Breakouts

[Chad Seven]

Exciting news, this thread is going to make a comeback in the new year.

Same principal but:

• Better capitalised.
• I have made small adjustments to the stretch and stop calculations
• Taking money off the table at 0.6 x R for a "free trade"
• Trading stocks.
• Pattern to have formed over 100+ bars
• More fun times.

 

[Chad Seven]

Advantage of the switch to stocks is with an instrument universe of thousands I can choose to only trade the very best setups whereas before with more limited opportunities there was a temptation to take inferior setups.

Something I noticed in my earlier trading in this thread is that the best breakouts are from a narrow range. This has been confirmed with my research into the TTM Squeeze indicator (not usually a fan of indicators) which identifies situations where an instrument is going through a tight consolidation.

I shall have two trading sessions a day, the early session where I will enter orders for the European market open and a late session where I enter orders the USA open. Apart from that it will be "set and forget".

 

[Chad Seven]

Advantage of the switch to stocks is with an instrument universe of thousands I can choose to only trade the very best setups whereas before with more limited opportunities there was a temptation to take inferior setups.

Something I noticed in my earlier trading in this thread is that the best breakouts are from a narrow range. This has been confirmed with my research into the TTM Squeeze indicator (not usually a fan of indicators) which identifies situations where an instrument is going through a tight consolidation.

I shall have two trading sessions a day, the early session where I will enter orders for the European market open and a late session where I enter orders the USA open. Apart from that it will be "set and forget".

Example of the TTM Squeeze. The green squares on the indicator denote where the Keltner Band is within the Bollinger Band (or is it the other way around?), the more green squares the more squeezy we are.

Now I would have taken this trade even if I didn't know about the TTM Squeeze (and if my broker allowed me to trade this stock, which they don't, what's up with that IG?) but I think the TTM Squeeze serves as a good complement to my analysis.

 

[Chad Seven]

The theory behind the taking partial profit at 0.6R is that most of these setups do make at least a brief strong move in the predicted direction, so if I capture that early gain I cut out a lot of losers. There is trade-off in that the further gains are proportionately smaller in size in comparison to losses than if I leave the full position on.

My testing suggests it pays off, there are also psychological benefits.

 

[Chad Seven]

Exciting news, this thread is going to make a comeback in the new year.

Same principal but:

• Better capitalised.
• I have made small adjustments to the stretch and stop calculations
• Taking money off the table at 0.6 x R for a "free trade"
• Trading stocks.
• More fun times.

Ah yes, also a consolidation pattern pattern must have formed over a minimum of 100 bars to be a valid setup.

Few and far between in my old list of instruments but plentiful when trading stock market.

On the subject of my old instrument list... WTF was I doing trading Bitcoin Cash and Ripple? Not trading them would have had me up at least +3,000.

Exciting times guys. I'm feeling very positive about this.

 

[Chad Seven]

On a philosophical note often wonder what is behind this tendency of the market to go from periods of consolidation to expansion. Even if I were not able to take advantage of such a phenomena (note: I can and will) it is a real phenomena.

 

[Chad Seven]

On the matter of psychology this is an absolute must read/listen.

I don't know if positive thinking manifests in particular outcomes coming to fruition, but what I can say with absolute certainly is that identifying and dealing with negative thoughts has made a huge difference in my life. If you let yourself get bogged down by negative thoughts they consume you. If you control your negative thoughts you free up your mental energy, you have the capacity to look for solutions, to be proactive rather than a victim of circumstance. It sounds like small thing but I strongly suspect it is a big thing, maybe the biggest thing.

 

[Chad Seven]

 

[Chad Seven]

Not trading this week and if I were I would not be taking this Nike setup.

Nice ascending wedge but earlier spike rejected at a long term resistance level (circled) making this a low probability scenario.

 

[Chad Seven]

Not trading this week and if I were I would not be taking this Nike setup.

Nice ascending wedge but earlier spike rejected at a long term resistance level (circled) making this a low probability scenario.

View attachment 324422

White bars far more easier on the eye than those horrific red and green candles I used to use.

 

[Chad Seven]

Looking back through this thread I was trading some really trash setups and still managed to come away with ~£9k over five months.