Big Ben on the FTSE100

[tomorton]

I had the same thoughts as you, Tom. We can, always, fight another day. I am unhappy at going to work with stops that, when triggered, will leave me a loss on the trade.
My stop would not have triggered if it had been 8 points lower, but who knows that until afterwards?

I love putting money in the bank, that's the sole point of this game.

This weekend I plan to look at the last 2 weeks' sessions and understand more in detail how price behaves after the Big Ben range limts have been penetrated. I increased my stake size after week 1, but maintaining it at this level for week 3 coming up.

 

[tomorton]

Been looking over last 3 weeks charts on FTSE Rolling and back-applying the rules used as set out previously.

15 charts suggested 8 winners, 2 stopped out, 2 expired for a small gain, 1 expired for a small loss. Two days produced no trade as their Big Ben ranges were >80% of ATR (if they had been taken, 1 would have been a winner, the other a loser).

2 of the winners had Big Ben ranges <25% of ATR, justifying a profit target on entry of 2 x their respective Big Ben range, easily achieved in both cases.

Points accumulated from the 8 full winners = +346
Points lost from the 2 stopped-out losers = -66

This is very limited of course, but encouraging. I will not be further increasing stake size next week but will apply a 3 x Big Ben range target to a position where the range is <25% of ATR. I will also try to wait for US close to 'retire' trades, rather than manually closing positions early.

 

[bangkoker]

Good work, where do you get your ATR figure from for the FTSE100? (or do use a standard historic average?) just wondering, as if I get time I may see if I can look at some samples also.:idea:

 

[tomorton]

Good work, where do you get your ATR figure from for the FTSE100? (or do use a standard historic average?) just wondering, as if I get time I may see if I can look at some samples also.:idea:

I am having to calculate ATR manually (14 days seems to be the period usually used) from the daily high-low range.

 

[bangkoker]

OK, I had good intentions of trying to help out but the data of IG only goes back 3 weeks, so can not see that I am going to be much assistance. If there is a way though, give me a shout as will happily spend sometime to do a further section of back testing. Going to join you on forward test for this as well as trying some longer term ones of fx.

 

[tomorton]

OK, I had good intentions of trying to help out but the data of IG only goes back 3 weeks, so can not see that I am going to be much assistance. If there is a way though, give me a shout as will happily spend sometime to do a further section of back testing. Going to join you on forward test for this as well as trying some longer term ones of fx.

Cheers bangkoker. Actually, my interest is in this as used on the FTSE, though it originated with the GBP/USD. The timing suits my real-job commitments etc., hence my FTSE interest.

But there may be other London-centric (or other exchange-centric) markets where a suitably modified version of Big Ben should work. The DAX comes first to mind, but maybe other currency pairs also if you want to review possibilities for these?

 

[bangkoker]

No my intentions for FTSE as well. Different approach for Forex. I may well consider the Dax though. Will have a look.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

i'd get some futures data, it's more reliable and also you have the potential to automate it. if it worked, why wouldn't you? i'm looking to trade this this week.

as an aside, i'd like to ask who here thinks they can average 4 points profit per day from the ftse?

 

[pcrude]

i'd get some futures data, it's more reliable and also you have the potential to automate it. if it worked, why wouldn't you? i'm looking to trade this this week.

as an aside, i'd like to ask who here thinks they can average 4 points profit per day from the ftse?

I don't see how trying to make 4 pts per day is going to get you very far. The implication is that the stop is too tight. If the stop on FTSE is less than 10 to 15 pts, you could easily get stopped out in what is a perfectly good set up. BB gets round this by having wider stops (and hence also wider profit targets).

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

if you can make 4 points per day net (ie make 20 lose 16 etc) per day starting with £1,000 and betting £1 per point for each £1,000 in your account you can go to £1,000,000 in ten years. that is why 4 points per day net, 20 per week, 80 per month from a strategy is going to get you very far. imagine if you can start with £8,000 say you'd skip a 3 years of the process. i've been trading 10 years and although i've paid the bills i'm certainly not £1,000,000 up in my account. how i wish i'd taken the long view 10 years ago!

 

[pcrude]

if you can make 4 points per day net (ie make 20 lose 16 etc) per day starting with £1,000 and betting £1 per point for each £1,000 in your account you can go to £1,000,000 in ten years. that is why 4 points per day net, 20 per week, 80 per month from a strategy is going to get you very far. imagine if you can start with £8,000 say you'd skip a 3 years of the process. i've been trading 10 years and although i've paid the bills i'm certainly not £1,000,000 up in my account. how i wish i'd taken the long view 10 years ago!

I'm sure we've all done those "what if" calculations. I've been doing this in one capacity or another for nearly 25 years, and it never pans out the way the compounding says it should on the spreadsheet. However, I agree with what you say re the long view - look at Warren Buffett. Never traded a derivative in his life!

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

well actually i think buffet got heavy in to derivs after calling them weapons of mass destruction or some such thing. it seems he accuses everyone else of not understanding them and yet he seems to be able to. also i think buffet has been flattered by trading through the golden years of long only investing. personally i think the game changed in 2000 and might never return in that respect.

http://hubpages.com/hub/Warren-Buffetts-Derivative-Bets

i guess everyone is here for different things. i'm just saying in my experience it's the trader that breaks before the system. the maths doesn't change, the trader does.

the bb range is working well and has a 'reason' behind it. i'm going to trade it with some modification along with that i already do.

i just found it interesting that 'only' doubling your money for ten years made starting from £1k gave you a million. it's a simple fact but powerful none the less.

i wonder how mayn t2w posters have gone broke trying to make 100% in a month when 100% a year is plenty. i include myself in that.

good luck for the rest of the day. i have 6.2 points for the day and will place an order for the bb range and also thinking from tomorrow for doing the same on the dow at 4pm uk time. the thinking being the deals that needed to be done are exhausted by then and a break beyond that range could mean a stronger underlying direction.

stephen

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

right taken from ig i have an 8-10 high and low of 5461.8 and 5434.8 a range of 27 points. have placed a sell stop at 34.8

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

in case it's any use to anyone. here is my 20 break and test open and close today. 6 point stop and 12 point target on entry. i seem to be hitting a 50/50 win rate with these.

 

[Mr. G]

right taken from ig i have an 8-10 high and low of 5461.8 and 5434.8 a range of 27 points. have placed a sell stop at 34.8

No buy stop also?

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

no buy stop entry, only want to play the short side and will use my default 6 point stop. don't like risking more than that.

 

[Nigel_T]

in case it's any use to anyone. here is my 20 break and test open and close today. 6 point stop and 12 point target on entry. i seem to be hitting a 50/50 win rate with these.

Hi Stephen

I like the look of this and have done a quick check over the last three weeks. How do you define a plunge and do you have a time period for the 'test' ?

Thanks

Nigel

 

[CharmerCharts]

Today's Charmer Charts outlook for FTSE.

FTSE hit the target of 5451/53 and then turned sharply lower but bounced back towards
the highs on the close.
If we cannot hold above 5425 then look for a test of better support at 5395/90 and
there is a good chance of a bounce from here. Buyers may wish to add down to
5380. However stops below 5375 could then send prices down to 5359/54 next
which should be enough on the downside for today. If it does fail then look for
5329/25.
Only a break above 5453 allows prices to continue the run higher with 5494/98 the
next target. Above 5512 would then see bulls moving forward as they chase
5542/50 today.

 

[pcrude]

Today's Charmer Charts outlook for FTSE.

FTSE hit the target of 5451/53 and then turned sharply lower but bounced back towards
the highs on the close.
If we cannot hold above 5425 then look for a test of better support at 5395/90 and
there is a good chance of a bounce from here. Buyers may wish to add down to
5380. However stops below 5375 could then send prices down to 5359/54 next
which should be enough on the downside for today. If it does fail then look for
5329/25.
Only a break above 5453 allows prices to continue the run higher with 5494/98 the
next target. Above 5512 would then see bulls moving forward as they chase
5542/50 today.

I don't think this is terribly helpful. First, all it says is the market could go up or it could go down, which I think everyone on this thread knows already. Second, it has nothing to do with Big Ben.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Today's Charmer Charts outlook for FTSE.

FTSE hit the target of 5451/53 and then turned sharply lower but bounced back towards
the highs on the close.
If we cannot hold above 5425 then look for a test of better support at 5395/90 and
there is a good chance of a bounce from here. Buyers may wish to add down to
5380. However stops below 5375 could then send prices down to 5359/54 next
which should be enough on the downside for today. If it does fail then look for
5329/25.
Only a break above 5453 allows prices to continue the run higher with 5494/98 the
next target. Above 5512 would then see bulls moving forward as they chase
5542/50 today.

this is a thread for a specific method. If you have something to offer, why not start a thread or better still post your forcasts in real time so we can see how good you are. We get lots of newbies joining the site offering forcasts but none are any good.If you are good prove it and we will all be delighted