Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

momo3HC

Active member
167 51
BTC 03102020.jpg

Hi all. I`ll be very short but specific this week.
Strange week for Bitcoin and crypto sphere at all. Right? Price swing, Bitmex scandal, Trump with Covid and etc. But you know what? I don`t care about all that. All I can see is a bright Bitcoin future cuz of one simple chart. Do you remember my 3 month quarterly BTC chart from the end of August? If you don`t you can check it at the left side of the chart below. Like you`ll see from the chart, every time when we close a 3 month candle above the descending trend line from the last ATH, the run for the next ATH is starting.
Now look at the right side of the chart below and what are you seeing…? Yep, it`s true, a 3 month candle already closed above the descending trend line from the last ATH. So maybe we`ve already started the next ATH run. Only the time will show am I right or not.
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 
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sebking1986

Junior member
46 18
Be nice to see a decent impulse to the upside followed by some decent support to break out this little rut it is in at the moment
 

pezza55

Junior member
33 7
View attachment 288673
Hi all. I`ll be very short but specific this week.
Strange week for Bitcoin and crypto sphere at all. Right? Price swing, Bitmex scandal, Trump with Covid and etc. But you know what? I don`t care about all that. All I can see is a bright Bitcoin future cuz of one simple chart. Do you remember my 3 month quarterly BTC chart from the end of August? If you don`t you can check it at the left side of the chart below. Like you`ll see from the chart, every time when we close a 3 month candle above the descending trend line from the last ATH, the run for the next ATH is starting.
Now look at the right side of the chart below and what are you seeing…? Yep, it`s true, a 3 month candle already closed above the descending trend line from the last ATH. So maybe we`ve already started the next ATH run. Only the time will show am I right or not.
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
Definatly hoping and looking for the rise and break up from here been holing at the level for a very long time now which is a good sign of support i am hoping.
 

momo3HC

Active member
167 51
BTC 01112020_1.jpg

BTC 01112020_2.jpg

Hi all.
Almost a month no see but here i`m back and what a month it was for Bitcoin. In short i`m more and more bullish but let`s get back to charts.
Chart 1:
I`m turning back to my analysis from the end of September. It was about an interesting pattern on a weekly time frame which happened before the second and third ATH. It`s a descending triangle, some sideway move, then an ascending triangle and then next ATH. At the time of those analysis this ascending triangle wasn`t broken up yet but now… yes, the price breaks out above it and that`s the start of the next ATH run for me. And if this doesn`t convince you let`s see the chart 2.
Chart 2:
A monthly chart which complements the previous chart. 3 ATHs again. 3 triangles again. A break out again already. What`s missing again? Yep, the next ATH.
Simply enough? I think yes.
Also I want you to remember one. The path to the next ATH won`t be parabolic. There will be peaks and bottoms so don`t get panic. At this point the major levels are:
Resistance around $13800-$14000.
Support around $13000. Even a drop to $11500-$12000 won`t hurt the bull run and the ascending bull channel (on a daily chart).

That`s all for now. I`ve already prepared something interesting for the next time but i`ll share it in a couple of days.
See ya.
 

sebking1986

Junior member
46 18
Just when it looks to be falling hard it finds support. Seems at the moment to be stuck around the $13.5k mark and is so far beautifully respecting the 50EMA on the 4h chart.
 

momo3HC

Active member
167 51
BTC 05112020.jpg

Hi all.
Remember what I’ve promised you last time?
The chart today is only one. The time frame of it is strange even for me but it`s really interesting. It`s a yearly time frame chart. Yes, I know it`s big but Bitcoin is a really long term game so let`s see it.
In this chart every candle is one year. The chart shows the price from 2013 till now. We can clearly see two similar patterns. The first one is from 2013 till 2016 and the second one is from 2017 till 2020. This two patterns are with the same structure and only the sizes are different.
* The first one is a big green candle which is the ATH at that moment.
* The second one is a red candle which is the macro correction.
* The third one is again a green one which is some recovery.
* The fourth one is the most interesting. This candle fully recovers the second one and also break out the resistance at that moment and… yes it leads to the next big green ATH candle.
Guess what`s missing nowadays? Did you get it? The fourth one. That`s why this year close is looking to be important. Right now we`re exactly at the line. We have almost 2 months and the momentum looks good at this moment so it`s very possible to see 100% repeat. The most important is to break out from this resistance level. How far is not so important but there`s two scenarios for me.
The left one is the realistic one (lowest history results and future projections)– closing this year at around $17K and next year an ATH at $100K.
The right one is the mooning one (average to high history results and future projections)– closing this year at around $24,8K and next year an ATH at $640K. Personally I’m not a fan of the moon one simply cuz if we close this year at $24,8K this will be an ATH by itself. There`s no sense of this and it`s ruing the model at some point.
Interesting right? I think yes so the only thing that I can say is: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, fellas!
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 

pezza55

Junior member
33 7
View attachment 290642
Hi all.
Remember what I’ve promised you last time?
The chart today is only one. The time frame of it is strange even for me but it`s really interesting. It`s a yearly time frame chart. Yes, I know it`s big but Bitcoin is a really long term game so let`s see it.
In this chart every candle is one year. The chart shows the price from 2013 till now. We can clearly see two similar patterns. The first one is from 2013 till 2016 and the second one is from 2017 till 2020. This two patterns are with the same structure and only the sizes are different.
* The first one is a big green candle which is the ATH at that moment.
* The second one is a red candle which is the macro correction.
* The third one is again a green one which is some recovery.
* The fourth one is the most interesting. This candle fully recovers the second one and also break out the resistance at that moment and… yes it leads to the next big green ATH candle.
Guess what`s missing nowadays? Did you get it? The fourth one. That`s why this year close is looking to be important. Right now we`re exactly at the line. We have almost 2 months and the momentum looks good at this moment so it`s very possible to see 100% repeat. The most important is to break out from this resistance level. How far is not so important but there`s two scenarios for me.
The left one is the realistic one (lowest history results and future projections)– closing this year at around $17K and next year an ATH at $100K.
The right one is the mooning one (average to high history results and future projections)– closing this year at around $24,8K and next year an ATH at $640K. Personally I’m not a fan of the moon one simply cuz if we close this year at $24,8K this will be an ATH by itself. There`s no sense of this and it`s ruing the model at some point.
Interesting right? I think yes so the only thing that I can say is: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, fellas!
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
Incredible when you look at the possibility’s you can see that it is still not to late to get in on the bitcoin world and make some amazing gains
 
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momo3HC

Active member
167 51
BTC 11092021.jpg

Hi all.
Kind of a hard week and hard times at all and here i`m am again. Is all about Bitcoin lost or it`s just a healthy correction? Guess what… nothing is lost yet, not at all. Be sure that when something in the Bitcoin`s life change in negative direction i`ll admit it but that time isn`t come yet.
In the next 3 posts i`ll show you how nothing has changed in Bitcoin`s technicals (up to this date) after this week`s dip. This 3 charts will be daily, weekly and monthly.
I`m starting with the lowest and may be the less interesting chart – daily. In this chart we`ll see a couple of indicators – 50 MA, 200 MA, EMA Ribbon and the fibo levels. The price is still above the 50 MA and a bit lower from the 200 MA – not a 100% bullish but bullish after all. The more interesting is the interaction between both MA`s. As you`ll see from the chart we`re very close to so called Golden cross – very bullish. What about EMA ribbon? The price is not above it but it`s also not below it. The ribbon itself is not in a flipping position too. These 2 facts are also more bullish than bearish. Fibo levels you can use as support and resistance levels. If we fall way lower, I believe at least the golden pocket (from $38400 and $37600) will react as a strong support and we`ll bounce from there and this will be around $10000 higher than the previous low – positive for the actual bull run.
That`s it for now. Like I said above, this is not so interesting but the next (weekly) chart will be way more interesting and bullish.
See ya and remember… DCA (dollar cost average) all the way. It`s a marathon not a sprint.
 

momo3HC

Active member
167 51
BTC 18092021.jpg

Hi again all.

Like I told you last time, in 3 consecutive posts i`ll show you why nothing has changed in Bitcoin`s technicals (up to this date) and the bull run is not over yet at all. This time will be the weekly time frame so let`s go straight to the point.
First of all, there`s a lot of indicators in this charts. I don`t like to over use so much indicators but for the use of this post I must. In the left chart we`re seeing:
  • Blue dots – parabolic stop and reverse (PSAR). Very reliable indicator which is still showing bullish signals despite the last week big dip.
  • Yellow to red lines – EMA ribbons. And again, the price is still above it, bouncing from their top, and the ribbons aren`t flipping, despite the last week big dip. Bullish.
  • Green channel - Gaussian channel. Almost the same as the EMA ribbons and even better price action. The price is continuously above the channel, bouncing from it`s top, which is what…? Bullish.
  • The green/red line below the chart - Network Value to Transaction (NVT) and Historical Volatility (HV) combined indicator (NVT&HV). As long as we`re near to 40, there will be big volatility soon. Last week`s dip spiked HV to almost 56, but looks like it`s going back down. The color of the like is showing the potential way of the break. Green is bullish, red is bearish. What color it`s showing now? Green – Bullish.
In the right part of the charts we`re seeing:
  • A beautiful long-term upward channel. Like you`ll see every touch of the top of the channel is the cycle top. We`re we now? In the middle of the channel and the scenario can be exactly like 2013 and 2017 – a touch of the middle line, pull back and then a shot to the next ATH and the top of this channel. A conclusion from all this – bullish.
  • Below the long-term upward channel – Puell Multiple. Very simple – spikes are the tops but they must be over 5. Where it was at $64k price level – around 3,50. Where are we now – 1,24. A plus are the green and red vertical lines. What is the last line – green. Are there any red lines soon – no. A conclusion from all this – bullish.
That`s it for now. Like I said last time, the weekly chart is way more interesting and bullish than may be all the other ones. Next time – a monthly chart.
See ya and remember… DCA (dollar cost average) all the way. It`s a marathon not a sprint.
 
 
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