Cotton

bgold

Established member
Top and bottom pickers become cotton pickers!!

That said, I would argue that there are signs of a pending top. Perhaps it is a bit early to declare the spinning top of Monday as reversal, but i do see weakening daily RSI and CCI. In fact the reverse happened in build up for the recent explosive rally. Also notice volume (if my eSignal feed is correct), yesterdays' seems to have been higher than during Friday's bullish engulfing pattern.

This is one to keep an eye on. Confirmation might come soon.

As always, your observations are much appreciated.
 

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bgold

Established member
Andreas, Thank you for the link. Pitmaster.com provides interesting material on fe spreads. Very helpful.
Thanks

PS.Hope you received my e-mail? thanks
 

Andreas

Active member
I received your email, and sent you one back.
Pitmaster is a fine site,and I know a lot of the people that contribute to it like Scott Barrie and the guys from Gecko Software.

Best regards,
Andreas
 

bgold

Established member
Thanks for e-mail with Commodity.com info. Will investigate later today. many thanks J

PS. Cotton did indeed fly.
 

bgold

Established member
Cotton's spectacular rise was spectacularly reversed on 30 Oct and followed by gap down on 31 oct. While uptrend is not yet broken, Cotton momentum has clearly weakened. Currently dec CT is boumncing on 21 ema.
Time to short?
Sell at 77 risking 300pts for a gain of 600pts targetting resistance at 71?
Or long?
Buy at 77 risking 200pts at 75, targetting a new high at 85 for 800pts?

Anybody's guess?
 

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bgold

Established member
Looks good, welldone. S1 is at 71.85 and if breached S2 at 67.90
I would protect profits. congrats
 

PeterTT

Member
Hi,

Another good day chartwise for cotton shorts (excuse the pun!).
I have brought my stop down to late 70s for DEC.

Good Luck

Peter
 

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bgold

Established member
I agree. I am concentrating on the March Contract. Must see some more weakness before going short.

See comment below:
"December cotton closed lower on Monday as it consolidates
above the 40-day moving average crossing at 73.64. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If the decline continues, a test of gap support
crossing at 71.85 is possible later this month.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food"
 

bgold

Established member
Whow what a move. Sell stop triggered at 77.70
Short at 77.70, target 72'ish, stop at 77.50

(stop lowered from intended 79.05 as todays' low was 75.46) Will review overnight if today doesnot turn out to be a massive reversal and new start of uptrend.

PeterTT, your trade looks very healthy! congrats
 

bgold

Established member
Cotton Falls on Bush's Quotas Limiting China Textile Imports

By KIRA MCCAFFREY BRECHT
OsterDowJones Commodity News

NEW YORK -- Cotton futures fell sharply on the New York Cotton Exchange in the wake of news that the Bush administration had imposed temporary quotas on some Chinese textile imports by invoking "safeguard" trade sanctions.

That action led to fears that China might import less cotton with which to produce the textiles it exports to the U.S.

March futures dropped by their daily three-cent limit early in the session, though trade buying trimmed that loss to 2.27 cents, leaving the contract at 76.19 cents a pound.

Cotton observers had been anticipating such news from the White House, following requests from U.S. companies for trade relief under a provision of China's World Trade Organization accession agreement. Temporary quotas are allowed if imports are causing a "market disruption," the U.S. Commerce Department said. The administration's committee on textile policy voted Monday to invoke the safeguard measures on three textile products -- knit fabric, bras, and dressing gowns and robes.

While March cotton futures have dropped about 10 cents since Oct. 30, prices had been rallying strongly since mid-August, in large part fueled by strong Chinese demand for U.S. cotton. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has estimated that China would need to import a record seven million 480-pound bales this year.

"The whole lynchpin to the bullish scenario is that China maintains its record-high consumption, and anything that threatens that assumption sparks a market reaction like we saw \*today," said Sharon Johnson, cotton analyst at Frank Schneider & Co. in Atlanta.

Ron Lawson, senior vice president at Wachovia Securities, played down the overall importance of the news to the cotton market. "It's not why we were limit down. It might have been the trigger, but it wasn't the charge that sent prices lower," he said. "The merchant community feels that China will still have to buy raw cotton to be turned into these goods that we can't buy."

"The measure being implemented, on the surface, seems to restrict our consumption of Chinese goods. But, it compels us to go to the table to iron out our WTO disagreements," Mr. Lawson added.

Mr. Lawson and others said the "bulk of the panic selling" came from speculative accounts, once the March contract opened below Monday's session low. NYCE floor brokers said heavy rounds of preplaced sell orders were triggered between 75.60 and 76.00 cents, which accelerated the market's decline.
 

PeterTT

Member
Yep all going unusually well ! ... I have now put in a trailing stop to protect profits .. Yesterday I sold May04 Soybean with a stop at a new high (764).
 

josbarr

Active member
Bra Spat

By Rene Pastor

NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The "bra spat" between the
United States and China won't cause a sag in U.S. cotton sales
to the Asian giant, even if it does spur some snags in the
short run, analysts said.

On Tuesday, Washington slapped curbs on imports of bras,
robes and other knit-fabric clothing from China.

On Wednesday, China called off an impending U.S. trip by a
cotton buying delegation.

Quickly dubbed the "bra spat" by the industry, the
tit-for-tat trade tiff between the two countries should at most
cool, and temporarily at that, the pace of cotton purchases by
China's textile mills, according to industry analysts.

That's because the Chinese are still facing a woeful
shortage of fiber due to a disastrous crop. Equally important,
the only major source of cotton going into 2004 is the United
States, the analysts said.

"I don't think there's any country that has the quantity
and quality of cotton that we could provide," Carl Anderson, an
influential economist at Texas A&M University, told Reuters in
a phone interview.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its closely followed
monthly November supply/demand report, said China's cotton
production will reach 22 million (480-lb) bales, down sharply
from the 25.5 million bales forecast last month <WASDE25>.

Chinese consumption of cotton is expected to hit 30.20
million bales, with imports expected to hit 7.0 million bales,
the USDA said.

Because China is simultaneously the world's largest
producer and consumer of the fiber, cotton futures on the New
York Board of Trade shot to an 8-year high of 86 cents a lb at
the height of the Chinese buying frenzy last month.

Cotton futures for March delivery on the exchange were
fetching 76.15 cents a lb on Wednesday afternoon after falling
more than 2 cents on Tuesday on Washington's curbs.

The dispute with Washington prompted China to cancel, for
now, the visit of a delegation to buy U.S. cotton. This
happened against the backdrop of Chinese officials warning of
retaliation.

Shi Jianwei, director of China's Cotton and Jute Bureau,
said the dispute could "reduce some of China's purchases of
U.S. cotton in the short term."

However, Mark Lange, president of the National Cotton
Council, said his trade group was getting "confused messages
out of China" about the delegation's visit.

"It seems the cotton buyers will still be able to make
their trip," Lange said, adding the NCC planned clarify this
with officials in China, maybe by the end of the week.

U.S. ONLY MAJOR SOURCE OF COTTON FOR CHINA

Nonetheless, the bigger problem for China is that the list
of alternate sources of cotton in the world is slim or almost
nonexistent at the moment, the analysts said.

So far, the USDA said the Chinese have bought more than 2.5
million running bales (RBs), each weighing 500 lbs, of cotton
from the United States alone.

In contrast, China's cotton purchases from the U.S.
amounted to a bit over 300,000 RBs a year ago.

Trade sources said the Chinese have also bought about 2.0
million bales from West Africa. But that may have tapped out
exportable supplies from this region.

That means China's mills may have to buy another 1.0
million bales, if not more, from the United States.

And the list of competitors to U.S. cotton is shrinking.

USDA reduced its estimate of the crop in Pakistan to 7.9
million (480-lb) bales from last month's estimate of 8.35
million bales. And it halved its forecast of Pakistani exports
to 50,000 bales from October's estimate of 100,000 bales.

The U.S. farm agency estimated India's exports at 100,000
bales which would merely whet China's appetite for the fiber.

Meanwhile, Australia's crop got hit by drought and the
continent is expected to ship a lot less cotton as a result.

The crop in Uzbekistan, the world's second largest cotton
exporter, hit an all-time low of 2.86 million tonnes from 3.2
million tonnes in 2002, an official told Reuters in Tashkent.

Analysts said China's recent heavy buying should enable it
to refrain from doing any immediate buying. But this would
change by early 2004 when China's mills would need to book
orders after their stocks run down.

"You're not going to kill this because of a few diplomatic
flaps," Mike Stevens of Swiss Financial Services in Mandeville,
Louisiana, said in a separate interview.

Sharon Johnson, cotton expert for Frank Schneider and Co.
Inc. in Atlanta, Georgia, told Reuters that while the Chinese
could pick up small amounts of cotton from other sources, the
only large source of cotton remains the United States.

"You can go to all the mom-and-pop stores," Johnson said,
alluding to the other cotton-producing nations, "But it's much
easier to buy at Wal-Mart."

She said the United States is the world's biggest and most
reliable supplier of cotton.

And if China does cancel the cotton delegation's visit?

"I don't think it makes any difference at all," said one
cotton broker who deals extensively in the Asian cotton
business.

"All the big merchants already have their offices in China
or Hong Kong. The Chinese don't have to come here to do all the
deals they need to do. In a word, the delegation's trip is
really for show," the broker explained.
 

PeterTT

Member
I am out of my Dec Cotton short at todays close (67.60) as my spreadbet company use tonights close as the end for Dec and now my bet would have to be Mar 04. I might look to short the March04 as there really does not look like much support until the late 60's. However, I might just leave it as I really want to cut back my positions for the run upto Christmas.

Peter
 

neil

Legendary member
I have been looking at a few grains Future on Prophet.net (Daily prices). Seems that soya beans has burst into life after a couple of years. Corn may have better daily ranges?

What do you think are good intra day trades and daily (holding for more than a day) non financial Futures to trade ( TA friendly - like forex maybe) ?
 

PeterTT

Member
I am not really a day trader .. just look for nice explosive chart patterns that I think will run for 1 week to 4 weeks time frame. Cotton over last 2 weeks has been my sort of trade.

Peter
 
 
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