Dax - February

[DaxTrader]

Meant to do something about putting up a post for Feb earlier, but to be honest have found Jan very difficult and busy looking at €$ futures.

But, here we go anyway.

The 3 pushes up on the 60 min or daily charts into the 4150 area have set in a steady down trend in a sort of channel.
Personally I find trading the countertrend drift incredibly hard, as it is now. Not a powerful trend, more a choppy drift.

Would be very suprised if the big swing level pullback on the 13th of Jan (3982 March Futures) didn't provide some strong support, even if it doesn't send the market back to it's highs. Currently in last 2 days there have been strong divergences on 60 min and some sharp buying bounces as it probes the 4000 area.

Hope the chart attached reads ok.

Good luck

 

[DaxTrader]

Looks like no interest in Dax February thread, assume it has something to do with Dax's great volatility as a trading index (NOT!)

either that or I've offended someone

16 tick range after 6 hours, appalling.

 

[qaza]

DT

Are you aware of any reason for the death of the dax ?

 

[DaxTrader]

No I'm not.

Have read a lot above volatility going from one extreme to the other - maybe this is the low vol extreme from the Dax's high vol in the dotcom period.

According to Vdax here http://de.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VDAX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=b it has been in freefall and has just picked up in last week or so, but can't see that miself.

 

[mully]

Can I also see 5 waves on the DAX

Ahead of the latest IFO survey, note the possible 5 wave count from yesterday.

 

[DaxTrader]

60 min chart seems to show dax congestion breaking to the downside.

Historical Volatility is now as low as 16% - arggghhhhh

 

[dax]

DaxTrader

This superlow volatility definitely requires some heavy concentration. I guarantee that if you walk away to take a break a move will unfold.

 

[mully]

I presume the low at 4008 in early Feb should provide some support?

 

[mully]

DAX daily chart

Here is the chart

 

[mully]

well obviously 4008 didn't provide support. That leaves 3980.

 

[DaxTrader]

Dax - agree, loads of concerntration

Problem is, these trend moves like today which used to occur 3 times a week are now so rare :-(

I was long in the Euro, watching the Dax fall, typical

3980 area has gotta be key as you say Mully

 

[dax]

DaxTrader

Agree...lack of follow-through has been the issue. Moves have been unreliable and you have to be prepared to abandon ship if it doesn't move. And it hasn't moved that much recently...take a look at the weekly ATR in the cash index.

 

[DaxTrader]

no follow through is exactly it

the only follow through at this end has been the other kind


:cheesy:

 

[splasher]

With the Dax (and i guess with FTSE also) do you believe the technical support and resistance levels are more important in the cash or the futures.
ie do you watch the cash market where a key level may be 3980 or would you focus on the future where a level may be say 4000?
I guess the question is do the futures lead the cash index or vice versa.........does that make sense?
Splash

 

[bonsai]

splasher
the futures lead the cash more often than not.
but the cleaner signals seem to come from the cash on both indices.

 

[DaxTrader]

agree, tend to be more spikes in the futures which cloud the patterns.

cash has clearer patterns, having said that I still only chart futures - doh !

 

[bonsai]

with F.V only about 5pts, you can also tell if futures may be taking you to the cleaners ?

edit

splasher
I am assuming you are not a scalper,in which case you have no choice but rather looking 20pt+ moves ?

 

[splasher]

I have tried scalping but really struggle with it as my pain threshold is very low if i know it is a short term trade and my timing seems to be awful on the Dax.
1-4 day trades are my favourites at present as even if my entry point is bad it tends to swing back in mt direction.
Reason for question was that i only watch the futures and my own support and resistance points but reading the threads it is very interesting to see people talking about differeent points they are watching for.
I was wondering if my bad timing was due to me watching one thing and the rest of the world watching something else as this would explain getting direction right but poor order entry.

I use GNI for futures prices, any good pointers for live cash prices?

Splash

 

[BKuerbs]

Re scalping the FDAX the Elitetraderboard offers some interesting threads. They are a bit lengthy, but maybe of interest to you:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=26299

and

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=25416

The latter one contains only a few bits of useful information, as its primary purpose has been to advertise the service of Velocity Futures. But who knows, it may just be something you are interested in.

Regards

Bernd Kuerbs

 

[hammer]

Double top on dax (at 4050) with target at 4000??? Anyone shorting it?