Cotton

bgold

Established member
532 5
Top and bottom pickers become cotton pickers!!

That said, I would argue that there are signs of a pending top. Perhaps it is a bit early to declare the spinning top of Monday as reversal, but i do see weakening daily RSI and CCI. In fact the reverse happened in build up for the recent explosive rally. Also notice volume (if my eSignal feed is correct), yesterdays' seems to have been higher than during Friday's bullish engulfing pattern.

This is one to keep an eye on. Confirmation might come soon.

As always, your observations are much appreciated.
 

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bgold

Established member
532 5
Andreas, Thank you for the link. Pitmaster.com provides interesting material on fe spreads. Very helpful.
Thanks

PS.Hope you received my e-mail? thanks
 

Andreas

Active member
109 0
I received your email, and sent you one back.
Pitmaster is a fine site,and I know a lot of the people that contribute to it like Scott Barrie and the guys from Gecko Software.

Best regards,
Andreas
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Sounds good.
I am afraid, though, I haven't received your e-mail.
thanks
J
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Thanks for e-mail with Commodity.com info. Will investigate later today. many thanks J

PS. Cotton did indeed fly.
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Cotton's spectacular rise was spectacularly reversed on 30 Oct and followed by gap down on 31 oct. While uptrend is not yet broken, Cotton momentum has clearly weakened. Currently dec CT is boumncing on 21 ema.
Time to short?
Sell at 77 risking 300pts for a gain of 600pts targetting resistance at 71?
Or long?
Buy at 77 risking 200pts at 75, targetting a new high at 85 for 800pts?

Anybody's guess?
 

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PeterTT

Member
87 1
Still falling

Another downeard dynamic from cotton today .. looking good for a fall to the late 60s ...
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Looks good, welldone. S1 is at 71.85 and if breached S2 at 67.90
I would protect profits. congrats
 

PeterTT

Member
87 1
Hi,

Another good day chartwise for cotton shorts (excuse the pun!).
I have brought my stop down to late 70s for DEC.

Good Luck

Peter
 

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bgold

Established member
532 5
I agree. I am concentrating on the March Contract. Must see some more weakness before going short.

See comment below:
"December cotton closed lower on Monday as it consolidates
above the 40-day moving average crossing at 73.64. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If the decline continues, a test of gap support
crossing at 71.85 is possible later this month.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food"
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Whow what a move. Sell stop triggered at 77.70
Short at 77.70, target 72'ish, stop at 77.50

(stop lowered from intended 79.05 as todays' low was 75.46) Will review overnight if today doesnot turn out to be a massive reversal and new start of uptrend.

PeterTT, your trade looks very healthy! congrats
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Cotton Falls on Bush's Quotas Limiting China Textile Imports

By KIRA MCCAFFREY BRECHT
OsterDowJones Commodity News

NEW YORK -- Cotton futures fell sharply on the New York Cotton Exchange in the wake of news that the Bush administration had imposed temporary quotas on some Chinese textile imports by invoking "safeguard" trade sanctions.

That action led to fears that China might import less cotton with which to produce the textiles it exports to the U.S.

March futures dropped by their daily three-cent limit early in the session, though trade buying trimmed that loss to 2.27 cents, leaving the contract at 76.19 cents a pound.

Cotton observers had been anticipating such news from the White House, following requests from U.S. companies for trade relief under a provision of China's World Trade Organization accession agreement. Temporary quotas are allowed if imports are causing a "market disruption," the U.S. Commerce Department said. The administration's committee on textile policy voted Monday to invoke the safeguard measures on three textile products -- knit fabric, bras, and dressing gowns and robes.

While March cotton futures have dropped about 10 cents since Oct. 30, prices had been rallying strongly since mid-August, in large part fueled by strong Chinese demand for U.S. cotton. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has estimated that China would need to import a record seven million 480-pound bales this year.

"The whole lynchpin to the bullish scenario is that China maintains its record-high consumption, and anything that threatens that assumption sparks a market reaction like we saw \*today," said Sharon Johnson, cotton analyst at Frank Schneider & Co. in Atlanta.

Ron Lawson, senior vice president at Wachovia Securities, played down the overall importance of the news to the cotton market. "It's not why we were limit down. It might have been the trigger, but it wasn't the charge that sent prices lower," he said. "The merchant community feels that China will still have to buy raw cotton to be turned into these goods that we can't buy."

"The measure being implemented, on the surface, seems to restrict our consumption of Chinese goods. But, it compels us to go to the table to iron out our WTO disagreements," Mr. Lawson added.

Mr. Lawson and others said the "bulk of the panic selling" came from speculative accounts, once the March contract opened below Monday's session low. NYCE floor brokers said heavy rounds of preplaced sell orders were triggered between 75.60 and 76.00 cents, which accelerated the market's decline.
 

PeterTT

Member
87 1
Yep all going unusually well ! ... I have now put in a trailing stop to protect profits .. Yesterday I sold May04 Soybean with a stop at a new high (764).
 
 
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