just out of interest, what percentage return this BB trading generate annually?
just out of interest, what percentage return this BB trading generate annually?
Nicely escaped a FTSE100 failure yesterday - the chart shows that a buy order should have triggered between 10 and 10:30. However, I give orders on the index 3pts buffer to allow for the spread and marginal signals like this. That meant my sell order was taken after 1:30: it didn't quite reach target but I was able to take a small profit around the London close.
The week in review -
Big Ben trades signalled gave 3:1 on EUR/USD, 3:1 on FTSE100, 2:2 on GBP/USD, making 8:4 (67%) overall.
Actually, as per the post above, I was able to make 3:0 on the FTSE.
Over the last 4 weeks - 8:7, 8:3 and 7:6, making 23:16 (59%).
The FTSE stands out over the last few weeks: worth noting that of the 3 markets, its ATR was the one that has been rising steadily over the 4 weeks, now up to 90.
Big Ben trades signalled gave 3:1 on EUR/USD, 3:1 on FTSE100, 2:2 on GBP/USD, making 8:4 (67%) overall.
Actually, as per the post above, I was able to make 3:0 on the FTSE.
Over the last 4 weeks - 8:7, 8:3 and 7:6, making 23:16 (59%).
The FTSE stands out over the last few weeks: worth noting that of the 3 markets, its ATR was the one that has been rising steadily over the 4 weeks, now up to 90.
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Orders set for FTSE100 this am but I am passing on EUR/USD and GBP/USD - their early price charts this am look more like thrusts than ranges: both have broken downwards but I fear they will reverse through the day towards their upper BB limits.
Of course, if I really believed a reverse was coming on EUR/USD and GBP/USD I would play it.
So, just for a laugh, I am putting buy orders on both just above the lower BB level - small scale, with tight targets and stops, not looking for full BB range transition.
So, just for a laugh, I am putting buy orders on both just above the lower BB level - small scale, with tight targets and stops, not looking for full BB range transition.
Another escape - buffer of 3pts between the BB range boundary and the entry price kept me out of a EUR/USD long that would have been stopped, and let me go short, currently a little in the money. GBP/USD was caught however by the same pattern so I have ground to make up this afternoon. The FTSE is exhausted.
The week in summary - not as bad as it could have been. With a range of only 120pts, this week could only have been bleak for BB trades. In the end, although most trades expired before hitting targets, 2 made it and only 2 were stopped out. That's about as good as it gets trading a strategy at the very end of the trading calendar that is insensitive of market conditions.
Over 4 weeks, BB signals on the three main markets show 20:14, 59%, same as last week.
Over 4 weeks, BB signals on the three main markets show 20:14, 59%, same as last week.
The next 4 weeks will probably be poor prospects for BB, as low volumes, narrow daily ranges and end-of-year portfolio adjustments become predominant factors. Like this week, when 11 out of 15 trades expired before reaching either targets or stops. Could be a good opportunity to try reverse BB trades, though this requires more screen time than I usually have available at the office. Might be sensible to set targets and stops closer to entry than the full BB range and take whatever the market gives earlier rather than later.
I will not be doing any BB trading the w/e 31/12.
I will not be doing any BB trading the w/e 31/12.
Incidentally, if you're interested in the Big Ben trading style and need something that might suit the holiday market, you might be amused by the Boomerang trade on EUR/USD: with thanks to TheBramble for explaining this to me.
Use the opening price of the 2200 GMT bar, set a sell order 15pips + spread above and a buy order 15 pips + spread below. Target is 2200 opening price, stop is 15 pips outwards from entry in each case. The principle is inverse to BB - market moves over the 2 hours from 2200 are made on very light volume post-US close but pre-Asian open, so moves outside a range will be limited and will often be reversed. If orders not triggered pre-Asian open, cancel them (and go to bed).
Please note, this is only a 1:1 r:r, I have no idea yet what the win rate might be with this strategy, and trading late at night carries its own risks for those who might have over-indulged in Christmas cheer.
Use the opening price of the 2200 GMT bar, set a sell order 15pips + spread above and a buy order 15 pips + spread below. Target is 2200 opening price, stop is 15 pips outwards from entry in each case. The principle is inverse to BB - market moves over the 2 hours from 2200 are made on very light volume post-US close but pre-Asian open, so moves outside a range will be limited and will often be reversed. If orders not triggered pre-Asian open, cancel them (and go to bed).
Please note, this is only a 1:1 r:r, I have no idea yet what the win rate might be with this strategy, and trading late at night carries its own risks for those who might have over-indulged in Christmas cheer.
Boomerang EUR/USD.
Completely misunderstood the strategy (did not read the post correctly) and came up with something else that I fear may confuse some as it is not what Tormorton posted, but here goes!
I backtested the following: Get prIce for 2200 open, add 15 + spread for buy entry, subtract 15 and spread for sell entry, target is 15 points further out and stop loss is 2200 entry. Over the last three weeks there have been 10 wins and 5 losses. Not bad, but if you set the target to 30 points (2:1 r/r) then there were 9 wins and 6 losses. Not bad at all for a set and forget strategy, I'll continue to tabulate data - does anyone have H1 data that goes back further?
Completely misunderstood the strategy (did not read the post correctly) and came up with something else that I fear may confuse some as it is not what Tormorton posted, but here goes!
I backtested the following: Get prIce for 2200 open, add 15 + spread for buy entry, subtract 15 and spread for sell entry, target is 15 points further out and stop loss is 2200 entry. Over the last three weeks there have been 10 wins and 5 losses. Not bad, but if you set the target to 30 points (2:1 r/r) then there were 9 wins and 6 losses. Not bad at all for a set and forget strategy, I'll continue to tabulate data - does anyone have H1 data that goes back further?
Thanks Nigel_T - interesting back-test. That's not a bad win rate with the accidental 'reverse Boomerang'. Optimum exits are so often the weak point of trade systems so it's good to see your research on improving the r:r.
(sorry to be pedantic but your 30pt target gives risk:reward of 1:2, not 2:1, but I'm sure we know what you meant, it's twice as good)
(sorry to be pedantic but your 30pt target gives risk:reward of 1:2, not 2:1, but I'm sure we know what you meant, it's twice as good)
Early finish to the week. I sat the week out and overall Big Ben was indeed probably not worth trading. Results (from charts only) are -
EUR/USD = 1:3
FTSE100 = 1:1
GBP/USD = 3:1
making 5:5 overall, with 3 trades expiring positive and 2 negative. I'm inpressed it was about break-even. I wonder if anyone traded the reverse BBs and got better results?
Over the last 4 weeks, we are -
EUR/USD = 6:6
FTSE100 = 6:3
GBP/USD = 9:6
making 21:15 (58%) overall.
Next BB trades for me will be January but I'll continue to log results from the London charts. Onwards and upwards.
EUR/USD = 1:3
FTSE100 = 1:1
GBP/USD = 3:1
making 5:5 overall, with 3 trades expiring positive and 2 negative. I'm inpressed it was about break-even. I wonder if anyone traded the reverse BBs and got better results?
Over the last 4 weeks, we are -
EUR/USD = 6:6
FTSE100 = 6:3
GBP/USD = 9:6
making 21:15 (58%) overall.
Next BB trades for me will be January but I'll continue to log results from the London charts. Onwards and upwards.
Further review of 200 recent BB charts, covering FTSE100, GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
No trades triggered after 3pm went on to hit targets. 89% of the trades that did hit targets had been triggered by 1pm. Of the trades that were triggered by 1pm but were left open after the London close at 4:30pm, only 4% went on to hit targets.
No trades triggered after 3pm went on to hit targets. 89% of the trades that did hit targets had been triggered by 1pm. Of the trades that were triggered by 1pm but were left open after the London close at 4:30pm, only 4% went on to hit targets.
oiltrader81
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the FSTE is going to trade sideways now. Big moves have to be expected in the new year but at the moment you'd better off banking your profits and walk away
C
cristiano
Cheers Tom for all the time and effort you put in to sharing this with us. 
