Breakouts

Chad Seven

Chad Seven

Well-known member
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My new approach is a breakout strategy using the height of the pattern to calculate entry, stop and target.

Markets:
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, FTSE100, DOW, S&P, CAC, DAX, Brent, WTI, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin Cash and perhaps some others.

Approach:
  1. Identify ascending/descending triangle on M5/M15/M30/H1 TF
  2. Set entry at height of triangle x X% above resistance for longs and below support for shorts
  3. Set stop at height of triangle x Y% below resistance for longs and above support for shorts
  4. Set target roughly based size of triangle above resistance or at the next problem area before
  5. Override rule #4 so that target is placed before any major resistance levels
See you Monday.
 
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Pending order.

1583770831152.png
 
I've been wishing this approach would work but this is getting a bit gruelling.

I had not heard of Joel Rensink's First Strike strategy but it seems a bit of a stretch to take a snapshot of price action on one day and then let that alone dictate the trade over the week.

Are you sure this is going to work?
 
tomorton said:
I've been wishing this approach would work but this is getting a bit gruelling.

I had not heard of Joel Rensink's First Strike strategy but it seems a bit of a stretch to take a snapshot of price action on one day and then let that alone dictate the trade over the week.

Are you sure this is going to work?
Click to expand...

No I am not sure it will work, if I was I probably would not be writing this journal. I am however surprised to have taken three losses in quick succession. Then again as you said previously these are tough markets to trade.

I don't think of the price action as dictating the trade over the week, I think of it as looking for a low risk entry to get in on a weekly trend, if one occurs.

I hope that helps. I don't mean to be rude when I say this journal is intended as a record of my trades and I would rather it does not become cluttered with discussions on the merits of my approach.
 
OK, yes I see what you're meaning to do. Maybe its just the exceptional volatility during the coronavirus event... in which case a simple filter rule might dampen down the trading until markets resume more average levels of volatility.
 
tomorton said:
OK, yes I see what you're meaning to do. Maybe its just the exceptional volatility during the coronavirus event... in which case a simple filter rule might dampen down the trading until markets resume more average levels of volatility.
Click to expand...

I shall give this some thought, cheers Tomorton!
 
In the light of Tomorton sharing his frustration regarding the tediousness of this journal I will no longer post my new orders and adjustments of orders. I am regularly changing orders as patterns are invalidated and to make the most of my available margin. The reason I posted them up is because I am not screen watching and usually not at my desk to make a post when an order is filled and posting them after the fact violates the code of conduct around "live calls". However having thought about it I don' really care.

Long USD/CHF.

1584023007139.png
 
2020 Week #11 Review (Balance: 22,189.76 , P/L: -£811.99 / -3.5%)
Summary
  • First USD/CHF trade was straight into a gap where price reversed and hit stop. It did not occur to me the gap would provide this much resistance and will add rule not to take trade into a gap (see chart).
  • Second USD/CHF trade was psychologically very difficult having come off three consecutive losses and for the price to then shoot up, reverse, consolidate and then rise again. Posted H1 chart as it's clearer but you really need to look at M5 to get an idea of the rollercoaster ride I was on (see chart).
  • If I had stuck to my plan and held above trade another hour until 19:00 it would have yielded an extra £100 in profit.
  • The silver and USD/AUD losses are not particularly interesting except that silver is behaving exactly the opposite from what I expect with the market turmoil.
  • Updated approach to also check M15, M30 and H1 TFs for breakouts.
  • Changing thread name to “Intraday breakouts with timed exits” because that is what this strategy is.
  • Once I have enough data I shall start loading trades to a SQL DB and generating my own analytics rather than using the IG ones.
  • Overall not great performance of course but perhaps not too bad given the exceptional market volatility and lessons learned.
  • Is there any way to increase the number of posts visible per page?
Trades
1584163008455.png


Analytics
1584162932279.png


Charts
1584163072591.png

1584163095561.png
 
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