Breakouts

Chad Seven

Well-known member
Should have taken more than £2,000

View attachment 283663

Have been thinking about this Soyabean trade. The initial target I set was where the price is in this screenshot and the resulting profit would have warranted a picture of Leonardo DiCaprio throwing money off a yacht.

So what happened? The price was struggling to break 889, as I predicted it would and trade was already BE, then I panicked, and to make this worse I decided to close as the price started to rise, shortly before smashing through the level.

I didn't follow my plan, there is nothing in my plan that says set your target and if you feel like the target isn't going to be hit close the trade.
 

Chad Seven

Well-known member
I notice that my spreadbet provider has various option expiry dates for all the major forex pairs except USD/CHF for which it only offers expiry for same day. I wonder why that is,
 
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Chad Seven

Well-known member
Long Dow

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Chad Seven

Well-known member
I performed some analysis on whether trades filled after USA close have a lower probability of success and this does not to appear to the be the case. When I have more data I shall repeat this exercise on individual markets.
 

Chad Seven

Well-known member
I am looking at RSI and how using it as a filter would have impacted my past results. Not usually a fan of indicators.
 

mpups

Experienced member
Nice thread thanks, I kinda skimmed through it today. It seems you are up on your initial capital but I'm not sure. I was liking the weekly review but you stopped doing it.
 

Chad Seven

Well-known member
Thanks for the comment. I moved to monthly reviews :).

I am up just over £12,000 since March. That represents an return of ~50%. Admittedly I am trading too a big a position size so how sustainable that is remains to be seen.

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Chad Seven

Well-known member
Interesting to note that the circled period of drawdown is the infamous Gasoline stop widening incident which seems to have been a game changer as I have been profitable since.

1595187732706.png
 

Chad Seven

Well-known member
I was looking at the chart for the big GBP/USD win from earlier in the month and I noticed something quite horrifying. The support/resistance level marked in blue would have made this a non-trade if I had noticed it, this would have made the month thus far a loss rather than £2,200 in profit.

The key to this approach is knowing which trades not to take. I thought I was doing well on that front (of the eight trades I have forgone this month six would have been losers and two breakeven) but then to realise my biggest winner should not have been a trade throws things into doubt.

The price had even reacted to the level almost stopping me out which I commented on at the time.

I am going to take some time out to rethink, I don't feel comfortable placing any more trades for now.

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Chad Seven

Well-known member
I am thinking in the event of spikes/false breakouts such as the gold trade the prudent course of action is to override my calculated "stretch" to a safe distance beyond the spike.

There will be a trade-off with widening the distance between entry and stop which will impact R:R on these trades.
 
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Chad Seven

Well-known member
I am thinking in the event of spikes/false breakouts such the gold trade the prudent course of action is to override my calculated "stretch" to a safe distance beyond the spike.

There will be a trade-off with widening the distance between entry and stop which will impact R:R on these trades.

I suppose the same principle would apply to levels at and around my entry point, just extend the stretch beyond the level. Slightly different situation in the that levels behave more like zones than actual levels meaning the stretch may need extending significantly to find a safe distance to place entry.

Edit: That being said I have seen the price react to levels with remarkable accuracy.
 
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Chad Seven

Well-known member
"People in their handlings of affairs often fail when they are about to succeed. If one remains as careful at the end as he was at the beginning, there will be no failure."
 
 
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