Are these forums essentially just the blind leading the blind?

Xylitol

Junior member
35 6
It feels like internet forums (such as trade2win and others) are full of people who take trading seriously, they come across as knowledgeable and like they know what they're talking about. But in reality, they don't have much of a clue and don't make any money in the markets.

The problem with forums is that "consensus opinions" are built up among the community (eg. X book is good, Y strategy is correct) and anyone who deviates away from such opinions are labelled as trolls. So this creates an echo chamber of (often wrong) opinions on certain subjects which get perpetuated over and over (even worse, it gets put in sticky threads for newbies to read). Hence it becomes a place where the blind leads the blind. Newbies repeatedly get fed wrong or misleading information from people who think they are right, and no one makes any money.

The truly good information is never posted. This is from professional traders who know that posting such information would destroy any edge they have in the markets. So what you get on a forum is simply speculation and advice which doesn't ultimately help people make money.

I'd also be interested to know who is a profitable trader on these forums. I'd hazard a guess that at least 95% on here lose money, maybe more. The rest either break even, or make small profits which are down to luck.

Sorry for the rather negative outlook on things, but that's just the way I see it. What are people's thoughts on this issue?
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
It feels like internet forums (such as trade2win and others) are full of people who take trading seriously, they come across as knowledgeable and like they know what they're talking about. But in reality, they don't have much of a clue and don't make any money in the markets.

The problem with forums is that "consensus opinions" are built up among the community (eg. X book is good, Y strategy is correct) and anyone who deviates away from such opinions are labelled as trolls. So this creates an echo chamber of (often wrong) opinions on certain subjects which get perpetuated over and over (even worse, it gets put in sticky threads for newbies to read). Hence it becomes a place where the blind leads the blind. Newbies repeatedly get fed wrong or misleading information from people who think they are right, and no one makes any money.

The truly good information is never posted. This is from professional traders who know that posting such information would destroy any edge they have in the markets. So what you get on a forum is simply speculation and advice which doesn't ultimately help people make money.

I'd also be interested to know who is a profitable trader on these forums. I'd hazard a guess that at least 95% on here lose money, maybe more. The rest either break even, or make small profits which are down to luck.

Sorry for the rather negative outlook on things, but that's just the way I see it. What are people's thoughts on this issue?
Whilst I agree with some of your views , there are some that I don't agree with.

There is truly good information that I posted here , if you look at some of my threads , of the many that I started.

You will even find a method in them to make you living .So be positive and find the half full glass.

Nobody loses their edge , if they disclose an edge .This is a fallacy , that giving a edge destroys your edge.

One person posted that he knew only 4 members he knew were profitable out of 200k , Maybe he does not know everybody.
 

Dr. Toad

Active member
169 33
If you're of the opinion that nothing posted here has any merit, then this forum provides a wealth of information of what not to do. So look around at what people are doing and just do the opposite and make millions?

One common "fallacy" posted here is to not do a martingale strategy. Since this is probably the most posted "don't do this" type item, I recommend you attempt it yourself to experience the results firsthand. I must admit, I have not done this which is probably why I can't make money.

I, from time to time, challenge what people advise against on these forums by doing my own analysis on what happens if you do what they advise against. I also try to do things that no one else is doing on here and, sometimes, try to emulate what people do. But then, I fall under the doesn't make money umbrella, so you can tick the box of anything I post under the "don't do this" category.

But as foroom lluzers so eloquently pointed out, everything he posts is a gem. So, if you want to make money, do what foroom lluzers does and do the opposite of what everyone else does. Just do me a favor. Once you figure out exactly what foroom lluzers does, please summarize it for me because I want to make money too...I just can't figure out exactly what it is foroom lluzers does besides stroke his massive ego.
 
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Xylitol

Junior member
35 6
My thoughts are: Why did you join T2W?
Well initially it was for advice on trading, but after some research, I soon realised that was a terrible idea. Think about it logically - why would anyone with good money making advice be giving it out for free on forums?

Whilst I agree with some of your views , there are some that I don't agree with.

There is truly good information that I posted here , if you look at some of my threads , of the many that I started.

You will even find a method in them to make you living .So be positive and find the half full glass.

Nobody loses their edge , if they disclose an edge .This is a fallacy , that giving a edge destroys your edge.

One person posted that he knew only 4 members he knew were profitable out of 200k , Maybe he does not know everybody.
How do you know it's good information? This is the thing, people on forums think they know what they're talking about. But if you truly knew what you were talking about, you'd be a multi-millionaire from trading by now.

If you're of the opinion that nothing posted here has any merit, then this forum provides a wealth of information of what not to do. So look around at what people are doing and just do the opposite and make millions?

One common "fallacy" posted here is to not do a martingale strategy. Since this is probably the most posted "don't do this" type item, I recommend you attempt it yourself to experience the results firsthand. I must admit, I have not done this which is probably why I can't make money.

I, from time to time, challenge what people advise against on these forums by doing my own analysis on what happens if you do what they advise against. I also try to do things that no one else is doing on here and, sometimes, try to emulate what people do. But then, I fall under the doesn't make money umbrella, so you can tick the box of anything I post under the "don't do this" category.

But as foroom lluzers so eloquently pointed out, everything he posts is a gem. So, if you want to make money, do what foroom lluzers does and do the opposite of what everyone else does. Just do me a favor. Once you figure out exactly what foroom lluzers does, please summarize it for me because I want to make money too...I just can't figure out exactly what it is foroom lluzers does besides stroke his massive ego.
You need to look at the wider picture of what I posted, not just take it at face value and make sarcastic remarks. Obviously the extremely basic advice on forums is ok, but beyond that, most of the advice that is posted is misleading and potentially dangerous to any newbie. This is because of this echo chamber effect, from people who don't know what they're doing. Retail traders lose money. You guys are retail traders. It's the investment banks, hedge funds etc. who are making the money, at your expense.
 

Dr. Toad

Active member
169 33
My advise to you was only partially sarcastic. Originally when I started here I was trying to match other people's systems. Really now I just use the forums to get new ideas...both what people advise against and what people advise for. Recently my tendency has been to do what no one else does on here...but really the only way to see if something works is to backtest it yourself and come to your own conclusions.

Believe me, I have spent many hours backtesting martingale type strategies purely because it is the most advised against thing to do and therefore probably one of the most poorly vetted ideas...and if 90% of traders fail, then you should do either:

1. What they can't do/aren't willing to put the time into doing (for me, this is trade automation, but there are other things I am sure).

2. What they aren't willing to do (martingale type strategies, strategies that have higher risk than reward potential, others that I haven't thought of yet).

I actually do think a flavor of a martingale strategy can work...not one where you add to losing positions repeatedly, moreso one that does not have a defined stop at a loss...I think with proper diversification this could work, but in order to have proper diversification, you need a very large account...somewhere on the order of magnitude of a quarter million.

Not pulling numbers or conclusions out of my ass here either...I have looked at this...just haven't fully vetted it yet since I don't have this capital allocation...yet. Which leads me to the only advise I can really give anyone as far as trading goes. Backtest and come to your own conclusions.
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,319 1,569
Well initially it was for advice on trading, but after some research, I soon realised that was a terrible idea. Think about it logically - why would anyone with good money making advice be giving it out for free on forums?

How do you know it's good information? This is the thing, people on forums think they know what they're talking about. But if you truly knew what you were talking about, you'd be a multi-millionaire from trading by now.

You need to look at the wider picture of what I posted, not just take it at face value and make sarcastic remarks. Obviously the extremely basic advice on forums is ok, but beyond that, most of the advice that is posted is misleading and potentially dangerous to any newbie. This is because of this echo chamber effect, from people who don't know what they're doing. Retail traders lose money. You guys are retail traders. It's the investment banks, hedge funds etc. who are making the money, at your expense.

And you know all this from the basis of having no real knowledge or experience of trading then? Just your fixed opinion is it?

Investment banks and hedge funds market activity have about as much in common with retail trading as a trawler has with an angler on the cliff edge. Read Gamma Jammer's articles about life as a spot forex trader if you want some idea of the difference. Here's the first one http://www.trade2win.com/articles/752-day-life-forex-spot-desk-trader-part-1-a
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
Here is something to learn ,that you are suffering from inattention blindness of some of the good information here .

Inattentional blindness, also known as perceptual blindness, is a psychological lack of attention that is not associated with any vision defects or deficits. It may be further defined as the event in which an individual fails to perceive an unexpected stimulus that is in plain sight.
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
Well initially it was for advice on trading, but after some research, I soon realised that was a terrible idea. Think about it logically - why would anyone with good money making advice be giving it out for free on forums?

How do you know it's good information? This is the thing, people on forums think they know what they're talking about. But if you truly knew what you were talking about, you'd be a multi-millionaire from trading by now.
You may not believe ,that I know what I am talking about.If you read some of the psychology threads and what I have written , it will give you an idea of "me".What I have given , you will not find in any books , I gave it because I don't need it , even though it may cost a fortune .It is the road map to the gold with the psychological handicaps.I have found my own road map /strategy (free of psychological handicaps) , which I give you hints about , but I never declared this strategy here .

There is good information on this forum and there is information of posters , many are just opinions of learners and amateurs.

Forums are places , where you can be given good doubts about your own vision.It may help you see a different perspective and a different view.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,371 995
Think about it logically - why would anyone with good money making advice be giving it out for free on forums?

Firstly there is a genuine sense of comradeship amongst traders. We've all struggled at some time or other, usually when first starting out but things go wrong at other times too and its really helpful to have other views of possible improvements or solutions.

Secondly you can regard it as not totally free anyway. I have profitable approaches to trading but I visit this forum to dig up challenges to my own strategies and ways of thinking. Sometimes I provoke challenges to see if my systems fall apart under independent scrutiny. This will make them stronger, meaning more profit for me, so a few posts of advice in return about what I do and how I do it is only fair payment in recompense.

Thirdly even if I disclose every single minute detail of how I trade, it has no impact on how the markets behave, so there is no negative impact on my trading. From that point of view, disclosure is free to me.
 

Xylitol

Junior member
35 6
My advise to you was only partially sarcastic. Originally when I started here I was trying to match other people's systems. Really now I just use the forums to get new ideas...both what people advise against and what people advise for. Recently my tendency has been to do what no one else does on here...but really the only way to see if something works is to backtest it yourself and come to your own conclusions.

Believe me, I have spent many hours backtesting martingale type strategies purely because it is the most advised against thing to do and therefore probably one of the most poorly vetted ideas...and if 90% of traders fail, then you should do either:

1. What they can't do/aren't willing to put the time into doing (for me, this is trade automation, but there are other things I am sure).

2. What they aren't willing to do (martingale type strategies, strategies that have higher risk than reward potential, others that I haven't thought of yet).

I actually do think a flavor of a martingale strategy can work...not one where you add to losing positions repeatedly, moreso one that does not have a defined stop at a loss...I think with proper diversification this could work, but in order to have proper diversification, you need a very large account...somewhere on the order of magnitude of a quarter million.

Not pulling numbers or conclusions out of my ass here either...I have looked at this...just haven't fully vetted it yet since I don't have this capital allocation...yet. Which leads me to the only advise I can really give anyone as far as trading goes. Backtest and come to your own conclusions.
Ok fair enough, so you are testing such a strategy to see if it works. Presumably if you're testing such a system, you are not a profitable trader at the moment. Can I ask how long have you been trading and how much profit have you made in total?
 

Xylitol

Junior member
35 6
And you know all this from the basis of having no real knowledge or experience of trading then? Just your fixed opinion is it?

Investment banks and hedge funds market activity have about as much in common with retail trading as a trawler has with an angler on the cliff edge. Read Gamma Jammer's articles about life as a spot forex trader if you want some idea of the difference. Here's the first one http://www.trade2win.com/articles/752-day-life-forex-spot-desk-trader-part-1-a
Actually these guys at investment banks and hedge funds are the ones who profit from the day traders who fail and lose all their money. In other words, they take the money from people on this forum, among others. So yes, there is a relationship between the two. You'd be a fool to think otherwise.

Anyway, may I ask how long have you been trading and how much are you in profit?
 

Xylitol

Junior member
35 6
Here is something to learn ,that you are suffering from inattention blindness of some of the good information here .

Inattentional blindness, also known as perceptual blindness, is a psychological lack of attention that is not associated with any vision defects or deficits. It may be further defined as the event in which an individual fails to perceive an unexpected stimulus that is in plain sight.
Ok, could you tell me what good information you have read and specifically how much has it helped you profit. I take it you make a profit from trading?
 

Xylitol

Junior member
35 6
You may not believe ,that I know what I am talking about.If you read some of the psychology threads and what I have written , it will give you an idea of "me".What I have given , you will not find in any books , I gave it because I don't need it , even though it may cost a fortune .It is the road map to the gold with the psychological handicaps.I have found my own road map /strategy (free of psychological handicaps) , which I give you hints about , but I never declared this strategy here .

There is good information on this forum and there is information of posters , many are just opinions of learners and amateurs.

Forums are places , where you can be given good doubts about your own vision.It may help you see a different perspective and a different view.
You can have the best psychology, mental skills, discipline and money management in the world. But if you don't have a winning strategy, you will lose all your money. That is the reason why traders fail.

People actually need a winning strategy first, before they even think about all this other stuff. Do you think good money management will turn a losing strategy into a winning one? No of course it won't. Do you think a guy with good discipline can make money from a losing system? Of course he can't.

Anyway, I think I've already asked, but I'll ask again. How long have you been trading and how much profit have you made?
 

Xylitol

Junior member
35 6
Firstly there is a genuine sense of comradeship amongst traders. We've all struggled at some time or other, usually when first starting out but things go wrong at other times too and its really helpful to have other views of possible improvements or solutions.

Secondly you can regard it as not totally free anyway. I have profitable approaches to trading but I visit this forum to dig up challenges to my own strategies and ways of thinking. Sometimes I provoke challenges to see if my systems fall apart under independent scrutiny. This will make them stronger, meaning more profit for me, so a few posts of advice in return about what I do and how I do it is only fair payment in recompense.

Thirdly even if I disclose every single minute detail of how I trade, it has no impact on how the markets behave, so there is no negative impact on my trading. From that point of view, disclosure is free to me.
What do you mean by "profitable" approaches? If you have profitable approaches, presumably you're staking with the maximum amount of money possible, and you're already a millionaire from such profitable strategies?

If you have profitable approaches, I'd like to ask how much money you have made from these approaches already.
 

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