Anyone still uses James16 Price Action?

[Forexmospherian]

mmm, the rationale of a pin-bar is that there has been a strong rejection of a low (high) point with some momentum behind it. It is assumed that momentum will carry on. If it starts going wrong once you are in then that momentum has been lost and the the rationale for the trade has disappeared. To wait looking for a turnaround before your stop below (above) the tail is hit now relies on hope.

I think you always need more than one clue for opposite moves - pin bars in isolation not enough - but they can be a clue

Add in interim supports or resistance areas - then time - as pin bar lasted over 30 mins with no new breach of high or low then add in PA of HH's and HL's on 1 min charts - or opposites - and then correlations etc - yes with a group of clues all agreeing - no problem

On my own set up I dont really use candle stick patterns etc - but they count as clues and if I have over 4 or 5 clues all agreeing - then bingo - time to enter new trades


Regards

F

 

[counter_violent]

I think you always need more than one clue for opposite moves - pin bars in isolation not enough - but they can be a clue

Add in interim supports or resistance areas - then time - as pin bar lasted over 30 mins with no new breach of high or low then add in PA of HH's and HL's on 1 min charts - or opposites - and then correlations etc - yes with a group of clues all agreeing - no problem

On my own set up I dont really use candle stick patterns etc - but they count as clues and if I have over 4 or 5 clues all agreeing - then bingo - time to enter new trades


Regards

F

Forexmospherian


18,000 Posts


Joined Oct 2013

Well 18,000 posts....good job we scrapped the legendary member status.

 

[tar]

So sometimes pin bars do work , and sometimes they dont !

And ?

 

[tar]

toastie

As a matter of interest here are the pin-bars on RBS for the last couple of months. I picked RBS because it's on my watch list for entry on Monday.

The whites all triggered and had potential; the yellows didn't trigger; the bluey was the only loser; the pinkie might well have been a loser unless you were sharp; and the open white remains to be seen.

I don't believe you, toastie, couldn't have come out on top with that lot - I didn't trade them, of course

ps: missed the first one or two - the chart shifted in the copying!!

Cherry picking ... thats a very tiny sample , there are billions of pin bars out there ....

 

[tar]

No. Utter rubbish. But don't start telling the truth now and change the habit of a life time ;-)

Kudos to him for flushing you out ...

Welcome back ...

 

[Forexmospherian]

Forexmospherian


18,000 Posts


Joined Oct 2013

Well 18,000 posts....good job we scrapped the legendary member status.

Thanks for pointing it out -

Good job I could not call all my scalps - ie 3 posts for every one - ie entry - update - close - I would have been over 20 k posts by now lol - with 15k + just on trading calls - shame

Regards

F

 

[barjon]

Cherry picking ... thats a very tiny sample , there are billions of pin bars out there ....

As I said, just happened to be looking at the chart since it was on my list for entry today. I'm triggered and in, too

 

[counter_violent]

ewwerr mrs

will it or won't it......7 mins to go !!!!

 

[Fugazsy]

They do work very well. Easy? No

I use them on the 1m tf in a strong trend but in the opposite direction of the pin bar: lets say we have a strong bearish trend, counter trader step in (bulls) and form a bullish pin bar, I place a sell stop order 1 pip below the pinbar candle with a SL 1 pip above it (bulls trap), which is normally a small risk, about a few pips.
If not triggered in the next bar, I pull out. TP normally double of risk but pa need to be considered. TP is normally reached in the next 5m, max 15.

Do they work all the time? No way, but risking 1 for 2 with 50% probability makes a decent approach. It is important to be patient (defence), nimble (attack) and neutral (sideline).

 

[Fugazsy]

Neil - first - stop being a dick about the vending thing. If you feel I am trying to sell something in these posts - report the posts.

If you cannot argue your point, consider the merits of silent introspection as apposed to taking sideswipes about things that are not relevant to the discussion.

Where the market has been is relevant. Charts show this very well, although I think volume profiles on charts add a dimension of extra information about who may still be positioned at certain prices and where stops may exist.

Most candlestick analysis is flawed. That's because the markets move organically, not in time spliced increments. Reading so much into OHLC is flawed because a quick change of timeframe tells you a completely different story for the same action in the same market.

We seem to have discussions based on the premise that all things work until proven otherwise. The argument "to each his own" basically means we should forgo discussions and not back up our points.

Why WOULD pin bars on a certain timeframe chart be any better an indicator of a reversal than another reversal that didn't have OHLC aligned such that a tail was formed? Same thing happened at the end of the day....

Here is a current 4 hour chart of Crude Jan 15 on NYMEX.

Then we change the timeframe and the pin bar disappears

Then we do the same again and the bottom reversal suddenly turns into a pin bar

And this was the first chart I looked at.

How can the open/close/high/low of a candle really tell you anything when a simple change in timeframe changes the picture entirely? Of course, it doesn't

What the chart does tell you - where it's been & where the major turns were.

You can make a science of it if you want but to be honest but looking at a chart from my perspective is a hell of a lot simpler.

And the funny thing is - you bring the whole "vendor" thing into the argument when this candlestick thing is one of the greatest pieces of retail trading vendor BS in existence.

your pin bars showed in you pics are not relevant to the discussion, a pin bar printed in a range trading environment has not a potential of reversal or as a false reversal or as a failed false reversal, it only confirms the range, the one you pointed as non pin bar are pin bar in a bigger TF......Price action is an art not a science....

 

[tar]

Do they work all the time? No way, but risking 1 for 2 with 50% probability makes a decent approach.

How many pin bars did you study to come to that conclusion ?

 

[neil]

How many pin bars did you study to come to that conclusion ?

Eleventhousandthreehundredandfortytwo -give or take a couple.

 

[DionysusToast]

your pin bars showed in you pics are not relevant to the discussion, a pin bar printed in a range trading environment has not a potential of reversal or as a false reversal or as a failed false reversal, it only confirms the range, the one you pointed as non pin bar are pin bar in a bigger TF......Price action is an art not a science....

So you are saying the same effect of changing time frames would not change the composition of pin bars in different places?

 

[DionysusToast]

mmm, the rationale of a pin-bar is that there has been a strong rejection of a low (high) point with some momentum behind it. It is assumed that momentum will carry on. If it starts going wrong once you are in then that momentum has been lost and the the rationale for the trade has disappeared. To wait looking for a turnaround before your stop below (above) the tail is hit now relies on hope.

This is a conundrum for any trader....

smart people' say "don't put your stops where everyone else's are"

but moving them arbitrarily from that point isn't really any smarter

momentum is also tough because the fastest moves are often the weakest...

 

[forker]

There is certainly merit to these bars on the basis of price printing sufficient distance from the end of the tail. The problem is this distance generally generates a risk profile that is not optimal in the general sense of a herd. In other words, placing your stop on the other side of the tail is regarded as the sensible place, but in reality, the boat has passed and the trader is assuming a continuation of momentum. From my standpoint, If I am not already in the trade, would wait for price to print a definitive change in momentum and not just a moment in time. There is more often than not more opportunities in the near future that will present a better risk profile and sufficient profit targets to catch a move. I often take trades where these bars print but I am either in before they print or some time afterwards.

I am not dissing anyone that trades these, just hopefully opening a platform for debate on the general methodology around them. An example of which is rather placing a stop the other side of previous bars close levels to reduce the risk profile. If the trade is wrong you are not going to be any better off by having it after the tail. Also, and hopefully understood as nothing more than a occurrence that can't always be dodged are shake outs. move on a forward.

 

[Jason101]

So if a market went aggresively south one day and then the next day it we t aggresively North all day, that would not be as good an opportunity as one that reversed at lunchtime? The latter forming a pin bar and the former not...

Any particular reason for that?

You are correct, the direction and momentum would be. But the trade would not, due to the increase in risk to reward for an end of day trader.

 

[DionysusToast]

There is certainly merit to these bars on the basis of price printing sufficient distance from the end of the tail. The problem is this distance generally generates a risk profile that is not optimal in the general sense of a herd. In other words, placing your stop on the other side of the tail is regarded as the sensible place, but in reality, the boat has passed and the trader is assuming a continuation of momentum. From my standpoint, If I am not already in the trade, would wait for price to print a definitive change in momentum and not just a moment in time. There is more often than not more opportunities in the near future that will present a better risk profile and sufficient profit targets to catch a move. I often take trades where these bars print but I am either in before they print or some time afterwards.

I am not dissing anyone that trades these, just hopefully opening a platform for debate on the general methodology around them. An example of which is rather placing a stop the other side of previous bars close levels to reduce the risk profile. If the trade is wrong you are not going to be any better off by having it after the tail. Also, and hopefully understood as nothing more than a occurrence that can't always be dodged are shake outs. move on a forward.

I disagree with "the boat has passed"

Everyone wants to pick tops & bottom. Reality is this "permafader" mentality is what drains people's accounts.

We've all done it - watching the market go down, looking for a long, down some more, waiting for the long, still going down, still looking for a long....

I think you are much better off not attempting to pick tops & bottoms unless the market is in a relatively tight range. You are much better off waiting for a confirmed reversal and then stalking smaller trades in the new direction.

Situational awareness of volume/volatility is needed obviously as trading consolidation areas requires you to do the opposite to trading larger swings.

 

[forker]

I disagree with "the boat has passed"

Everyone wants to pick tops & bottom. Reality is this "permafader" mentality is what drains people's accounts.

We've all done it - watching the market go down, looking for a long, down some more, waiting for the long, still going down, still looking for a long....

I think you are much better off not attempting to pick tops & bottoms unless the market is in a relatively tight range. You are much better off waiting for a confirmed reversal and then stalking smaller trades in the new direction.

Situational awareness of volume/volatility is needed obviously as trading consolidation areas requires you to do the opposite to trading larger swings.

i think you have misunderstood.

When i said the boat had been missed it was in context to the pinbar and entering at that time. I did infact say that i am in afterwards also in case you missed that.
That being said i feel compelled to respond to this general understanding that picking tops and bottoms is a fools game. If you are trying to do this where price is printing a new high or low then yes it certainly is nothing more than a guess. Outside of this, picking highs and lows is as profitable as getting into a trend. Here is a weekly EURUSD chart from 2003 to present. Look at it range......
picking highs and lows is only a fools game to those that dont know how to do it, period.

 

[IzaIza]

Lets not kid ourselves, no one can pick tops and bottoms. You can get lucky that the market decided to follow the trend and react on support/resist. None of that is real, all of it is purely coincidence. The only true statement I trade by is to follow the trend.

I do not mean to sound like the idea of support/resist and tops and bottoms do not exist, I do not fully reject the idea of support/resist and tops and bottoms. I just do not support trading "it" as the market can do anything at any given time.

This mentality has served me well. How about you?

 

[forker]

Lets not kid ourselves, no one can pick tops and bottoms. You can get lucky that the market decided to follow the trend and react on support/resist. None of that is real, all of it is purely coincidence. The only true statement I trade by is to follow the trend.

I do not mean to sound like the idea of support/resist and tops and bottoms do not exist, I do not fully reject the idea of support/resist and tops and bottoms. I just do not support trading "it" as the market can do anything at any given time.

This mentality has served me well. How about you?

i wasn't kidding.