Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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AUD/USD and USD/CAD React to Rising Geopolitical Risks

Commodity-linked currencies remain under pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. The United States has maintained strikes on targets in Iran, while the Tehran-backed Houthis have intensified threats to shipping in the Red Sea and near key oil transit routes. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for traditional defensive assets, supporting the US dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.

In the coming trading sessions, market participants will focus on Australia's labour market report. Employment growth is expected to slow sharply, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Weaker-than-expected figures could add pressure to AUD/USD by reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may continue easing monetary policy.

For USD/CAD, attention will also turn to the weekly US crude oil inventory data. Although geopolitical developments continue to support oil prices, the outlook for commodity-linked currencies will depend not only on the direction of the energy market but also on incoming macroeconomic data and further developments in the Middle East.

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NZD/USD Analysis: A Tug-of-War at the Critical Level

The kiwi has strengthened meaningfully against most peers this month. However, against the US dollar specifically, NZD/USD remains well below its 2026 highs, trading in the mid-0.58 area versus January's peak near 0.6075.

New Zealand's Q2 inflation data, released this week, blew past expectations: annual CPI accelerated to 4.1%, above both forecasts and the RBNZ's own 3.9% projection, reinforcing the case for further tightening after the central bank's surprise hike to 2.50% earlier in July—its first in over three years.

The dollar side of the equation remains the real wildcard. June's payrolls report badly missed expectations, coming in at just 57,000, with prior months revised sharply lower, undercutting the Fed's near-term tightening case despite still-sticky core inflation near 2.9%. Markets currently assign roughly even odds to a September hike, leaving NZD/USD's next move hostage to next week's Fed decision and any further escalation in Middle East tensions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Alphabet: Record Profit as Markets Await Their Verdict

On 22 July, Alphabet reported its Q2 2026 results, with revenue rising 24% year-on-year to $119.8 billion. Google Cloud revenue surged 82% to $24.77 billion, comfortably exceeding analysts' expectations. Search advertising generated $63.3 billion in revenue (+17%), while YouTube revenue increased 13% to $11.06 billion. Net income nearly quadrupled to $112.11 billion. However, according to the company's financial statements, almost all of the increase was driven by unrealised revaluation gains on its private investments in Anthropic and SpaceX rather than by underlying operating performance. Meanwhile, quarterly capital expenditure doubled from a year earlier to $44.9 billion, reflecting continued investment in AI data centre infrastructure.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Pound Weakens After Soft UK Inflation Data as Euro Awaits Fresh Market Signals

The pound remains under pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected UK inflation data. The slowdown in inflation has strengthened expectations that the Bank of England could adopt a more accommodative policy stance in the coming months, weighing on sterling. Meanwhile, the euro continues to trade within a relatively narrow range as investors await fresh signals from the eurozone economy.

Market participants also remain cautious due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The United States continues to carry out strikes on targets in Iran, supporting demand for traditional refuge assets, including the US dollar, and limiting the recovery potential of European currencies.

Attention in the coming days will focus on the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone, which will provide an early assessment of economic conditions at the start of the third quarter. The data are particularly important for the euro, as they could influence expectations for the European Central Bank's next policy moves. Stronger-than-expected figures may support the single currency, while weaker readings could reinforce expectations of further ECB policy easing. In addition, the weekly US initial jobless claims report will provide another update on the health of the US labour market.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.