around the field

 

[bonsai]

what are the forces keeping it from taking off?

I am no longer convinced of the dollar 'hedge' agurments to drive the prices to serious new highs. I believe gold is now just another commodity. Supply and demand. Now if you could corner supply ?
Then that would be another matter. Remember Mr Hunt ?

Just look at the chart ?
It may be 20 odd years ago. But Prices have memories ?
After the 29 crash, how long before we had a new high ?
And that was a stockmarket, not a zero yielding asset.
I couldn't swear to it, but I do believe that every rally will bring out a stale bull. Especially because of the inert qualities of the substance.

And then there are government policies about how much gold to hold ?


Still very tradeable of course, but taking off ? How high ?

 

[peto]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/dmr1.php is my home page, and offers an interesting daily take on the gold market, relatively un-biased. I'm optomistic long-term and hold a couple of usa-listed gold miners in an isa, and buy dips via spread bets. I also find large daily moves an indicater of how the dow mood will pan out (inverse relationship of course)

 

[Beach Runner]

Peto,

Nice interesting "homepage". Thanks for mentioning it. I'll be back.

 

[bgold]

Be (in) Gold?

You will probably not be surprised that bgold will have a positive outlook on gold. That said I am neutral the metal and slowly considering going short some of the miners.

A gold price in low 400's in next few months might very well be possible. So, is in my mind, $600+ in a few years but for outlook in next few months, I am not convinced.

See attached daily chart:
- I see 3-4 tops in low $390's (based on Dec contract). Still hasn't closed above $390 (no doubt that it will happen today!)
- Oscilators all display negative divergence,
But also,
- Commitment of Traders shows that funds and other speculators are long and commercials (eg insiders are short). Commercials have NEVER lost this battle!
- Central banks continue selling and dehedging by miners is slowing.

Ok, USD weakness and other imbalances in US point to further rise in gold price, but all that info is in the price of gold already!!

I am not convinced that this bullrun will continue and will wait before putting nest eggs in gold. Same applies for Silver, which has had a supply shortage for the past 6-7 years.


PS. Question about gold price is not very precise. I suspect that by end-2004, we will (again) be below $400!! Anyway, who knows, just surrender to market forces.

 

[PeterTT]

I am a gold bull.. bought into a Gold Mining Isa early this year at about USD 320 so pretty pleased with the performance so far ! Also long of a few UNHEDGED gold mines via spreadbets. Always try to chose goldmines that do not forward sell too much (few big ones are NEM, FCX and Harmony)

Peter

 

[new_trader]

I am trying to decide what the likely price range of gold is going to be over the next couple of years. From just looking at fairly recent charts I got the impression that apart from a really scary peak in 1980 it has been knocking around between 250 and 500 with if anything a general decline in the price.

Since the price of gold bottomed out at about $250 in 2000 we have seen a slow increase to the current price of $380.

Every where I hear that gold is beginning a fantastic new bull market for gold. Mainly because the dollar is in a mess. I've been looking through some articles that can be found on kitco.com and I now have the impression that gold is about to zoom up to $1000/ounce (I have now found out kitco.com are in the gold business and might be a little biased).

So my question is - is anybody bearish on gold? I've heard all the arguments about why gold must rise - what are the forces keeping it from taking off?

Many thanks for any insights.

John.

Gold @ $380 looks like a bargain now

Maybe in a few years time, $1380 will look like a bargain?