Don't get carried away...but we need to follow positive signals as well as negative ones to prepare ourselves best for the next round when the bears give up...
The following article is discussing if the UK shares are top bargain...I personally neither agree nor disagree as I need more signals to make sure that the US markets are at the turn round point...althogh I am sure it won't take long for the rate cuts, a full 1-1/2 percentage-point so far in three months will soon start working its way into the stock market...
Nasdaq's performance On Friday is also worth pondering on.. the low of the year of 1,794 which was set intra-day last week was successfully tested and Nasdaq spent most of the day climbing in and out of the plus column before closing positive... Is it going to retest this point before bottoming out? Looks like we'll find the answer next week...
Considering most valuation problems have been resolved, some analysts think the Nasdaq is building a base here...it might be...at leasts there are signs...of course one can never be %100 sure until it shows an ability to climb back properly...
Just as Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates said, "This may be the bottom but you can call a bottom till you're blue in the face and be wrong more than you're right.."
Another thing making it so difficult to predict this market is the lack of follow through...we need to wait and see this...
There are also indications that the market might be firming below the surface of this sell-off: "the number of stocks that are hitting new lows is fewer on a relative basis than at other low points of the last year"
It is such indications making Robert Dickey of Dain Rauscher believe a bottom is forming: "Based on the short and intermediate-term oversold condition of the market, it appears that this current choppy period is forming a bottom from which a rally of at least 1-2 months duration will follow..."
No doubt about the bottom being formed and the follow-up short term rally once it's formed...the question is when...well it looks like we'll have more to say next week...just one more point...from now on it won't be the whole market going up or down...normally at such stages of bottom forming you see some going up while others going down...to me this suggests that the stock picking time has started...only it has to be done very cautiously keeping in mind that there are still UK tech companies that haven't announced their profit warnings due to their big exposures to the US..if they turned out to be non-effected -which is unlikely- we'll see them flying, otherwise we might see them going further down...
Enjoy the article and good luck to you all
Riz
UK shares top bargain
Brett Arends, Daily Mail 31 March 2001
OOD news: the big money boys are starting to shop for shares again - putting UK equities top of their lists.
Fund managers worldwide believe good values have appeared following the recent crash and are buying most in London and Tokyo, says the latest Reuters survey of 53 top global institutions.
HSBC strategist Peter Oppenheimer says: 'While there are risks for the markets from here, our view is that buying into further bad corporate news should now pay off.'
However, US funds believe Wall Street will fall further, and sold shares there this month despite the reduced prices. Our chart shows just how high the Dow Jones index remains, in historic terms, even after recent falls. London has risen much more modestly, while Tokyo is near 15-year lows. Many in the US fear continued layoffs will start to hammer consumer spending there, sending profits and shares tumbling again.
Fund manager Gerald Holtman says: 'I'm buying the equity market when that happens, but not until then.'
The following article is discussing if the UK shares are top bargain...I personally neither agree nor disagree as I need more signals to make sure that the US markets are at the turn round point...althogh I am sure it won't take long for the rate cuts, a full 1-1/2 percentage-point so far in three months will soon start working its way into the stock market...
Nasdaq's performance On Friday is also worth pondering on.. the low of the year of 1,794 which was set intra-day last week was successfully tested and Nasdaq spent most of the day climbing in and out of the plus column before closing positive... Is it going to retest this point before bottoming out? Looks like we'll find the answer next week...
Considering most valuation problems have been resolved, some analysts think the Nasdaq is building a base here...it might be...at leasts there are signs...of course one can never be %100 sure until it shows an ability to climb back properly...
Just as Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates said, "This may be the bottom but you can call a bottom till you're blue in the face and be wrong more than you're right.."
Another thing making it so difficult to predict this market is the lack of follow through...we need to wait and see this...
There are also indications that the market might be firming below the surface of this sell-off: "the number of stocks that are hitting new lows is fewer on a relative basis than at other low points of the last year"
It is such indications making Robert Dickey of Dain Rauscher believe a bottom is forming: "Based on the short and intermediate-term oversold condition of the market, it appears that this current choppy period is forming a bottom from which a rally of at least 1-2 months duration will follow..."
No doubt about the bottom being formed and the follow-up short term rally once it's formed...the question is when...well it looks like we'll have more to say next week...just one more point...from now on it won't be the whole market going up or down...normally at such stages of bottom forming you see some going up while others going down...to me this suggests that the stock picking time has started...only it has to be done very cautiously keeping in mind that there are still UK tech companies that haven't announced their profit warnings due to their big exposures to the US..if they turned out to be non-effected -which is unlikely- we'll see them flying, otherwise we might see them going further down...
Enjoy the article and good luck to you all
Riz
UK shares top bargain
Brett Arends, Daily Mail 31 March 2001
OOD news: the big money boys are starting to shop for shares again - putting UK equities top of their lists.
Fund managers worldwide believe good values have appeared following the recent crash and are buying most in London and Tokyo, says the latest Reuters survey of 53 top global institutions.
HSBC strategist Peter Oppenheimer says: 'While there are risks for the markets from here, our view is that buying into further bad corporate news should now pay off.'
However, US funds believe Wall Street will fall further, and sold shares there this month despite the reduced prices. Our chart shows just how high the Dow Jones index remains, in historic terms, even after recent falls. London has risen much more modestly, while Tokyo is near 15-year lows. Many in the US fear continued layoffs will start to hammer consumer spending there, sending profits and shares tumbling again.
Fund manager Gerald Holtman says: 'I'm buying the equity market when that happens, but not until then.'
