Cotton

[DaveT]

Ok. Jonny, but I also trade using common sense.

I would never SHORT into a rising market until/unless a FIRM TOP was indicated BY PRICE.

These systems will never work unless you take certain basic principles as read. (red?)

PS - I do not see SELL signals (as exactly prescribed by the method) in OCT, NOV or DEC. Remember all 3 conditions must occut AT THE SAME TIME , joined by the vertical line drwn.

It is not meant to be a mechanical system, merely a method to enhance trading signals.

 

[neil]

MACD

Out of many indicators available, if I have to use one, for swing/longer term trading, I think it would be good old MACD.

 

[JonnyT]

Sorry mate following your 1) 2) 3) rules thats exactly what I see...

In all cases:

1) Slow Stoch has moved from avove 80 to below
2) MACD diff has crossed 0
3) MACD OSC (blue) has crossed belowEMA (red line)

JonnyT

 

[DaveT]

JonnyT - Re. DEC 03 GOLD -

We are obviously reading it differently.

I can't draw a vertical line in OCT , NOV or DEC where each threshold is crossed simultaneously. (There are a couple in SEPT)

Herein lies the reason why Technical Analysis is often decresibed as an ART , not a science.
It is often subjective, often unreliable, but the successful trader will combine a few methods that work for him or her MOST of the TIME.

In his CD-tutorial, Martin Pring defines The Art of Technical Analysis as :

" identifying trend changes at an early stage and riding the trend until the WEIGHT OF THE EVIDENCE points in the opposite direction."

THE WEIGHT OF THE EVIDENCE - that's the key.

One oscillator/pair of oscillators is only one piece of evidence.
Always look for as many co-inciding signals as possible.

 

[JonnyT]

Then the statement you made is flawed. The method you describe is infact not a method at all...

Glad we cleared that up.

JonnyT

 

[DaveT]

 

[bgold]

DaveT,
You mention in one of posts the following:

PS - I do not see SELL signals (as exactly prescribed by the method) in OCT, NOV or DEC. Remember all 3 conditions must occut AT THE SAME TIME , joined by the vertical line drwn.

Based on your experience, how closely in time should all 3 conditions occur?
In 24hr markets, one might miss very good trades if signals are followed orthodoxly, especially condition 1. Take for example the attached Cable chart.

Also, have you looked application of method at shorter term horizons, say hourly?

Thanks

 

[DaveT]

Bgold -

On daily charts , I normally look for all 3 conditions to occur within, say, 2 bars -

(For Condition1 - Either Slow Stochastic line (%K or %D) crossing the 80/20 point)

If there is more of a time lag between MACD rule and Slow stoch. rule, the two oscillators are 'out of synch' for the purposes of the method.

Whether a significant percantage of good trades is missed this way is not yet certain to me - but this 'out of synch' status could often occur in less volatile, less 'swinging' markets.

I have not studies this method on hourly, minute charts,etc - this is not relevant to my strategy, or style of trading.

To answer an earlier question, the method does not assume one must take either a LONG or SHORT position on producing a signal.
An intelligent way of using this might be to use a filter, based on the intermediate trend or trading range of the market in question.

ie, BULL TREND - LONG/take profits only
BEAR TREND - SHORT/cover only
VOLATILE RANGE - LONG or SHORT

 

[DaveT]

Bgold - Re BRITISH POUND -

The 'out of synch' status is seen mid-way on the chart as a FALSE BUY signal.

The later BUY signal is 'in line' and signals the eventual move up.

Agreed?

 

[bgold]

Thanks for replies.

Agreed on the mid-way "out-of-synch" signal which turns out to be False. But as you point out yourself it's an ART and one does perhaps need other filters. See fe the 1st vertical line, when method does give a signal to sell but also proves to be FALSE as market spikes up 3 candles later. Buying back the short at the next candle proves to be expensive.

The 4th line is another good example of being out-ofsynch as signal proves to be false. The 5th vert line is, I think, a good SELL signal but unfortunately the BUY back/revrse signal is not clear at all.

Anyway, as said it's not meant to be mechanical. I like it, appears to be helping my timing decisions.
Hope to do some more work over x-mas period.
rgds

 

[Hook Shot]

Time to look at cotton me thinks - like Natural Gas it's one of the few DOWN & OUT commodiities out there.

 

[Hook Shot]

Cotton nice slow pullback as we try to form higher bottom - getting interesting for those wishing to play the Long Wave. Nat Gas in similar condition.

H

 

[Hook Shot]

The Calm before the ..............

After 3m, I'm still asking "Will Cotton be the next commodity to fly ?"
Something is gonna happen as it's winding up nicely.......long term

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/ct.pdf

 

[andycan]

After 3m, I'm still asking "Will Cotton be the next commodity to fly ?"
Something is gonna happen as it's winding up nicely.......long term

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/ct.pdf

HS
watch out for cotton!!
the contractual month points to higher prices the continues points to lower

 

[BREND]

Cotton reversal move

The market is operating under the bullish influence of the reversal and outside day up from a one-year low on August 20th.

Outlook for significant battle for planted acreage and potential for tropical storm damage to supply this season are factors which helped to support the reversal.

Both Comm Channel and Parabolic have signal BUY for cotton

Bought 1 lot of cotton at 68.36
Stop level at 66.00
Target level at 77.00
Value of 1 point equals US$500

Chart: Commodities Trading Pro: Cotton reversal move

 

[BREND]

On 26 August, I had bought 1 lot of cotton Dec08 at 70.85, stop level at 66.00, target level at 77.00.

Currently cotton is trading at 70.18, so unrealised loss is US$335.

According to last week's CFTC data, net long positions from hedge funds had rose by 591 contracts or 14%.

We should see cotton price moving up higher over the next few weeks.

My trading system is still signal BUY for cotton.

 

[rvb]

186.740

bal 96.21

 

[rvb]

Getting a bit of vertigo yet? The price of agricultural futures is on the rise again today, continuing their meteoric rise. But as we told you over the weekend (subscribers can see Barron’s Commodities Corner column “Prices Reach The Danger Level” here), that shouldn’t be a surprise. Neither should a slowdown at some point as traders pause to catch their breadth.

But if you’re still in it, trading remains strong with high volumes reported Monday in the iPath Cotton ETN (BAL). The ETF’s price was ahead by 5.6% today and 150% in the past 12-months, says Morningstar. The National Cotton Council estimated today that U.S. stocks will fall to as low as 2.3 million bales, leaving the U.S. virtually sold out of cotton for the remainder of the current year. Also, Cotton Corp. of India said cotton sales have improved by 5.7% in the season and China demand is also up, causing more concern about inventory levels.

 

[trader_dante]

186.740

bal 96.21

?

 

[rvb]

BAL = cotton etn http://www.google.com/finance?q=bal