Anyone expecting the EUR to dip aggressively this week?

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
I'm unsure but figure people here should be speculating on both sides of this coin.

Looking at the charts it looks like the EUR has a long way down to go before this quarter is over.
 

p-lab

Active member
189 12
Yes - Any levy out of Cyprus is so bearish on EU or EUR on any cross in fact. Could Be USD and GBP leading the party in the longer term. I am horrified at this potential cash raid that is about to happen in the Beautiful country that is Cyprus. The focus seems to be on private clients but surely the real issue are the business clients - Bang there's 20% off your working capital for the week
 

BigBootyBabe

Newbie
0 10
Yes - Any levy out of Cyprus is so bearish on EU or EUR on any cross in fact. Could Be USD and GBP leading the party in the longer term. I am horrified at this potential cash raid that is about to happen in the Beautiful country that is Cyprus. The focus seems to be on private clients but surely the real issue are the business clients - Bang there's 20% off your working capital for the week


Only an idiot fool would sell euro still.
You missed the boat when it was at 1.36/37, so dont chase now that its at 1.29!! :whistling

Instead sell AUD/CHF at around the 0.9886 level. :cool:

Aud will follow euro, and in panic money will flood out of aussie and into swiss franc,
however look at chart of aud/chf and you will see that it still has a huge downside potential compared to the euro (which has already crashed huge amount).
 

betman

Junior member
33 0
Wouldnt a decision from Cyprus this weekend be positive for the eur? At open I would expect the eur to climb if Cyprus reach a decision today..
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
9,794 975
Wouldnt a decision from Cyprus this weekend be positive for the eur? At open I would expect the eur to climb if Cyprus reach a decision today..

will probably gap open a touch,then anything can happen
 

betman

Junior member
33 0
Ok.. I went a bit risky and put on a position before close on Friday thinking that a decision will be made over weekend.. I will have to watch it carefully
 

Pferd

Active member
132 16
Could be many scenarios, ie: Cyprus leaves the EURO (bullish long term for the EUR in my point of view, after an initial quick negative reaction though). But also could happen that the ECB has to do a unlimited LTRO to stop contagion. This will be bearish for the EUR long term.

In my point of view too risky to take positions in EUR in the next days. Anything can happen. More than risky I would say cloudy, as it is impossible to see clearly what the future holds.

The most I would risk is positions with options in both directions. But this is more a gamble than a strategy, so it really needs to be almost no risk with a huge reward potential.

But if we behave like sensible people we should just wait a couple of days to see what is the outcome. If it is a movement down it will be violent so there is no problem to miss the first part and enter in a retracement. If it is a movement up I believe it will be sustained in time, so again there will be a chance to enter at some stage.

Otherwise we better dedicate to gambling. There are so many variables which make this situation impossible to predict.
 

spreader_legger

Well-known member
447 38
Could be many scenarios, ie: Cyprus leaves the EURO (bullish long term for the EUR in my point of view, after an initial quick negative reaction though). But also could happen that the ECB has to do a unlimited LTRO to stop contagion. This will be bearish for the EUR long term.

In my point of view too risky to take positions in EUR in the next days. Anything can happen. More than risky I would say cloudy, as it is impossible to see clearly what the future holds.

The most I would risk is positions with options in both directions. But this is more a gamble than a strategy, so it really needs to be almost no risk with a huge reward potential.

But if we behave like sensible people we should just wait a couple of days to see what is the outcome. If it is a movement down it will be violent so there is no problem to miss the first part and enter in a retracement. If it is a movement up I believe it will be sustained in time, so again there will be a chance to enter at some stage.

Otherwise we better dedicate to gambling. There are so many variables which make this situation impossible to predict.


This is my prediction. Cyprus stays within the EU. A deal is passed & EUR gaps up but then recedes after the initial euphoria.


Unfortunately all bets have now been placed and the wheel spun
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Only an idiot fool would sell euro still.
You missed the boat when it was at 1.36/37, so dont chase now that its at 1.29!! :whistling

Instead sell AUD/CHF at around the 0.9886 level. :cool:

Aud will follow euro, and in panic money will flood out of aussie and into swiss franc,
however look at chart of aud/chf and you will see that it still has a huge downside potential compared to the euro (which has already crashed huge amount).

I'll be keeping my eye on the AUD / CHF but you really think the EUR doesn't have a lot more downside from here? This quarter I speculate the EUR could have a downside of 500+ more pips on average this quarter. GBP, CHF, USD and JPY would be good pairs to short the EUR with. I think you may have the AUD confused with the EUR, we haven't hit bottom yet it only just started on its' way down. The AUD has illustrated nothing but strength, there has been no definite signal of a reversal as of now so you might be wayyyyyy ahead of the curve. IMO of course; but I think many deep pocketed forex traders will see last week as just a confirmation of the Euros' downtrend.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
This is my prediction. Cyprus stays within the EU. A deal is passed & EUR gaps up but then recedes after the initial euphoria.


Unfortunately all bets have now been placed and the wheel spun

Cyprus will be a major drag on the Eurosystem in any case, money that would be piling in the EUR will flock elsewhere which leaves a lot of downside open on the EUR. Not to mention if the EUR wants to pick up its' export market it will have to become either more competitive, or simply devalue their currency. I would bet on the latter more confidently than the former.

There are a lot of incentives to dropping the value of the EUR, huge money to be made on the downside, etc. I would bet the EUR hasn't hit rock bottom for the quarter quite yet, as a matter of fact I think it has a downside of up to 20 % for this year! :eek:
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
9,794 975
what are the odds of it gaping up to fill the gap it made last week. Youd think it unlikely as no deal done,but who knows its only 60 pips away
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
what are the odds of it gaping up to fill the gap it made last week. Youd think it unlikely as no deal done,but who knows its only 60 pips away

Right on it wouldn't be very surprising if the EUR touched the price it was at before the big gap. I figure that would be a hot spot for shorts to re-load at.
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock