Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

Duke, note the LL on RSI(14) on monthly SPY, SPX, Nasdaq Comp. Not on Dow Jones.

So Duke, is it safe or am I going to need a bigger boat if I decide to Short SPY now? Tempted big.

Also on monthly note the trendline breaks in Macd & RSI withthe line giving resistance to the subsequent rally in RSI

 

[ssam]

Duke, note the LL on RSI(14) on monthly SPY, SPX, Nasdaq Comp. Not on Dow Jones.

So Duke, is it safe or am I going to need a bigger boat if I decide to Short SPY now? Tempted big.

Also on monthly note the trendline breaks in Macd & RSI withthe line giving resistance to the subsequent rally in RSI


View attachment 268591

I am going to throw this chart in here quickly and then hop on the train and give my thoughts.

 

[ssam]

I am going to throw this chart in here quickly and then hop on the train and give my thoughts.View attachment 268593

Firstly the sub wave count 0-1 on the large purple 3 to 4 is invalid! But I was running out of time before having to catch my train so could not delete!

Do I think SPY will head south - yes, potentially - but I would need a couple more entry rules to be met before hopping on. Why do I think south, because large wick rejection from yesterday’s candle, not from the higher high but maybe a sign of exhaustion from that price area.

But for how long - who knows, but looks to be in sideways consolidation. Similar to price action on far left near purple 0 - waves 1,2,3 look to be slightly sideways before the break out.

Looking at RSI - the mid September high did not post a higher high from the blue 0 on RSI.
Maybe running out of steam on the RSI.

Do we have a flat top wedge forming ?

I am not confident enough to trade this and obviously these are only my thoughts.

 

[hatemypips]

Firstly the sub wave count 0-1 on the large purple 3 to 4 is invalid! But I was running out of time before having to catch my train so could not delete!

Do I think SPY will head south - yes, potentially - but I would need a couple more entry rules to be met before hopping on. Why do I think south, because large wick rejection from yesterday’s candle, not from the higher high but maybe a sign of exhaustion from that price area.

But for how long - who knows, but looks to be in sideways consolidation. Similar to price action on far left near purple 0 - waves 1,2,3 look to be slightly sideways before the break out.

Looking at RSI - the mid September high did not post a higher high from the blue 0 on RSI.
Maybe running out of steam on the RSI.

Do we have a flat top wedge forming ?

I am not confident enough to trade this and obviously these are only my thoughts.

What's your view on 1-year SPX performance? going to buy some puts just want to estimate the magnitude of correction.

 

[ssam]

What's your view on 1-year SPX performance? going to buy some puts just want to estimate the magnitude of correction.

Couple questions;

SPX - 1Y forecast or YTD?

As you suggest puts, of course depends on when and for how cheap.

I shall consult the mystical crystal ball and respond once in front of a screen. I am NOT anything but an amateur and I know nothing about SPX... but I know a man know does.

You will see in my posts I just apply my own logic, some times it works. Sometimes it works less!

 

[fibo_trader]

I am going to throw this chart in here quickly and then hop on the train and give my thoughts.View attachment 268593

My 2 cents .......................

(1) Pass your Price trendline thru' the August low and extend. Why? Because RSI broke the wave low in the RSI wave (not Price or Macd, whose waves are intact trendwise) and/or is consolidating with therefore the August low as the true Wave low for that sequence which fits with the concept of a 4th wave.

(2) Then you also have the other Price trendline in my chart. Top parallel line makes a dubious channel

(3)Additionally you have a Fibo hit off the 61.8% base concept (nothing cast in stone), Then you have the bounces off the trampolene aka 200-day ema showing weaker on momentum 3 times

(4) RSI arrives at trendline resistance, Macd bound off its trendline for latest rally

 

[fibo_trader]

My 2 cents .......................

(1) Pass your Price trendline thru' the August low and extend. Why? Because RSI broke the wave low in the RSI wave (not Price or Macd, whose waves are intact trendwise) and/or is consolidating with therefore the August low as the true Wave low for that sequence which fits with the concept of a 4th wave.

(2) Then you also have the other Price trendline in my chart. Top parallel line makes a dubious channel

(3)Additionally you have a Fibo hit off the 61.8% base concept (nothing cast in stone), Then you have the bounces off the trampolene aka 200-day ema showing weaker on momentum 3 times

(4) RSI arrives at trendline resistance, Macd bound off its trendline for latest rally


View attachment 268636

SPY alternate count:

since the moves since the January 2018 top are 3 wave moves, I'm looking into 3-wave moves within the entire rally off the December 2018 low. The only place where a 3-waver does not fin in nicely is the wave that I previously marked as 3. Therefore wave 3 should represent the abc move from the June wave low. Then came the drop into 4 which is a 3-er and the current rally wave which is a 3-er thus far.

If by some fluke this scenario is correct then the 5th wave will be the last one up - and it could even fail to take out the top which would give it the name, "failed 5th" in wave terminology.

 

[fibo_trader]

Posted in Sam's thread already a few minutes ago

GBPJPY 1H/4H


Even my best friends, even my best friends, they don't know
That my job is turning Lead into Gold


GBPJPY 1H: see the yellow channel lines above in quote from last weeek? See the Fibonacci 423.6% hit and correction (mild)? Now seee the rally today as it hits the channel top. Then see Macd sligh divergence but especially on histogram the smaller bars. Then see how Fibo's magnificent RSI trenline nicely contained the correction and then gave a bounce.

Yippie kai yeh, then count the internal subwaves up on 4H for simplicity - 1H might confuse you, pick either, the higher timeframe is always easier to see wave count, bla bla. See the 5 waves.

Take profit = exit short-term trade at 138.76

Retreat to BEAR CAVE and enjoy the spoils of War.

 

[fibo_trader]

God, do I love it so!!!!

Dear God,
Keep it coming. Don't need any inspiration just now. You know I only ask when/if my back is up against the wall. Some serious spending is called for right now - towards others not material goods for myself.

I know that was you with the inspiration on the Moody's AAA Bond rate.

Thanks very much.

Fibo

 

[fibo_trader]

Dear god,

Will continue to go undercover and dig the tunnel for more items leading indicators for Dow JOnes. No help required just yet, the tank is still at 3/4th. I'm going deeper into the Bonds angle for now.

 

[fibo_trader]

Starting a spoils-of-war day with a cup of dark, dark coffee from 3 exotic locations, one being Guatemala

TRADING powerhouse energy factory of Fibo:

Loaded coffee formula, FIBO style .... empowers the brain with fassssst message that energy to come from fats not from carbs, sweetener notwithstanding. already on ketones from the previous nite, so no significant change in message interruption to the intermittent fasting

dark coffee
3 tbsp organic coconut oil
1 tbsp organic butter (Kerrygold)
Piloncillo dark dark brown from Messssyko or Manuka honey as sweetener
Heavy duty Cream (super high fat content)
Milk powder hi iron (haemoglobin) pump the red to the brain, baby, oxygen laden juice for fibo's deep thought-ing

If following a low timeframe heavy duty high leverage wave 3 trade, then for lunch no carbs, just straight Avocado with guacamole style blended

onion
red onion
green onion
cilantro
mint
spincach
kale
beet
tomato
cucumber
apple (low)
pineapple (low)

You gotta roll roll roll thrill my soul all trading day, alright

 

[ssam]

My 2 cents .......................

(1) Pass your Price trendline thru' the August low and extend. Why? Because RSI broke the wave low in the RSI wave (not Price or Macd, whose waves are intact trendwise) and/or is consolidating with therefore the August low as the true Wave low for that sequence which fits with the concept of a 4th wave.

(2) Then you also have the other Price trendline in my chart. Top parallel line makes a dubious channel

(3)Additionally you have a Fibo hit off the 61.8% base concept (nothing cast in stone), Then you have the bounces off the trampolene aka 200-day ema showing weaker on momentum 3 times

(4) RSI arrives at trendline resistance, Macd bound off its trendline for latest rally


View attachment 268636

Nice Fibo - noted on the failed 5th.

The thing I love so much about the markets is they are so unpredictable but yet so predicate. How the fu*k does this self fulfilling prophecy shit play out. Nice TL on MACD and RSI, I would be keen to explore to win ratio or the validity of how much a confluence in RSI and MACD direction give way to price action.

 

[ssam]

Starting a spoils-of-war day with a cup of dark, dark coffee from 3 exotic locations, one being Guatemala

TRADING powerhouse energy factory of Fibo:

Loaded coffee formula, FIBO style .... empowers the brain with fassssst message that energy to come from fats not from carbs, sweetener notwithstanding. already on ketones from the previous nite, so no significant change in message interruption to the intermittent fasting

dark coffee
3 tbsp organic coconut oil
1 tbsp organic butter (Kerrygold)
Piloncillo dark dark brown from Messssyko or Manuka honey as sweetener
Heavy duty Cream (super high fat content)
Milk powder hi iron (haemoglobin) pump the red to the brain, baby, oxygen laden juice for fibo's deep thought-ing

If following a low timeframe heavy duty high leverage wave 3 trade, then for lunch no carbs, just straight Avocado with guacamole style blended

onion
red onion
green onion
cilantro
mint
spincach
kale
beet
tomato
cucumber
apple (low)
pineapple (low)

You gotta roll roll roll thrill my soul all trading day, alright

This is a MEGA fibre diet Fibo. Keeps the insides is mint nick. One suggestion, green chilli in your guacamole.

Also, kerry gold - you have too much dough.... must be near on 10bucks for a block of that.

What’s wrong with I can’t belive it’s not butter....


Ok back to the serious sh!t

 

[fibo_trader]

Nice Fibo - noted on the failed 5th.

The thing I love so much about the markets is they are so unpredictable but yet so predicate. How the fu*k does this self fulfilling prophecy shit play out. Nice TL on MACD and RSI, I would be keen to explore to win ratio or the validity of how much a confluence in RSI and MACD direction give way to price action.

The Macd and RSI are absolutely top-notch. In female jargon both are straight 10s.

Get into the habit of viewing both on the monthly chart with all instruments you research. You alreadyknow from your study of TREND that a lower low on Price is significant damage to a Trend - ditto for a LL on RSI. See SPY monthly for the LL on RSI

 

[fibo_trader]

This is a MEGA fibre diet Fibo. Keeps the insides is mint nick. One suggestion, green chilli in your guacamole.

Also, kerry gold - you have too much dough.... must be near on 10bucks for a block of that.

What’s wrong with I can’t belive it’s not butter....


Ok back to the serious sh!t

yes of course thanks about the chilli, I will add it. Used to add it to stir fry stuff always

kerrygold here does not strike me as expensive - I would have noticed it if it was out there in price

about the other types of butter, I have nighmares about the transfats in the immitation butters so avoid all those and go for the pure stuff - might even go for Lard as Iheard its evern better, needs more research

Deeeep sleep is a huge plus = Fibo knocks out within 2 minutes of hitting the pillow and if I get some humma-humma, within 15 seconds, which infuriates the softies becasue they want to TALK

 

[fibo_trader]

Duke, see this GBP thread for my posts but read the title first and then from memory, remember how every mother's son had condemned GBP and given up on its resurrection? Then go read my contrarian calls and posts. Enjoy. So this is a two-fer, i.e Sentiment Analysis & TA, a match made in HEAVEN.

There are many threads condemning GBP for several months all over the place, at ET too. these cats never learn. Theydeserve to be hit on the head with this song ...........

Every mistake we must surely be learning
Still my guitar gently weeps

GBP -It Sucks

Man gbp is so weak, when will we ever see any strength. im thinking the new PM coming in may swing it either way depending who comes in

www.trade2win.com

 

[fibo_trader]

Boeing: the lies they told were astonishing. Their reign is over. Bull market icons get slaughtered in a BEAR. Their deceit will cripple them more.

Go to thread title same as here under my name, fibo_trader, go to page 46 and there you will see my recent call on Boeing made on March 27, 2019 ...........................

"when a juicy big red bar punches a big hole in the 200-day ema it will be the start of Boeing's waterfall decline"

Happening today, May 7, 2019. But the 200-day has elasticity, no? It sure does. So at least a bounce? One would think so. But only if this is not a 3rd wave decline.

Hide & watch. This prince is heavily weighted in the Dow.

SLAM DUNK!! BOEING


Nobody could or can make such a TOP CALL. It was truly spectacular. After the first drop, Boeing started dancing around in a rectangular structure and confused the daylights out of everyone but Fibo. The dance dazzled 'em all. But fibo siad to hisself, "wtf if this is the setup for a 3rd wave?"

Ther's nobody like Fibo in Brit-Land. Never will be.

 

[fibo_trader]

SLAM DUNK!! BOEING


Nobody could or can make such a TOP CALL. It was truly spectacular. After the first drop, Boeing started dancing around in a rectangular structure and confused the daylights out of everyone but Fibo. The dance dazzled 'em all. But fibo siad to hisself, "wtf if this is the setup for a 3rd wave?"

Ther's nobody like Fibo in Brit-Land. Never will be.





View attachment 268847



View attachment 268848

Warriors of Fibo ilk will pay heed to the Macd hook abd cross of 0-line (daily) and the RSI reaching 10 on the 1H.

We party now, OK

 

[fibo_trader]

The party on my CALL on Boeing continues unabated with another great one

 

[fibo_trader]

see post #1097 for mention of a 3rd wave then see chart on 1H below. that's what a 3rd wave is, a staggering collapse where full throttle is used. I have not looked at it further to chart but will do so next week. It needs Fibo levels and other stuff. Note: this is only 1H so things can change fast and we can get an upwave rally, so be prepared, don't fall asleep thinking that a 3rd wave does not subdivide into 2 rallies, wave 2 and 4. Yeah, be on guard but pocket the moolah like a champ

Extremely oversold RSI is a hallmark of a 3rd wave