Arabian's bookmaking challenge

[arabianights]

I'm going to try to make a book in a random event (Plymouth v Notts Co on Tuesday night) using nothing but market dynamics.

I've never done anything like this before - I have successfully sports traded and do betting arbitrage, but this (bookmaking) is something completely new to me.

So... let's see how this goes.

I'm currently ready to lay two english pounds at 2.12/3.45/3.55 respectively on Plymouth/Notts/Draw (overround of 4.3%). I am going to see what I get matched on and start taking it from there. I have absolutely no idea what the correct odds are in this event either; I just dimed what was already in the book.

This is quite likely to go tits up, but if so c'est la vie...

 

[bangkoker]

I'm going to try to make a book in a random event (Plymouth v Notts Co on Tuesday night) using nothing but market dynamics.

I've never done anything like this before - I have successfully sports traded and do betting arbitrage, but this (bookmaking) is something completely new to me.

So... let's see how this goes.

I'm currently ready to lay two english pounds at 2.12/3.45/3.55 respectively on Plymouth/Notts/Draw (overround of 4.3%). I am going to see what I get matched on and start taking it from there. I have absolutely no idea what the correct odds are in this event either; I just dimed what was already in the book.

This is quite likely to go tits up, but if so c'est la vie...

Sounds interesting. Betangel have some good software for that kind of thing which you may have already seen. Good luck

 

[arabianights]

Cheers (I reckon The Geek's Toy is even better than betangel tho')

However for the moment I'm just sticking em in the book using the website; be surprised if anything really happens in the next 12 hours - £4 so far traded on the entire market, although someone has dimed me on the Plymouth lay.

The basic strategy I'm planning to use is to feed very small sums in to help the market find a level, then once it has apparently stabilised start increasing these, while being alert that it may move again on a large trade, or event... how that sound?

 

[charliechan]

I'm currently ready to lay two english pounds at 2.12/3.45/3.55 respectively on Plymouth/Notts/Draw (overround of 4.3%). I am going to see what I get matched on and start taking it from there. I have absolutely no idea what the correct odds are in this event either; I just dimed what was already in the book.

This is quite likely to go tits up, but if so c'est la vie...

surely, as a starting point, if i have understood what you are trying to do (be a book maker), your odds should be roughly equal because you have little idea which side you will be hit on first which will cause you to alter your odds accordingly.

if you had a strong reason to believe everyone favouring notts before opening shop, you would lower odds(your exposure) on notts? have i got it badly wrong here?

 

[wackypete2]

Sounds like fun as long as you don't lose your shirt!

Good Luck

Peter

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Cheers (I reckon The Geek's Toy is even better than betangel tho')

However for the moment I'm just sticking em in the book using the website; be surprised if anything really happens in the next 12 hours - £4 so far traded on the entire market, although someone has dimed me on the Plymouth lay.

The basic strategy I'm planning to use is to feed very small sums in to help the market find a level, then once it has apparently stabilised start increasing these, while being alert that it may move again on a large trade, or event... how that sound?

not good,sooner or later, huge punters or bookies will join in and lay very large volumes(20k at a time) at prices slightly better than the bookies rendering your system and bets of little use.

 

[arabianights]

surely, as a starting point, if i have understood what you are trying to do (be a book maker), your odds should be roughly equal because you have little idea which side you will be hit on first which will cause you to alter your odds accordingly.

if you had a strong reason to believe everyone favouring notts before opening shop, you would lower odds(your exposure) on notts? have i got it badly wrong here?

That's what I would have done if the market had been completely blank, but I had to work within the orders there.

 

[arabianights]

Sounds like fun as long as you don't lose your shirt!

Good Luck

Peter

I would say I couldn't lose my shirt laying a couple of quid at a time... but then my shirt only cost a couple of quid

 

[arabianights]

not good,sooner or later, huge punters or bookies will join in and lay very large volumes(20k at a time) at prices slightly better than the bookies rendering your system and bets of little use.

This well happen eventually, what I'm hoping is that I can get a decent number of bets done before it does get that tight. If that doesn't work I'll try with more obscure markets.

All trial and error after all

 

[redart]

start a new thead to teach me how to do sports arbitage betting aswell.

 

[arabianights]

There's not really anything to teach... just find a set of bets that will lead to guaranteed profit with all possible outcomes of an event (making sure you check rules etc carefully).

This can be as simple as backing a horse at 7-1 and laying at 6-1 on betfair. Not 100% guaranteed for a couple of reasons (rule 4, dodgy bookmakers being main two) but as near as dammit.

 

[arabianights]

And to make things even more exciting:

I've also decided I'm going to bookmake 2010 British Carp Angling Championships.

Same principle - I've started by diming everything there, except in one case where I would have been getting filled straight away.

You can see that market @ http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=101116505&ex=1&origin=MRL

I know absolutely nothing at all about that.

I reserve the right to change my mind about this one...

 

[arabianights]

I've pulled out of the angling thing as I don't understand what happens if anglers pull out (or if they can... or even how you can have a fishing competition) and I could be laying an underround for all I know.

 

[arabianights]

Looks like you were right my good Lord, it's a 0.5% overround now and I ain't done a single pound.

Going to try this strategy with something else later today, preciesly what tbc...

 

[be-positive]

looks like the lord has some hidden talents ----- are you out of bed yet jules ???

 

[arabianights]

Ok redart, here's an example of an arb.

Skybet I can bet at 10.0 on Trans Sonic in the 16.30 at Southwell. Meanwhile I can lay on betfair at 9.4 - albeit not the full £25 I intend to put on on the former. But I can work it

So I've stuck £25 on at 10.0

Immediately take the £9.11 at 9.4

I need to work another £17.62 at my discount rate... this will guarantee me 47p profit... just working the order at the moment. Crucially, I know that the skybet price is an anomaly in the market, I also can see a decent order at 9.6 that I can lean on if I need to.

And once I'm filled on that I'll be trying to bookmake a random horsey thing. £11.11 filled so far as I post this...

 

[arabianights]

(Note: Horse odds can move viciously, especially close to the off - be careful!)

And only 62 pence to go...

 

[arabianights]

Annnnnnyway....

3:30 soutwell. This is gonna be where I start out. I've chosen it because it's only got 6 runners.

Same strategy. Going to start by joining all the bids.

Want to reiterate I know nothing about horses (other than Mr. Hands).

 

[arabianights]

11:30am update:

So far, laid La Caprioza @ 3.7, Boogie Waltzer @ 4.4, Star Twilight @ 6.2.

All, naturally, £2

 

[arabianights]

Noon update... starting to get some bets on now.