Best Thread Arabian's *serious* Thread

forecasts? what's there to forecast?

I'll try to write something up again, I really will... I'm just an ideas guy, you know... actually carrying on with the effort of this thread is a different thing... :LOL:
 
if nobody minds i will try and explain what this means a bit more because if you didnt know about stirs and implieds it might not make any sense. Its also good for me to check that i am understanding you right (y)

So, what arabian means by "it was already a bit low for other contracts"... STIRS are interest rate futures on 3 month LIBOR. One thing about this market is that, for example, you wanted to find out how much it would cost to borrow 500k (the notional of the contract) for 1 year starting from January 2012, you just use the four 3 month rates in a row (so you would do Jan -> March, March -> June, June -> Sept and Sept -> Dec).

when you plot the prices for all of the contracts on a graph, that is what is called the yield curve, and represents the different cost of borrowing for different lengths of time. If you watch the pic I did, what he means is that the SEPT '12 future was a bit low compared to the other contracts either side of it (the blue dot).


Right, another thing - when he says "the bid was implied". In STIRS you cn not just trade the futures on their own, but you can as well trade more than one future in the same trade. So, the simplest example is a calendar spread, which is like LONG March SHORT June. there types of trade are for trading non-parrales shifts in the yield curve (like one goes up or down more than the other).

What is special about these is that the you can make an order for the whole spread, you dont have to make orders for both futures (this is called legging in and legging out) If, say, the March - June spread was at 7, i could place a order on exchange to buy it at 5, and the exchange would automatically jiggle two orders in the individual futures so that i was always ordering a difference of 5. when this happens, the orders show up on the individual futures as well as for the orderbook on the spread. The orders I have put on the individual futures are called "implied", because they are implied from what i am ordering the spread for.

So, in this case because the future is out of line with the other ones, there will probably be lots of traders either trying to trade the calendar spread (or a butterfly, two spread in a row) so try and make profits from when it goes back into line. there orders for spreads would show up in the individual SEP orderbook, but these are implied from the orders actually wanting to trade the spreads. Like here there could be lots of orders wanting to do "Sell 1 x June, but 2 x Sep, sell 1 x Dec" for a butterfly that will bake profits if the blue dot gets back into line with the red ones - these are the implieds on the bid.

there is also implied in and implied out and even implieds on implieds but thats a but tricky. hope that I understood it right arabian and it helps anyone who doesnt know stirs.

sounds like you have been reading a book on trading STIRS futures. ;)
 
bumpety, bumptey, bumpety, bumpety bump. Give us another example trade Mr Arabian. Aikin says on his own forum that it is getting harder and harder to beat the bots and there is no low hanging fruit nowadays. Do you agree with him on that?
 
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