Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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AUD/USD and USD/CAD React to Rising Geopolitical Risks

Commodity-linked currencies remain under pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. The United States has maintained strikes on targets in Iran, while the Tehran-backed Houthis have intensified threats to shipping in the Red Sea and near key oil transit routes. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for traditional defensive assets, supporting the US dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.

In the coming trading sessions, market participants will focus on Australia's labour market report. Employment growth is expected to slow sharply, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Weaker-than-expected figures could add pressure to AUD/USD by reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may continue easing monetary policy.

For USD/CAD, attention will also turn to the weekly US crude oil inventory data. Although geopolitical developments continue to support oil prices, the outlook for commodity-linked currencies will depend not only on the direction of the energy market but also on incoming macroeconomic data and further developments in the Middle East.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NZD/USD Analysis: A Tug-of-War at the Critical Level

The kiwi has strengthened meaningfully against most peers this month. However, against the US dollar specifically, NZD/USD remains well below its 2026 highs, trading in the mid-0.58 area versus January's peak near 0.6075.

New Zealand's Q2 inflation data, released this week, blew past expectations: annual CPI accelerated to 4.1%, above both forecasts and the RBNZ's own 3.9% projection, reinforcing the case for further tightening after the central bank's surprise hike to 2.50% earlier in July—its first in over three years.

The dollar side of the equation remains the real wildcard. June's payrolls report badly missed expectations, coming in at just 57,000, with prior months revised sharply lower, undercutting the Fed's near-term tightening case despite still-sticky core inflation near 2.9%. Markets currently assign roughly even odds to a September hike, leaving NZD/USD's next move hostage to next week's Fed decision and any further escalation in Middle East tensions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Alphabet: Record Profit as Markets Await Their Verdict

On 22 July, Alphabet reported its Q2 2026 results, with revenue rising 24% year-on-year to $119.8 billion. Google Cloud revenue surged 82% to $24.77 billion, comfortably exceeding analysts' expectations. Search advertising generated $63.3 billion in revenue (+17%), while YouTube revenue increased 13% to $11.06 billion. Net income nearly quadrupled to $112.11 billion. However, according to the company's financial statements, almost all of the increase was driven by unrealised revaluation gains on its private investments in Anthropic and SpaceX rather than by underlying operating performance. Meanwhile, quarterly capital expenditure doubled from a year earlier to $44.9 billion, reflecting continued investment in AI data centre infrastructure.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Pound Weakens After Soft UK Inflation Data as Euro Awaits Fresh Market Signals

The pound remains under pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected UK inflation data. The slowdown in inflation has strengthened expectations that the Bank of England could adopt a more accommodative policy stance in the coming months, weighing on sterling. Meanwhile, the euro continues to trade within a relatively narrow range as investors await fresh signals from the eurozone economy.

Market participants also remain cautious due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The United States continues to carry out strikes on targets in Iran, supporting demand for traditional refuge assets, including the US dollar, and limiting the recovery potential of European currencies.

Attention in the coming days will focus on the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone, which will provide an early assessment of economic conditions at the start of the third quarter. The data are particularly important for the euro, as they could influence expectations for the European Central Bank's next policy moves. Stronger-than-expected figures may support the single currency, while weaker readings could reinforce expectations of further ECB policy easing. In addition, the weekly US initial jobless claims report will provide another update on the health of the US labour market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Tesla: Complex Range Structure Breaks Down Following Quarterly Earnings

Tesla released its Q2 2026 results after the market closed on 22 July. Revenue increased 26% year-on-year to $28.24 billion, while vehicle deliveries reached a record 480,126 units. However, operating margin fell sharply to 1.4%, down from 4.1% a year earlier, and operating income declined 57% to $398 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.33, missing analysts' consensus estimates. Free cash flow also turned negative as capital expenditure surged, driven by investment in AI, Robotaxi, and Optimus projects.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Intel at a Crossroads: Earnings Beat Meets Technical Resistance

Intel has just delivered its strongest quarter in over fifteen years, and the market reaction says it all. Q2 2026 revenue surged 25% year-over-year to $16.1 billion, crushing the consensus estimate of $14.42 billion, while adjusted EPS of $0.42 nearly doubled the expected $0.21. The stock rallied over 12% in after-hours trading following the release.

The engine behind the beat was unmistakably AI: Intel's Data Center and AI segment jumped 59% year-over-year to $6.3 billion, with the company saying demand is now outpacing what its factories can supply. CEO Lip-Bu Tan pointed to faster production cycles and improved yields as key drivers behind the upside, while CFO Dave Zinsner said the company exceeded its guidance thanks to stronger execution.

There was a notable asterisk, however: Intel posted a GAAP net loss of $11 billion, driven by a $12.5 billion mark-to-market charge tied to its CHIPS Act agreement—a technical, non-operational hit that markets largely looked past. Looking ahead, Intel raised its Q3 guidance to a $16.3 billion midpoint, reinforcing confidence that this AI-driven turnaround has real momentum behind it.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson: The Week of Central Banks and Earnings

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the most critical events driving global markets.

Key topics covered in this episode:
- Fed Interest Rate Decision — 29 July, 09:00 PM GMT+3
- Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — 30 July, 02:00 PM GMT+3
- US PCE Price Index — 30 July, 03:30 PM GMT+3
- Microsoft, Meta, Apple & Amazon Earnings

The combination of central bank decisions, inflation data and Big Tech earnings could drive significant moves across currencies, equity indices and technology stocks as markets head into August.

In this environment, traders closely monitor incoming data, being flexible and getting ready for short-term volatility.

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NZD/USD: Inflation Surge Meets Strong US Dollar Pressure

On 21 July, Stats NZ reported an acceleration in inflation: the Consumer Price Index rose 1.5% in the second quarter, while the annual inflation rate climbed to 4.1%, its highest level in more than two years and slightly above analysts' consensus forecast of 4.0%. The increase was driven primarily by higher fuel prices amid tensions in the Middle East. The data was released after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate to 2.50% on 8 July, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening in September. However, the impact proved short-lived, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, causing the New Zealand dollar to surrender part of its recent gains during the second half of the week.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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US Dollar Index: A Defining Week for the King of the Markets

The dollar heads into a pivotal week trading near 101.80, just off a 15-month high, with the Fed's July 29 meeting standing as the clear focal point. Markets currently price roughly a 65% chance of a hold, though renewed Middle East escalation has kept a hike back on the table for later this year. Energy remains the wildcard: the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and blockades affecting Persian Gulf shipping lanes have pushed oil higher, reigniting inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed's messaging.

Adding to the uncertainty, private-sector hiring has slowed for a fourth straight week according to ADP data, even as jobless claims fell to a two-month low, painting a genuinely mixed labor picture. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Congressional testimony offered little directional clarity, reaffirming a commitment to price stability without tipping the committee's hand.

With the ECB decision now behind markets and flash PMI data already digested, all eyes turn to Wednesday's Fed decision as the week's true catalyst, one capable of resolving—or extending—the dollar's recent indecision.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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WTI Analysis: Gap Breaks Short-Term Trend as Price Remains Trapped Between the POC and Profile Boundary

WTI crude oil plunged by more than 7% on 27 July 2026 after the US suspended a series of strikes against Iran over the weekend, raising hopes of a diplomatic solution and the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNBC. Brent crude also fell below $90 per barrel. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Yemen's Houthi movement had claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, suggesting that the conflict remains far from resolved.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Amazon Earnings: Does the Chart Already Know Something the Numbers Don't?

All eyes are on July 30, when Amazon reports Q2 2026 earnings, with Wall Street increasingly convinced the bar has been set too low. Consensus sees EPS near $1.82-$2.26 on roughly $197 billion in revenue, but the real story is AWS: after posting its fastest growth in 15 quarters at 28% in Q1, several major banks—including Bank of America—now expect acceleration toward 32-33%, fueled by surging AI demand and Bedrock workloads tied to Anthropic and OpenAI.

That optimism comes with a catch. Amazon's $200 billion AI capex plan has already squeezed free cash flow to just $1.2 billion, and investors will be watching closely for any further guidance hike, following similar moves from Alphabet. Options markets are pricing a 6.3% swing on earnings day, above the stock's typical 5.4% post-earnings move, signaling traders expect this report to matter more than usual.

With shares up roughly 18% year-to-date and trading at a below-average forward multiple, the setup favors strength—but only if AWS growth and margin guidance clear an already demanding bar.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY and USD/CAD Test Resistance Ahead of Fresh Fed Signals

The US dollar continues to hold the upper hand against most major currencies ahead of the outcome of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. While the base-case scenario remains for interest rates to stay unchanged, markets are also pricing in the possibility of a rate hike. The Fed's decision, together with its comments on inflation, economic conditions and the future path of monetary policy, could determine the direction of the US dollar over the coming weeks.

Another factor supporting the dollar is the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Despite the temporary suspension of US strikes on Iran and renewed diplomatic efforts, the risk of further military escalation remains, prompting investors to remain cautious ahead of this week's key events. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, USD/JPY's approach towards multi-year highs has increased expectations of fresh warnings from Japanese authorities and raised the risk of currency intervention. For USD/CAD, oil prices remain another important driver: weaker crude prices continue to limit support for the Canadian dollar and help preserve the pair's bullish potential.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD: All Eyes on the Fed as the Range Reaches Its Breaking Point

The dollar's next move hinges on tonight's Fed decision, and this time markets genuinely don't know what to expect. While economists still lean toward a hold—with CME FedWatch odds sitting near 68.5% for no change—Kevin Warsh's hawkish rhetoric on having "no tolerance" for inflation, paired with growing internal FOMC support for a hike, has pushed hike odds up sharply from just 18% two weeks ago to over 30% today. Complicating things further, Warsh has deliberately scaled back forward guidance, meaning tonight's press conference may offer fewer clues than usual.

The euro, meanwhile, has already had its say: the ECB held rates steady at 2.25% last Thursday, as expected, with Lagarde reaffirming the 2% target while flagging that energy-driven inflation risks from the Middle East conflict have yet to fully play out. Eurozone inflation cooled to 2.8% in June, but sticky services inflation near 3.5–4% keeps the door only cautiously open for a September move in either direction.

With EUR/USD trading near 1.1408, tonight's Fed decision—not the ECB—is what will likely determine the pair's next major direction.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.