Belflan's US stock swing trades

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belflan

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i will be using this thread to develop a swing trade strat for US stocks

First things first

need to identify strong stocks for long swinging

& weak stocks for short swinging....

paper trades only at this stage (need a good big set of swingers:confused: before going live)
 
belflan said:
i will be using this thread to develop a swing trade strat for US stocks

First things first

need to identify strong stocks for long swinging

& weak stocks for short swinging....

paper trades only at this stage (need a good big set of swingers:confused: before going live)
Click to expand...

this is my list 2 left column weak right col umn strong
 

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belflan said:
cheers Grey,

I had started searching through your old posts

this will save me time
Click to expand...
I suggest members to only use this list

a) for swing trading
b) only short the weak stocks long strong stocks

I also feel in your second year of trading ( the second year always starts from the year that you have come out break even for the year ). You can also LONG the weak stocks (for 1 day only ) depending on your experience but I feel you should not be doing this if you not familar with risk managment

Grey
 
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Originally Posted by vegas
Hi Iraj,

I appreciate that this is off topic, however, can you please provide some thoughts on what you consider to be a good swing candidate. What should we/I be looking for in terms of the technical setup
Click to expand...


There are two ways of choosing a good swing trade

1) Technical
2) Technical and fundamental

No 1 type swings is for very short term lets say up to 3 days
No 2 type swings is for much longer period . Weeks ( this type of swing are far far more credible but needs the knowledge of company 's fundamentals) Example I am full of short in my swing portfolio such as BZH,TMR,LUM . These stocks are in the mortgage business .


Most of you guys are TA Trader so lets give the criteria for technical swing
SHORT
1) if MACCI daily is 100 + on Friday
2) Day 1 stock is in negative lets say on Monday
3) At around 8UK time stock is near low of the day ( on Monday again )
4) Open a postion just before market close ( on Monday )
5) close postion on Wednesday

Pos size must come from daily ATR
Stoploss must come from daily ATR ( allow more than 1 ATR due to market volatility @ open )
Target must be 3 times more than stop loss or the third day which ever hits first


You can write a code to automate this on TS and it is not a difficult task .


Grey1
Click to expand...
Good post above for Swingers
 
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View attachment 31464if INDU is trading 13275 or under at close tomorow. i will look to short a basket stocks of the weak list..

I've reduced Grey's weak & strong list to make it easier to watch all stocks (as i don't have radar screen up and running yet)
 
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This is my swing and the only trade for the day . I also traded MBI to day ( intra day ) but had a short pos from Friday as seen .I shorted MBI on Friday based on other TA evidence but I strongly suggest new traders wait for the second day to take a short pos.

I also strongly suggest those who are not familiar with cycle analysis stick to the strategy which I have out lined before which beflan has cut/paste it

As seen the position is still open as I might be able to get author 5K from the trade. We all see it tomorrow,,, so watch MBI again 2morrow,, if the sanata clause rally insist I might close early/ The full point interest rate cut comment by Alexandre could not shift the market to above hence i feel market has yet to forget the sub prime mess and might carry on correcting ,,, As far as Technical is concern no evidence of either way for tomorrow as MACCI INDU on 10 min is around +10 which does not tell me much




Grey1
 

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belflan said:
View attachment 31464if INDU is trading 13275 or under at close tomorow. i will look to short a basket stocks of the weak list..

I've reduced Grey's weak & strong list to make it easier to watch all stocks (as i don't have radar screen up and running yet)
Click to expand...

would like to open shorts (basket) will weight for close below 13275 to show market reversal
(Rubbish)

will wait to get TS2i up and running before entry to swings (need to watch MACCI!)

View attachment 31479
 
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Grey1 said:
This is my swing and the only trade for the day . I also traded MBI to day ( intra day ) but had a short pos from Friday as seen .I shorted MBI on Friday based on other TA evidence but I strongly suggest new traders wait for the second day to take a short pos.

I also strongly suggest those who are not familiar with cycle analysis stick to the strategy which I have out lined before which beflan has cut/paste it

As seen the position is still open as I might be able to get author 5K from the trade. We all see it tomorrow,,, so watch MBI again 2morrow,, if the sanata clause rally insist I might close early/ The full point interest rate cut comment by Alexandre could not shift the market to above hence i feel market has yet to forget the sub prime mess and might carry on correcting ,,, As far as Technical is concern no evidence of either way for tomorrow as MACCI INDU on 10 min is around +10 which does not tell me much




Grey1
Click to expand...

Thanks for the post Grey,

link to Alexandre quote of CNBC = http://www.cnbc.com/id/22077235
 
belflan said:
would like to open shorts (basket) will weight for close below 13275 to show market reversal
(Rubbish)

will wait to get TS2i up and running before entry to swings (need to watch MACCI!)

View attachment 31479
Click to expand...

To save yourself few Cents make sure on the day you open a pos the 10 min MACCI INDU is > 100. ( for short )

Grey1
 
Grey1 said:
To save yourself few Cents make sure on the day you open a pos the 10 min MACCI INDU is > 100. ( for short )

Grey1
Click to expand...

Grey1,

I've noticed that you have mentioned this a number of times, but not the inverse ie open long positions when MACCI INDU < -100.

I assume there is a good reason for this.

For a long time I've suspected that the market is not "symmetrical" with respect to long/short positions and therefore entry criteria for long and short trades are not necessarily the inverse of each other. Do you agree that this is the case ?
 
dcraig1 said:
Grey1,

I've noticed that you have mentioned this a number of times, but not the inverse ie open long positions when MACCI INDU < -100.

I assume there is a good reason for this.

For a long time I've suspected that the market is not "symmetrical" with respect to long/short positions and therefore entry criteria for long and short trades are not necessarily the inverse of each other. Do you agree that this is the case ?
Click to expand...

Market is not symmetrical and I am short Biased but i still like to keep the exit/Entry rules for the swing system outlined above as symmetrical for simplicity till there is further understanding of a) risk 2 b) volatility c) congnitive enginneering of time series ..

It would be best to leave the subject closed IMHO ..

My VWAP engine is a dual side system ( Biased / Non Biased ) depending on time segment generating the signal.

The attached pic shows TIME 1 and TIME 2 as an Input for symmetrical/ Non Symmetrical trading ,,,




grey1
 

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Grey1 said:
This is my swing and the only trade for the day . I also traded MBI to day ( intra day ) but had a short pos from Friday as seen .I shorted MBI on Friday based on other TA evidence but I strongly suggest new traders wait for the second day to take a short pos.

I also strongly suggest those who are not familiar with cycle analysis stick to the strategy which I have out lined before which beflan has cut/paste it

As seen the position is still open as I might be able to get author 5K from the trade. We all see it tomorrow,,, so watch MBI again 2morrow,, if the sanata clause rally insist I might close early/ The full point interest rate cut comment by Alexandre could not shift the market to above hence i feel market has yet to forget the sub prime mess and might carry on correcting ,,, As far as Technical is concern no evidence of either way for tomorrow as MACCI INDU on 10 min is around +10 which does not tell me much




Grey1
Click to expand...
. MBI is down $1.74 as i am writing this ,, I justTraded MBI short intra day ( the swing pos still open ) resulting in a quick scalp of $600 ish on top of the 1700 short
Grey1
 
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MBI down 3.7% again to day and I am still short in it as seen ,, I have been short since Friaday and I am hoping to get another down day from the trade as there is no evidence of financial sector both technically or funamentally gaining any up side momentum The only thing which bothers me is the SANTA rally and I cannot do anything about that


Grey1
 

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