Dentalfloss
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any thoughts on the fundamentals would be appreciated
thanks
the chart has not bottomed out as yet..imho
thanks
the chart has not bottomed out as yet..imho
BP...should i go long..??
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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for my sipp..
so possibly 3-6 months.
so if it recovers,then next major res level
so possibly 3-6 months.
so if it recovers,then next major res level
B
Black Swan
IMHO no, not yet. I'm still long/medium term bearish re equities, and this is despite having considerable (investment) skin in the game. How retail, financial, mining, and airline stock have done so well over the past 18 months owes nothing to fundamentals but more to TARP style rescues, Q.E. and the pitiful feel good factor put about by either a very manipulative or naive mainstream media. It was inevitable, given the spike in money supply/rescues, in the background of a zirp environment, that the equities market would be one of the last refuges..
I don't do the "buy gold, bury it, stock up with tinned food and buy a farm in NZ or Swiss" end of days scenario but IMHO we (as a global circus) are a long, long way from recovery without a huge re-evalution and redistribution of wealth and wealth creating intelligence...Let's not forget that only due to visible and invisible means of support by central governments oil is manipulated to stay below $100 a barrel, IMO a fair market price could be $200 a barrel, if/when that's breached (possibly inside the next 10 years) then forget equity share certificates, you'll be fighting over them to wipe your ar5e clean...
I don't do the "buy gold, bury it, stock up with tinned food and buy a farm in NZ or Swiss" end of days scenario but IMHO we (as a global circus) are a long, long way from recovery without a huge re-evalution and redistribution of wealth and wealth creating intelligence...Let's not forget that only due to visible and invisible means of support by central governments oil is manipulated to stay below $100 a barrel, IMO a fair market price could be $200 a barrel, if/when that's breached (possibly inside the next 10 years) then forget equity share certificates, you'll be fighting over them to wipe your ar5e clean...
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montmorencyt2w
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You forgot the ammo Black Swan; don't forget the ammo. In the minds of certain of our brethren, lead is second only to gold in ultimate value, and maybe not even second.
Cost of clean-up operation $1 bn so far. Once the leak is stopped BP will face compensation claims and maybe fines from US gov.
According to some analysts BP is undervalued compared to other big oil companies, unless the final cost of the liability reaches £40 bn
BP........ should I go long.. ??
Very simple.
Do you want to receive about 7% in divs?
Yes please.
Is there div under threat?
I dont think so.
Could you do worse?
Absolutely.
Worth a small punt now to get the ball rolling?
Yeah.
Worst case scenario?
You double your holding at 3 quid something.
Best case scenario?
You find out in 3 months time that Warren was slowly sucking up stock under 5 quid.
Very simple.
Do you want to receive about 7% in divs?
Yes please.
Is there div under threat?
I dont think so.
Could you do worse?
Absolutely.
Worth a small punt now to get the ball rolling?
Yeah.
Worst case scenario?
You double your holding at 3 quid something.
Best case scenario?
You find out in 3 months time that Warren was slowly sucking up stock under 5 quid.
meanreversion
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It's becoming more vulnerable to a takeover, eg by Shell. That would certainly pep the price up. I don't trade equities but if I did, I'd buy a few BP here, if nothing else than for the divvy.
meanreversion
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Bet Lord Browne was glad he got out when he did (previous CEO of BP, not Gordon)
Citizen2007
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I think BP will breach the previous ten year lows before any rally to the upside again. Yes there will be small rises but it is showing some real weakness.
Any positions will depend on ones trading style, but for investors, now is not the time.
Any positions will depend on ones trading style, but for investors, now is not the time.
meanreversion
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Yeah, need about 5 years of dividend to breakeven on that recent move in the underlying. I hope for the UK's sake they pull through this. I hope for the US' sake the leak is stopped soon.
Dentalfloss
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can bp cut the dividend.??.they will have to pay compensation.cutting the div is the easy option..imho
does that sound right..??
does that sound right..??
B
Black Swan
Lots of discussion re this on the web, Hayward has come out and categorically stated that the divi will be paid. IMHO we have (as a global village) reached peak on the mining sector/oil and a few others I could mention, peak in as much as the cost of extraction will perhaps not equal the previous returns. Mining has enjoyed a bubble since 2008 which has been absurd quite frankly. Look how this oil/tar/sand boom in Canada is struggling to really materialise...
Whether oil *lasts* another 50 years or 100 it's still finite and given the world's economy is underpinned by it, which is why continual administrations of the USofA crusade in order to grab it all so they can shape the world destiny as they see fit, as a consequence its extraction will become more politically complicated year on year.
I see all this stock as incredibly risky. Returns could be off the scale but one thing's for sure, the cosy 'clever' sleeping retail investments in for example Shell, BP and the mining sector could be a thing of the past..
Watch how BP now explodes past 1000p after Obama has a luv in with Hayward as they don overalls and clean up the beaches whilst signing off a 100 year lease to rape the seas of everything, meanwhile Cheyne and Haliburton reps do the security on the beach and snigger that they got off scot free once again with BP taking all the blame...
DionysusToast
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If you want to go short BP, I'll happily take the other side.
Let me know how much you want to do and we can cut the spread / cost of the trade.
OK?
DionysusToast
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Personally, I wouldn't risk a long term position on BP at this time as it's too risky either way. I have taken advantage of the volatility this week and day traded it. It's been on my daily list every day since the leak.
On the dividends. It does not make any sense for BP to continue paying dividends. This crisis is sucking cash from the company and we have no idea of how it will end for BP. It could be the start of the end for them. There is talk of them having to sell off assets to cover the cash flow, so to keep paying the dividend at this time is unlikely in my opinion.
On the dividends. It does not make any sense for BP to continue paying dividends. This crisis is sucking cash from the company and we have no idea of how it will end for BP. It could be the start of the end for them. There is talk of them having to sell off assets to cover the cash flow, so to keep paying the dividend at this time is unlikely in my opinion.
B
Black Swan
This thread and the very informed polar advice offered up by two respected posters illustrates (to me) why I could never hack it trading stock...
warren buffet made his fortune off buying when everyone was running, this is a prime buying opportunity. nobody can pick a top or bottom. but you can get in at good value and hold it out for a year or 2 to make back a good sized profit... i have seen this strategy first hand with a friend buying into uk banks when people were queuing outside to get their money. everyone thought he was crazy including me. he was down for at least 5 months and then it shot up and he is now sitting on 30k profit..