BP...should i go long..??

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,498
BP........ should I go long.. ??

Very simple.
Do you want to receive about 7% in divs?
Yes please.
Is there div under threat?
I dont think so.
Could you do worse?
Absolutely.
Worth a small punt now to get the ball rolling?
Yeah.
Worst case scenario?
You double your holding at 3 quid something.
Best case scenario?
You find out in 3 months time that Warren was slowly sucking up stock under 5 quid.
BPs dividend is very much under threat right now - as are some of their prime assets.
 

D70

Established member
839 195
BPs dividend is very much under threat right now - as are some of their prime assets.
If you want to go short BP, I'll happily take the other side.
Let me know how much you want to do and we can cut the spread / cost of the trade.
OK?
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,498
Personally, I wouldn't risk a long term position on BP at this time as it's too risky either way. I have taken advantage of the volatility this week and day traded it. It's been on my daily list every day since the leak.

On the dividends. It does not make any sense for BP to continue paying dividends. This crisis is sucking cash from the company and we have no idea of how it will end for BP. It could be the start of the end for them. There is talk of them having to sell off assets to cover the cash flow, so to keep paying the dividend at this time is unlikely in my opinion.
 
B

Black Swan

0 0
This thread and the very informed polar advice offered up by two respected posters illustrates (to me) why I could never hack it trading stock...
 

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
warren buffet made his fortune off buying when everyone was running, this is a prime buying opportunity. nobody can pick a top or bottom. but you can get in at good value and hold it out for a year or 2 to make back a good sized profit... i have seen this strategy first hand with a friend buying into uk banks when people were queuing outside to get their money. everyone thought he was crazy including me. he was down for at least 5 months and then it shot up and he is now sitting on 30k profit..
 

D70

Established member
839 195
They are discussing it on CNBC right now if you want to hear the s experts.
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,498
One thing I'm not clear on is how well insured they are in all of this.

There's loss of revenue, cleanup cost plus compensation and legal costs. There's also the potential for criminal negligence cases.

I understand they are insured to an extent but not sure how well they are covered in relation to their total costs...
 

Luminox

Junior member
44 2
warren buffet made his fortune off buying when everyone was running, this is a prime buying opportunity. nobody can pick a top or bottom. but you can get in at good value and hold it out for a year or 2 to make back a good sized profit... i have seen this strategy first hand with a friend buying into uk banks when people were queuing outside to get their money. everyone thought he was crazy including me. he was down for at least 5 months and then it shot up and he is now sitting on 30k profit..
The comparison of ‘cheap’ banking stocks against those of BP for purposes of speculation is incompatible IMO. BP has the responsibility of settling both a financial and environmental disaster; there’s actually nothing much wrong with their business model (save for the obvious…), nor their balance sheet (again, save for the obvious). BP would need to have been drilling for 5-10 years, having seen nothing, and selling future contracts of that nothing to fund the further extraction of nothing, only to find water to be in a similar position as the banks found themselves in.
 
B

Black Swan

0 0
warren buffet made his fortune off buying when everyone was running, this is a prime buying opportunity. nobody can pick a top or bottom. but you can get in at good value and hold it out for a year or 2 to make back a good sized profit... i have seen this strategy first hand with a friend buying into uk banks when people were queuing outside to get their money. everyone thought he was crazy including me. he was down for at least 5 months and then it shot up and he is now sitting on 30k profit..
I wish folk would stop quoting Buffet, the markets (and those who really drive them) need their cheer leaders and icons. Yes he bought up GS when it was on its knees, but why, how, who tipped him the wink, who *allowed* him to do it and what was their motivation? You think he looked at the fundas and thought it was a sound business? More like he knew it was going to be sorted over and above Lehman etc..

Wouldn't surpise me if he was actually *in* nothing, and all his assets were really in gold and swissys, his genius lies in the fact that he's got that big that he can take the pi55 (which he does on a regular basis) with other peoples' money.. He moves markets 'cos in tandem with the elite silly retail punters hold onto his every word, brilliant work that only one or two are allowed to do..

He is the Wizard of Oz, there'll be a day when the curtain is pulled back...and let's be honest, if we were all 100 and had kept mostly everything we'd ever invested in for 80 years we'd be doing OK...no guarantee that it's a winning strat. moving forward.. what if what Buffet recognises as capitalism is dismembered?
 

D70

Established member
839 195
Personally, I wouldn't risk a long term position on BP at this time as it's too risky either way. I have taken advantage of the volatility this week and day traded it. It's been on my daily list every day since the leak.

On the dividends. It does not make any sense for BP to continue paying dividends. This crisis is sucking cash from the company and we have no idea of how it will end for BP. It could be the start of the end for them. There is talk of them having to sell off assets to cover the cash flow, so to keep paying the dividend at this time is unlikely in my opinion.
Trading the BP ADR I assume?
 

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