[DARWIN] BSL by GAlbano76

[CavaliereVerde]

A solid trackrecord from my old friend @GAlbano76
Discipline and persistence, keep on and let's go with a description!

 

[GAlbano76]

I was trying to add another description of BSL but this time I will do it in reverse: if there is someone interested in BSL I'm here to reply to all the questions which may arise.
For sure I'm very confident in the way BSL trades and for the time being I'm expecting as soon as possible the return of a strong performance.

Trade safe, invest safe

 

[GAlbano76]

Hi all!

BSL is FLAT from 1 year ago... and this is not what I wanted and what I was expecting from my ALGOs.
Maybe market is changed (it's a strong possibility since covid impacted everything in march....) or my expectations were biased. I'm more inclined to think that market IS changed from what I can find and from how I tested and implemented my systems.
So what now? Hopefully, as who follow me from the start should know, I designed three different kind of trading systems, and in the last year there was one who continued to make profit, very good profit.... it was BSL life buoy..... "type 3" systems.... or as I called them "trend/cyclical" .....
I decided that in the next days I will "shut down" all not "type 3" systems: I'm doing so very convinced and without any stress as since the beginning "type 3" were the kind of systems I liked most. They tend to trade always with the main trend but to enter always when there is a pullback. Easy to say not easy to do.... well since now they do!
So from now on BSL will trade with 3 different systems but all with the same methodology.
I will let Darwinex Risk manager to adjust to the change..... as I want to reduce the max DD risk (expected) to 20% for the underlying account and for doing this I will reduce the max number of total contract... (now was 1.2 lots for 5000€ will be 0.30 lots for 5000€).... I think in the long run this will be the best....

As always be free to ask!

 

[CavaliereVerde]

I will reduce the max number of total contract... (now was 1.2 lots for 5000€ will be 0.30 lots for 5000€).... I think in the long run this will be the best....

Do that gradually!

Even if it hasn't produced return your strategy portfolio has been very stable an balanced during 2020, keep on!
Patience and discipline make the difference!

 

[VolcanoFX]

Hello, read your considerations, unfortunately it is difficult to get to the head of the eternal struggle between what makes a profit yesterday but no longer does today.

Always remember that the rules change and what is valid today may be valid as it may not be valid for tomorrow.

I'm sure you have made all the necessary considerations, but I recommend to keep track of systems you are about to disconnect. I recommend you also the gradualness in the elimination of exposure.

 

[GAlbano76]

Hello, read your considerations, unfortunately it is difficult to get to the head of the eternal struggle between what makes a profit yesterday but no longer does today.

Always remember that the rules change and what is valid today may be valid as it may not be valid for tomorrow.

I'm sure you have made all the necessary considerations, but I recommend to keep track of systems you are about to disconnect. I recommend you also the gradualness in the elimination of exposure.

Hi Volcano! I will think about that. Maybe I can keep them with 0.01 lots (now 0.06-0,12) ..... just to keep trace..... As you said I have done my "homework" and I think that as type3 systems worked well al the year and also in my backtests (when all the systems worked) ... they are more stable and profitable then all the other systems.... and I don't think it's just a "now" situation.... in real trading we are talking about over 500 trades (150-200 each) that is starting to be a nice sample.

 

[VolcanoFX]

You are right, of course! If the number of trades considered in your sample is high and in line with MAs of the system itself, due to direct proportionality you have a level of granularity that allows you to have a more concrete evaluation, IMO 150 per year spread over your Time Frame is sufficient for the purpose. My opinion, as you have correctly understood, it was to keep track of disconnected components, just for the scientific purpose, also out of your actual algo-composition, since it is already complicated to distinguish a negative year for a type of strategy (regardless of the type of entry) compared to the exhaustion of performance of a component taken individually, then this year is perhaps to be considered a separate year for trading itself? Dunno, it is an eternal struggle. I'm sure you've done all your assessments/work of the case for which I don't allow myself any tipe of judgment. Good luck for all!

 

[GAlbano76]

From now on BSL is trading with only 7 systems.... three trend/cyclical and four cyclical but weighted 1/4.

 

[GAlbano76]

From now on BSL is trading with only 7 systems.... three trend/cyclical and four cyclical but weighted 1/4.

UPDATE: finally I got there.... now BSL will work with 2 different type of systems: one trend/cyclical and one trend.

The weight is 72% trend/cyclical and 18% trend. I decided for now to stop using full cyclical systems... I will consider to use them again if I see them to fit in the new "team" after a full review.

The most important thing that I want to highlight is that the approach for the new trend systems is the same I use for the cyclical/trend and the same for the cyclical one..... The tools that I use to look at market are the same.... so this are big changes but not as big as they may seems.

When the Darwinex risk manager will adjust to the new composition, I'm expecting a max DD of 10/15% and for the profit I have huge expectation but for now I will not provide a number... time will tell.

 

[GAlbano76]

Hello folks!

After the changes I made on 11/12 the underlying account is UP 4.86%
As the Risk Manager is still linked to the old BSL the number are way lower (nearly plus 1%)
I have estimated that when the RM will be alligned with the new version of BSL, the VAR will be around 6.5/7 ... so the 4,86% would have been a +7.2% .... IF I have understood how the RM works (IF ....)

The DD estimated with a VAR of 6.5/7 is a max of 15% .... the DD recovery is at most of two months

Thats all for now... and may the 2021 be the opposite of 2020!

 

[ASGTrade]

Hello folks!

After the changes I made on 11/12 the underlying account is UP 4.86%
As the Risk Manager is still linked to the old BSL the number are way lower (nearly plus 1%)
I have estimated that when the RM will be alligned with the new version of BSL, the VAR will be around 6.5/7 ... so the 4,86% would have been a +7.2% .... IF I have understood how the RM works (IF ....)

The DD estimated with a VAR of 6.5/7 is a max of 15% .... the DD recovery is at most of two months

Thats all for now... and may the 2021 be the opposite of 2020!

The one grouse I have with the company is that only very few people know for sure how the RM works. If people with years of history can't confidently say "I am making X changes and this is what the RM will do.." it's a problem.

 

[GAlbano76]

What you say it's true. But indeed I haven't dedicated too much time to analyze in the details how it works. RM reacts not only to changes in the strategy but also with the volatility of the markets traded. So it's not so easy to calculate.