ARM Hldgs.(ARM)...

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Naz said:
Here's my view point.Its not picking an argument,its just a personal view point,and i realy dont wish to offend anyone.

First of all if any of you are daytrading Arm using charts,then consider seeing me and i'll show you how to REALY daytrade a semi with Nasdaq level 2.What you will see will blow your socks off.If you make money daytrading one semi with a chart imagine what you could do if you had charts and NL2 and some of the best semi's in the world to pick from.


The point is NAZ, that they don't want to trade US,no matter how rosy you make it look. Remember- each to his own. Riz likes to swing trade ARM and is very successful at it. He doesnt care either if he only squeezes 60% of the move- he's made a proifit and he makes a living, and probably stress free and without staring at a L2 screen all day. What I'd call a layed back arm-chair sort of approach. Suits me Sir! It matters very little to me either, what happens over in the US overnight, and how that effects the following morning in the UK. I swing ARM, and have my plan and stick to it. If it gaps up or down due to external influences,it's no big deal. I set out my table and eat off it......
 

Naz

Experienced member
1,391 22
Chartman i always have the utmost respect for how anyone trades.However this is a thread on Arm holdings that many people read and i'm putting a different point of view across for people to look at.I always know that my views are slightly different but i hope it makes one or two people stop and think.

Arm fell again yesterday and one or two people might want to know why i think it did.I put it to you that Arm fell because of bad news in the US which pulled down the Nasdaq and the $sox.For me it didnt fall because Arm had made a particular level on a chart or an oscillator showed a sell signal.It fell because it followed the US.

Now i would be interested as to how strong Arm felt against those outside influences.if it felt strong i would say you know what if the $sox turns up i'd be a buyer because Arm felt strong in this last little down turn or i'd say the reverse.For me i can feel the strength and weakness of a stock against an index because i can view the intimate transactions on my Nasdaq level 2 screen.

Does this mean if i swing trade i'm glued to it all the time ?No i'm not.But at important times of the day or support and resistance levels i can have a window on the possible direction of my stock before it appears on a chart and with direct access i can execute where i want to and not where some third party quotes a price.

At all other times i'm not looking at my swing trade i have an automatic stop inserted in my level 2 software that will take me out.This means that i can have all the benefits of Nasdaq level 2 and walk away from my screens for as long as i want to.

This means that on any swing that i'm going for i can look for approx 85% of the run and not 60% that more conservative players try for.Those extra 25%'s all add up.

I know that some traders in the UK are realy happy taking a laid back approach and that is great.However there are some that feel that they want a little more understanding of whats going on and may be a different point of view might help.
 
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Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Naz, your points on trading ARM are useful, most followers of this thread know how news driven ARM is and the way it follows the semis in US, all already mentioned...no harm in hearing them from you too of course...as a regular arm trader I can only be pleased to see more people on this board following it...everyone may have different methods of following and trading ARM, but overall it's a combination that works best in my opinion...I myself use chart patterns (spikes, bounce signals, etc), L2 as well as news...depending on the period one may always take the proprity, it works best when they all signal the same direction of course, like this last bounce on monday, positive news in w/e papers, favourable chart pattern emerging and positive orders flow on L2 starting first thing on Monday...no reason not to pile in and add up till it hits resistance...reversal also followed similar pattern, US down overnight, on the chart failed to break through resistance (370) and finally negative order flow on L2...

You dont of course always find them all pointing to the same direction...it then depends on the inidvidual how to make use of it...

As for Nasdaq L2, I already us UK L2 and inspite of only about 40% of trades going through the order book (the rest in the underlying market), mainpulation, etc..I am still able to use it in favour of my trades...as long as this system works for me I have no intention of trying new ones in which I'll be a beginner and risk to pay for inexperience as it's always the case...

We had a pretty good idea about your system the first time you posted it on this board, I am sure any one in search of an alternative trading system or not happy with their existing one who find your system worth to give a try has already got the message and either already in touch with you or considering it...on the other hand you're pushing your system too enthusiastically and it's all over this board to a degree of ramping it...I dont think this is neccessary and personally dont like to see it in every single thread over and over again...

Good luck and happy trading#

Riz
 

RogerM

Established member
752 6
Arm is a beautiful range trading share. The recent move down from 420 to 320 is a classic and it just remains to be seen whether 320 holds or whether we are on the way back down to 190 which has been tested 3 times now. Also all the trends drawn on the chart are parallel, both up and down, which is a help in picking entries and exits.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Well, that's one viewpoint, and I cant argue against black and white. Here is an interesting scenario that everyone in TA should to take on board. PLEASE remember, everyone has their own interpretation of chart analysis. It is not an exact science and no one person can see all the angles of the same picture. I agree with you 100% Roger- it's a great share to trade. Take a look at this image of ARM though....doesn't look too much like your chart does it...But it is. It's just a wider time frame and line chart as opposed to OHLC. Your chart tempts one into believing ARM is going sideways, yet this chart ( I think) would temt you into believing ARM is in a nice up channel with loads more to go and sitting right on the bottom. How can it possibly go to 190?
Well, that's the point. We don't and can't know.If you go long it'll tank, if you short it, it'll fly. A good case of damned if you do and damned if you don't. Each chart and each timescale and OHLC/Line/Candles all give a different picture. This is why I get such a buzz from TA. All of a sudden someone ( Roger) pulls up a chart and I see something that I had not recognised before.
My opinion is that ARM is at a bottom and we will continue on up. My reason? There has been long term positive divergence in CCI and Phase ( and others) since mid February this year. Will that make me go long Monday morning? NO- because it is in "no mans land". It either needs to close above 364 and break the downtrend resistance line, or drop below 311 to break uptrend support. Either way, waiting will give maximum reward/risk, with still plenty in it without having to "gamble". The upside will give 25% and the downside will give 30%.
 

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RogerM

Established member
752 6
Martin - I wouldn't disagree with that analysis either, and if 320 holds and it rallies up through the top of the range, we'll both be right, as it bounces off both my intermediate support, and your uptrend, in an area where they both coincide. And very often when clear support and trends coincide they act to reinforce each other. I certainly wouldn't go short on ARM from here, but may be a buyer if support and trend holds.
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
arm finally stopped falling (mostly on sector uncertainty and -ve Nasdaq sentiment) and bounced forming 2 bottom...stochastics cross over at over sold levels both ticking up sharply, rsi also oversold and slightly ticking up...last up sessions on relatively higher volumes...

2nd quarter figures due on the 15 April...looks like the fall is overdone and arm may continue up from here till their 2nd quarter figures...

Riz

(no financial advise intended)

Sharky: screen becoming too wide to read easily on this thread, any chance of fixing it? cheers...

How's That.....Martin :)
 

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Naz

Experienced member
1,391 22
Here is a view of Arm (ARMHY) from the Nasdaq.Its still in a down trend and weak against the $sox.As Riz says its got second quater figures which may give it a short term lift.

But for me, Morgan Stanley transacted 47% of the stock in Feb and 36% of the stock over the year.He is one hell of a strong ax.If he dosnt know where the stock is going,no one does.I'd like to see him be a strong buyer before i went long and if it touched $11 again there is only one guy on the level 2 screen i'd be watching and his code is MSCO.He's the man, he'll tell you where its going and you'll see him on the Nasdaq level 2 screen.

For those that know about ax's,the secondary ax only transacts about 5% of the stock.That shows you just how important Morgan Stanley is.
 

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Naz

Experienced member
1,391 22
This is a personal view.think about this seriously.The UK market shuts at 4.30PM.Whilst the Nasdaq keeps trading to 9pm GMT.If the $sox makes an extreme move then it could very likely happen outside UK hours. What chance has the Arm holdings trader on the UK market have in responding?

As the stock trades on the Nasdaq even an internet account with Ameritrade would allow the UK trader to hedge his position if anything untoward happened.

If you traded Arm on the Nasdaq as well as the UK market you would have total control at all times on your position.Having a controling market maker in a Nasdaq stock that moves such large quantaties of stock like Morgan Stanley is quite rare.It is inconcievable that he would take the opposite direction of where the stock was going to move to.Indeed it is his trading that would dictate where the stock went.

So my argument is that by trading Arm with two accounts,one in the UK and one in the US would give Arm traders more flexibility and information whilst managing their position.

Finally if you have a Nasdaq account you might like to have a look at other semis that are strong against the $sox at the moment and in an up trend like Kla-tencor(KLAC) and Applied Materials.(AMAT)
 

Bill G

Member
92 2
Its' the first time of posting a chart so if it doesn't look right
excuse me.
The ADX is rising (trying to trend?) but the volumes don't look right to me for a proper reversal, look at the vol. the 3/4 it's down volume I would need to see higher up volumes on the 4th. and 5th.
Bill G
 

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madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
My charts say: oversold based on CCI and RSI (at bottom), selling volumes high. CCI has turned up saying buy but all 3 trending colour markers in the middle of the chart say down or wait..
 

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Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
What a day and what a performance by ARM!
Opened up and kept going up non-stop, hit 285 by midday, retraced on the doom and gloom in the market but still managed to close up +5.81 at 274 on a day like this..no need to go on saying it will carry on up tomorrow...

In the mean time it was upgraded:

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in ARM Holdings PLC were rallying in morning deals as Merrill Lynch reiterated 'strong buy' advice and raised 2003 earnings forecasts ahead of the microchip designer's first quarter results due April 15, dealerssaid.
Merrill advised clients that it does not expect the results to disappoint the market's consensus forecasts of 14.9 mln stg pretax and EPS of 1.0 penny.
The US broker also believes ARM's numbers should imply a resumption of license deal growth that should counter claims that momemtum is slowing.
In a morning note, Merrill raised its 2003 EPS estimate to 5.7 pence from 5.5 to reflect a 30 pct acceleration in royalty growth and a continued broadening of license income thanks to increasing R&D budgets.
On valuation, Merrill sees ARM's stock trading at 58 times current year earnings, its lowest ever rating.
And at 47 times 2003 earnings, the broker sees this in line with valuations of US semiconductor groups such as Texas Instruments, Linear and RFMicro, and well below the communications IC companies.
This led Merrill to reiterate a 400 pence price objective, with the broker advising that momentum and valuation are behind the stock at its current share price.
At 11.32 am, shares in ARM added 12 pence to 281, leading the FTSE 100 gainers.
This extended Friday's 6 pence advance after both JP Morgan and Banc of America recommended the stock as a 'buy'.
JP Morgan advised clients that it expects ARM to meet or beat first quarter market expectations and thinks upside on the stock still exists. BoA, meanwhile, was advising that current uncertainty around its end-markets looks overdone.
ARM's stock has fallen 12.5 pct over the past month.
bge/cmr

Riz
 

Bill G

Member
92 2
Still don't think it's a reversal.The ADX has changed direction
indicating it is in a trading range. I tend to look at the Chaikin oscillator which is diverging down.Still an interesting situation.
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Keeps going up in spite of some objections here though :)

Ended the day up +9.0 (3.3%) at 283 after hitting 290 intraday...

Only the doom & gloom in the market in general still there, sox closed down -3.16%, Nasdaq -2.42%, this certainly putting pressure on ARM's advance, may therefore be depressed tomorrow, but on its own merit ARM is up till 2nd quarter results by the look...2 tops and 2 bottoms are very efffective on ARM price moves, implications suggesting a much higher level only with results soon and market in general in a limbo I dont want to go that far for now...

Riz
 

titus-uk

1
291 5
ARM

I have to admit, I am not a day-trader, and have therefore been caught with the rapid rises and falss of ARM in the past. However, since 19/11/01 it has been in a continuous downtrend, and any rally within that trend should not be trusted. Although the "professional brokers" are starting to hype things now (like before the last quarters results); I remember then people feeling fairly pessimistic about the results due next week (following guidance from the board).

I would only by ARM once this downtrend is broken, which stands today at 310p.

good luck,

Mark
 

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