Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

sebking1986

Active member
206 69
Literally bounced off the resistance to the pip. Still holding nicely so be good to see another run at it this week.
 

pezza55

Member
56 16
such big swooping movements across BTC at the moment. even with 7% and 3% gains and loss it is moving 1500 points which is to big for me to be trading wish you all the best
 

AdamCantor

Active member
127 11
View attachment 286364
View attachment 286365
Hi all.
Well, Bitcoin dropped 3% from the last week and around 7% from it`s high at the beginning of this one. Is it so bad? I don`t think so! Why? I`ll show you below so don`t freak out but zoom out.

Last week daily chart VS this week possible re-charting (chart1)
Last week I was talking about an ascending triangle and 2 (or even 3) possible scenarios. At the beginning of this week all seems like scenario A is in play until the decline that came from nowhere. My personal opinion is that both the peak to $12500 and the drop to $11400 are just a fake moves if we`re looking at this ascending triangle chart. That`s why i`ve tried to ignore it and search for another pattern and almost immediately I saw the ascending channel (trend). A perfect one. Which pattern from this 2 you`ll use is your decision but at this moment i`m 70:30 to the ascending channel (trend).

Weekly chart (chart 2)
Here are 2 things to say. The 1st one is that this chart was initially made at 28.06.2020. Look at the green arrows which are pointing the possible price move. Even I was surprised how accurate are they till now. The most important thing here is the newly added fibo retracement from the last summer 14K top to the corona drop to 3.8K this year. What can we see? A beautiful fibo golden pocket between 10K and 10.5K. This 10.5K sounds familiar right? So what`s the conclusion here? That`s even if we fall far below this ascending triangle or if we fall below this ascending channel, then we have a REALLY STRONG support at 10.5K and even a bit below this (around 10K).

Actual PA situation:
  • Support and resistance:
  • Support:
  • 1st support - $10500 – last MAJOR resistance.
  • 2nd support - $9000
  • Resistance:
  • 1st resistance - $12100-12500 – almost the last bigger resistance before the clear skies, accordingly to VPVR. You saw where we stopped this week – exactly at $12500.
  • 2nd resistance - $14000 – the last resistance before the 20K test I can say (the last top + VPVR). Somewhere between 1st and 2nd resistance is $10K, which can act as a support too cuz of the psychological level.
  • 10 EMA – the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
  • 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
  • Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
  • Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 17 weeks bullish signaling (despite this week`s red candle for now).
  • Weekly pivot point is $11708,01.
That`s all for now and like i`ve said it before – these corrections are healthier than you think.
See ya next time.
hope you have a good week bro. good luck
 

momo3HC

Active member
202 61
BTC 29082020_1.jpg

BTC 29082020_2.jpg

Hi all.
Well, another not so good week for Bitcoin for now but let`s see the bigger picture (in chart 2).

Ascending channel/trend broken (chart1)
Last week I was talking about an ascending channel/trend but at Wednesday it was broken down and now seems like it`s down line is acting like a resistance for the price. Let`s see how it will continue forward.

3 months chart (chart 2)
Now that`s may be the more important chart. Like you`ll see from the chart, every time when we close a 3 month candle above the descending trend line from the last ATH, the run for the next ATH is starting. Well we`re 32 days away from the close of the actual candle so we can only cross fingers to close it above. Don`t know about you but i`ll keep an eye on this chart for sure.

Actual PA situation:
  • Support and resistance:
  • Support:
  • 1st support - $10500 – last MAJOR resistance.
  • 2nd support - $9000 – also very important due to 3 month chart.
  • Resistance:
  • 1st resistance - $12100-12500 – almost the last bigger resistance before the clear skies, accordingly to VPVR. You saw where we stopped this week – exactly at $12500.
  • 2nd resistance - $14000 – the last resistance before the 20K test I can say (the last top + VPVR). Somewhere between 1st and 2nd resistance is $10K, which can act as a support too cuz of the psychological level.
  • 10 EMA – the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
  • 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
  • Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
  • Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 18 weeks bullish signaling (despite this week`s red candle for now).
  • Weekly pivot point is $11828,22.
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 
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TickCOM

Active member
127 20
Another angle and information, this 1H bars crypto basket is in bullish territory, and the VIX chart bars rising meaning a price move is coming up.

VIX-30-8-2020.jpg
 

Attachments

  • basket-20-9-20.jpg
    basket-20-9-20.jpg
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pezza55

Member
56 16
View attachment 286913
View attachment 286914
Hi all.
Well, another not so good week for Bitcoin for now but let`s see the bigger picture (in chart 2).

Ascending channel/trend broken (chart1)
Last week I was talking about an ascending channel/trend but at Wednesday it was broken down and now seems like it`s down line is acting like a resistance for the price. Let`s see how it will continue forward.

3 months chart (chart 2)
Now that`s may be the more important chart. Like you`ll see from the chart, every time when we close a 3 month candle above the descending trend line from the last ATH, the run for the next ATH is starting. Well we`re 32 days away from the close of the actual candle so we can only cross fingers to close it above. Don`t know about you but i`ll keep an eye on this chart for sure.

Actual PA situation:
  • Support and resistance:
  • Support:
  • 1st support - $10500 – last MAJOR resistance.
  • 2nd support - $9000 – also very important due to 3 month chart.
  • Resistance:
  • 1st resistance - $12100-12500 – almost the last bigger resistance before the clear skies, accordingly to VPVR. You saw where we stopped this week – exactly at $12500.
  • 2nd resistance - $14000 – the last resistance before the 20K test I can say (the last top + VPVR). Somewhere between 1st and 2nd resistance is $10K, which can act as a support too cuz of the psychological level.
  • 10 EMA – the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
  • 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
  • Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
  • Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 18 weeks bullish signaling (despite this week`s red candle for now).
  • Weekly pivot point is $11828,22.
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
Bitcoin finding the gains harder each time think we are going to be in for a long ride to see it reach the highs of old.
 

momo3HC

Active member
202 61
BTC 19092020.jpg

Hi all. A couple of weeks no see from me so here I am back again.
Only a small but urgent chart will be today and in the next couple of days will be something bigger and long term.
Let`s get straight to the point with the 1H chart. After some ups, downs and some sideway move the BTC price finally break out upside from the latest symmetrical triangle. First that`s bullish and second my target price from this move is around $11350. As SL I think to use $10900 from this perspective but i`ll keep an eye at this chart and can react as fast as it needed.
Nothing much more to say at this point so i`ll see you at the beginning of the next week.

P.S. If you check the chart now you`ll see a very good confirmation of this breakout.
 

pezza55

Member
56 16
View attachment 288057
Hi all. A couple of weeks no see from me so here I am back again.
Only a small but urgent chart will be today and in the next couple of days will be something bigger and long term.
Let`s get straight to the point with the 1H chart. After some ups, downs and some sideway move the BTC price finally break out upside from the latest symmetrical triangle. First that`s bullish and second my target price from this move is around $11350. As SL I think to use $10900 from this perspective but i`ll keep an eye at this chart and can react as fast as it needed.
Nothing much more to say at this point so i`ll see you at the beginning of the next week.

P.S. If you check the chart now you`ll see a very good confirmation of this breakout.
Bitcoin and all cryptos seem to have taken a fall across the board again this week, breaking down from resistance rather then the bounce up
 

momo3HC

Active member
202 61
BTC 22092020_1.jpg

BTC 22092020_2.jpg

Hi all. From my last post you can see why I don`t like lower time frames and short term BTC analysis at all. It was a good setup but with BTC anything can happen literally from nowhere so that`s why i`m continuing with long term picture.
This time i`ll show you some history and the only question is “Can this history be repeated again?”. From the chart 1 you`ll see and interesting pattern which happened before the second and third ATH. It`s a descending triangle, some sideway move, then an ascending triangle and then… next ATH. It`s happened twice and both times was before the next ATH. Guess what is the chart 2 picturing…? Exactly the same story but it`s happening now. A descending triangle, some sideway move, then an ascending triangle. What`s missing…? Yep, the next ATH! I want to make only 2 clarifications:
1. It`s not 100% sure that the history will repeat but we`ve already saw it so it`s very likely.
2. The latest ascending triangle is not so clear but that`s because of the Corona drop and that drop is something really extraordinary and if the Covid crisis didn`t happened, we would have a perfect ascending triangle. That`s from a technical perspective for now. Now some side words. Like you already may be saw from my charts, i`m a BTC bull. Even a moon boy may be. But let`s be honest for a short term perspective. Exactly in a short term i`m expecting some more blood on the markets and I don`t mean only for a BTC. Like we saw from the last BTC drop, exactly simultaneously Gold, Silver and Oil also dumped. For me that`s a sign of a second Corona dump. It won`t be deadly for BTC for sure but it can hurt, so it`s good all of us to be prepared. Just have this in mind.
The second thing which blew my mind lately is unambiguously. I believe most of you know the story and idea behind the Bitcoin. Also like most of you knows that the real wealthy peoples in the world are small number and they don`t like BTC because they`ll lose their power and they`ll do what`s needed to prevent this from happening. One of these peoples are the Rothschild family. Google them if don`t know who they are. For sure they don`t like BTC but guess what… Their Rothschild Investment Corp is number 15 in the top 20 Institutional Bitcoin Investors list according to not anyone but Forbes. And if that`s not a bullish for BTC…
That’s all for now. See ya next time.
 
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sebking1986

Active member
206 69
Nice analysis as always. Crazy how these patterns repeat themselves or appear to. Hopefully on the verge of a decent bullish move soon.
 

pezza55

Member
56 16
Wow thanks for the history and break down. love seeing it that low and the moves it made. how every one used to say there is no value in BTC and you are wasting your money. if only i had bought a few back then.
cheers for the information and lets hope for the next high
 
 
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