Good thread on trading edge bbmac, and very kind to let us have your presentation - worth reading again, which I will. I have paid good money for less knowledge from well-regarded books on trading.
I guess I still have the blind optimism of youth, never having grown up. I would be less confident if BB had come out of my head on a long Spring walk - in fact it's a bona fide forex strategy which I have purloined for application to the FTSE. The fact that others have made good money out of the mainstream version suggests to me this variation is probably not a suicide mission.
The lack of my own backtesting data doesn't stop me trading this system. In fact, all my research so far has been paid for out of the profits. And even with 10 or 20 or 30 years of day by day data, I would not bet the house on tomorrow's BB trade. I know about LTCM too, I would not be so obstinate as to carry on running and opening losing trades and doubling down based on stats: don't need a Nobel prize to avoid that one.
Yes, failure to manage risk is the only thing that will take a trader out of the game. But that applies no matter what system is used. Failure to react to increased risk, or over-confident acceptance of higher levels of risk, or desperate leveraging to recover losses, yes, these are things that can wipe the trader out: but not me, nor you.
The thread's been clear all along that this is a 'dumb' system that ignores everything we've learned about shares and trading and markets and TA. I said in October that,
'This is a system that orthodox rules will tell you cannot work. 1 trade per day, 1:1 r:r and only 66% win rate.'
Nobody would set out to design a saleable system with such poor parameters. But I still think it can make me money.
