"The best leading indicator ever"

[Lord Flasheart]

Ive just received an email inviting me to larry Pesaventos seminar in London for a cost of £250. I have no intention of going but wondered about his claim of "the best leading indicator ever" Does anyone know what this is or indeed what do people think is the best leading indicator. Personally I use $tick which when a trend breaks can be a fantastic indicator and will get you in right at the very start. However its strike rate is 50% at best, but still good with good management. Im looking forward to hearing peoples opinions.

 

[FetteredChinos]

time..and cycles, is the only potential leading indicator, and i know that Pesavento is a big fan of time cycles..

oh, and perhaps the committment of traders report issued by CBOT.. the commercial institutions have been net short for some time on the Dow for example.

i know that Tom Hougaard rates Mr P rather highly.

fc

 

[Chicken Curry]

There's a big article on Larry Pesavento in the April edition of Traders magazine.

Well worth a read.

Haven't read it in any great depth yet but he does say that he works predominantly with chart patterns rather than indicators. He calls himself a 99.9% chart pattern trader and goes on to say that he doesn't make much use of indicators because the pattern recognition techniques are leading rather than lagging.

So I guess he has a surprise in store for his audience - definitely something not obvious.

It would be disappointing if it was obvious.

 

[Chicken Curry]

I personally think that the best leading indicator is the bell that rings when my profit target has been reached and I am exited out of the trade.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

CC are you saying that LP will reveal something that is new and worth £250 to see

 

[Bigbusiness]

Is it true that Larry Pesavento went bankrupt in 1997? The only information I can find about this is here http://www.purebytes.com/archives/metastock/2004/msg04166.html

For what it is worth; and realizing that many new traders
seek "mentors" who promise "do what I do and you will be
successful...", I offer the following information passed on to me
from a trader friend:

Freedom of Information Act: Larry W Pesavento - filed for Chapter 7
Bankruptcy protection on May 5, 1997 in Central District Court of
California in Santa Barbara. Total Personal Assets listed in the
filing were $19,526, Total Liabilities were $483,949. Attorney of
fact: David Y. Farmer, San Luis Obisbo, CA.

Contract with tutors at your own risk.

Source: https://www.knowx.com/userinfo.exe?form=userinfo/suserinfo.htm

 

[garethb]

I attended a joint seminar by Alan Farley and Larry Pesavento last May. I was an Alan Farley fan before going but had little knowledge of Larry P. Larry's methods are a mixture of Fib based patterns (a couple of which, Gartley and Butterfly are mentioned but not really explained in Alans recent article in the Knowledge Lab), a neural net based predictor of time of reversals, with a bit of astrology thrown in. He seems to use Fib for position/swing trades and the neural net more for intra day. He didn't major on the astrology in his presentations as I think he realises that most people would dismiss it as b*****ks.

He is undoubtedly a very successful trader and I witnessed him trading with real money for two days. He must have three or four decades experience starting in the chicago pits and much of his success I suspect comes down to this experience rather than the specific techniques.

He is an extrovert personality and an amusing speaker but I personally did not find that his presentations clearly communicated his methods.

If the indicator he will explain is the neural net then there will not be enough info for you to reproduce it in your own software but it is commercially available as part of the ensign software package (which also has very good tools for Fib based patterns)

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips48.htm#Pesavento


Regards,

Gareth

 

[garethb]

BigBusiness

Clearly if Larry went bankrupt then it makes a bit of a mockery of my "clearly a very successful trader". Perhaps - "I saw him trade very successfully for two days and I know he is entrusted with a large account by a hedge fund" is closer to my actual knowledge. He does admit to having lost a large amount of money a couple of times in his career and sums it up as similar to his various divorces.

There do seem to be those who regard losing your shirt at least once as a necessary part of the learning process to be a trader - not a view I subscribe to.

Regards,

Gareth

 

[Bigbusiness]

I looked at his neural net predictor in Ensign last year but didn't find it of any use. His book "Fibonacci Ratios With Pattern Recognition" is worth a read but I don't understand how he went bankrupt if he was having success trading. Perhaps it is a different Larry Pesavento

 

[Lord Flasheart]

It annoys me that such a so called legend is using a salesmans hook to get people to attend his seminar.
How many people are thinking Ill pay the £250 to see what this new amazing leading indicator is. Sounds like someone else trying to sell the Holy grail to me.When we start trading we all fall for this sort of thing. Most of the traders I speak to have learnt very little from any so called mentor but do not realise it at first and leave the course on a high beleiving that on Monday they start their journey to riches

 

[Chicken Curry]

It annoys me that such a so called legend is using a salesmans hook to get people to attend his seminar.
How many people are thinking Ill pay the £250 to see what this new amazing leading indicator is. Sounds like someone else trying to sell the Holy grail to me.When we start trading we all fall for this sort of thing. Most of the traders I speak to have learnt very little from any so called mentor but do not realise it at first and leave the course on a high beleiving that on Monday they start their journey to riches

Totally agree Julian.

I think he will come up with some weird thing on chart patterns and convince the audience that it is a leading indicator.

Agree about the mentor thing too. I have been down that road, came out on a high and crashed back to earth when I realised that round-the-world first class travel etc etc was not actually just around the corner.

 

[counter_violent]

Slightly off topic but...

It's widely known amongst the enlightened that a great number of the worlds high flyers and successful business types have got there because they have had the fortune or misfortune to encounter bankruptcy.....the education received by going through it is unique. The majority will never see this advantage and as a consequence, will never make it to the higher level.

If this were compared to trading for example, it would be seen as an edge to be taken full advantage of.......knowledge that the majority simply cannot know.

C V

 

[chump]

and for everyone of them that did succeed in bouncing back there are many more 'entombed' in countless financial graveyards of those that did not survive to try another day ,because they were not able to learn b..u..gger all from the experience other than ...he who skis under an avalanche will not always live to ski another day !
However , anyone who wishes to start out learning to lose big in the hope that they will then proceed to join the rich and the famous , please please give me the first refusal on being the first person in line on whom you wish to bestow your largesse

 

[Chicken Curry]

Second that Chump.

 

[Kunal]

It's widely known amongst the enlightened that a great number of the worlds high flyers and successful business types have got there because they have had the fortune or misfortune to encounter bankruptcy.....the education received by going through it is unique. The majority will never see this advantage and as a consequence, will never make it to the higher level.
C V

Good one, and true in many aspects of life.
Some of the greatest opportunities are to be found in overcoming adversity.

EDIT:
Extreme pain changes people the fastest.

 

[ZDO]

Sad truth -
Pay £250 and come away with about £25 worth of information...

LP's methods are great in certain types of swinging markets and 'complex' corrections.
In important market action (like trends, for instance ) they are worthless.

hth

zdo

 

[jcwonder8]

Sad truth -
Pay £250 and come away with about £25 worth of information...

LP's methods are great in certain types of swinging markets and 'complex' corrections.
In important market action (like trends, for instance ) they are worthless.

hth

zdo

I'd agree with this from what I have seen, he also believes in very wide stops on daytrading index futures so its a risky strategy to daytrade imo. I am no great trader yet but I do think that if really do know what you're doing you will be working with pretty tight stops - mrmarcus, socrates etc. He seems to work with complex patterns (gartley, butterfly etc etc) and some kind of time analysis - eg it is time for a turning point - without volume or any kind of momentum or trend analysis, predictive rather than reactive - learning his patterns and combining it with your own studies might be useful I suppose. You can join his internet trading room for 49 bucks a month I think so you could probably see if you liked the style for cheaper there.

 

[nkruger]

Slightly off topic but...

It's widely known amongst the enlightened that a great number of the worlds high flyers and successful business types have got there because they have had the fortune or misfortune to encounter bankruptcy.....the education received by going through it is unique. The majority will never see this advantage and as a consequence, will never make it to the higher level.

If this were compared to trading for example, it would be seen as an edge to be taken full advantage of.......knowledge that the majority simply cannot know.

C V

I wholeheartedly agree CV - from personal experience. I am a much better person as a result and a much better trader - I have no fear of loss. Loss is always going to be a result of 'having a go' Just make sure you have more winners than losers !!

 

[bnaimy]

That guys who is chargig 250 is not showing u anything new, its just how you use different timeframes to your advantage, its very basic and simple really, i am amazed why most traders dont use it.If u look at chart there will emerge a pattern that is easy to see.

If u want to trade a 3min chart or 10min for that matter, u NEED to have short timeframes then then chart u want to take ur trades on to give u a headsup that the move is coming, otherthen that there is NO indicator on 1 single timeframe that can give u the move in advance.


With regards
Bashir Naimy