Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

shadowninja

Well-known member
Jul 22, 2007
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#33
When I was first dabbling with Betfair, someone gave me some stern advice: trade, don't bet. To this date, I've never consistently made money betting (it may start off well but without any other knowledge and just doing it mechanically, things reverse and I end up back at square one - I've not taken wild punts but bets based on market observations; to date, after many, many ideas, I've never truly experienced success from betting).

My trading OTOH? Well, Betfair is a money tree.
 

rsh01

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2010
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#34
theres loads of football betting strategies, all for free, all the stats are available, you just have to do a little bit of work (including a quick google seach) to pick & choose the market/match.

in play:
~back the 0-0 pre KO & lay after 15mins (time of 1st goal scored average is ~26mins in prem league)
~if theres only 1 goal in it, lay match odds (H, D, A) @1.1 or less & can green up @ corners (if good entry timing)
~ back pre match fave when go goal down (in 1st half) & green up when (if) they equalise
~ back fave @ <=1.3 pre match (or after 20mins when goalless) and green up after 1st goal

long term:
~teams who did well last season, or had a lot of low score draws, yet have had bad start to this season back them after 9-10 matches to move up table.

all of these can be hedged, i will hedge say backing the 0-0 after 5 mins of play with a correct score eg 1-1 (if the underdog scores first then this will shorten) or 2-0 if fave scores first. once you have a hedge on then even if theres a goal pre 15mins (time to green up) then you can trade out of it for profit. and most of the strats are palying probabailities, so you will need to do these week in/week out. not just once.

working out 'value' in the odds is a difficult thing to do, and which was my normal way of betting, however i have put quite a few value bets on recently which have just missed for 0 return, so i have decided to get back into the back & lay method (close out).

there have been so many times when league leaders at home, with unbeaten record, play chumps at foot of table and odds are approaching 20/1 for an away win. its a 2 horse race and that appears too long to me - anything can happen, yet they often have season long unbeaten @ home records, and rarely go a goal down. yet reading a long time ago about guys who will back odds on no matter what also made me consider the 'back a cert' method, harry findlay famous for odds on backs....he was backing federer every match @1.1 whilst i was laying him (his backs were for millions, mine for pocket money).....throughout the year Fed was at his peak and lost only a few matches. when someones on fire, even when they play crap, the opponents are beat before they walk on the court - finlay knew this, i kinda knew it but still tried to be contrary. i saw a lot of matches where players were on top v Fed throughout the first set & had plenty of break points but never capitalised, fed wld have one, win the set & it was game over.

its like trading though, its almost impossible to systemise it imo, so i have kinda combined the lot: look for value, bet small, green up early. look for certs, lump on, get out early if goes against.

all the strats need good MM skillz, which is the key, as per trading.

i am happy to give some more detail to strategies if people are interested (you can pay decent money for them), even if these were well known & used, the majority wld still lose. just like trading.
 
Jan 24, 2009
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#35
i have a book full of strats ,,some i paid for some i invented some i copied ,,,,all of which make money on the basis of small return on large investement ,,when you take a hit,, wich you will ,, it takes a wedge from your bank ,,so you build it up again slowly ,,then get ahead slowly and then take a hit again ,,im on betfair since 04 and have always traded football ,,,,my best advice would be ,,,,find a score that you think wont happen and build your trade around that ,,be it match odds under/overs or CS ,,,,read that again ,,find something you think wont happen ,,,evry1 thinks they can predict what will happen ,,thats why bookies exist and prosper,,do the opposite ,,then dutch trade and arb your way to profit ,,,sounds simple ,takes time ,costs money
good luck
 
Likes: rsh01
Oct 16, 2012
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#36
umm - safest bet is dont bet at all

N
True (y) ...LOL... couldn't agree with that. Going back to the Q, the thing is you need to engage in betting before learning the punts. Or if you want to know - read:smart: and observe - or if you're brave :devilish: enough, test what you read. It all comes down to experience though than being said by someone.
 

Lord Flasheart

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Jan 20, 2004
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#37
I also look at sports betting and there are ways of making money using the exchanges,but again it is a long term discipline just like trading.If you can succeed at sports betting you should be able to trade and vice versa. Ill tell you one of the strategies I use but not on which market as I dont want competition and it took me ages to work out the % and how to exploit them.

ok lets say I do it on horse racing. I look at all the bet comparison sites and look for a horse that is bigger on betfair than on all the bookies. Now of course most horses are bigger.so I look for a certain % and type of race. I then place win bets on that horse.
its like a reverse arbitrage. I then lay off at a better price when the bookies have started to lay of their money which they will via the exchanges just before the off.
There are lots of arbitrage players in the market and it is now hard to succeed,so I just reversed it.
 

rsh01

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2010
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#38
I then lay off at a better price when the bookies have started to lay of their money which they will via the exchanges just before the off.
There are lots of arbitrage players in the market and it is now hard to succeed,so I just reversed it.
can you explain exactly what the bookies are laying off?

bookies pay out less than they receive, if they have the book balanced correctly then they dont need to lay anything off with betfair, or any other exchange, the money is made before the race has started ie the book odds they offered are less than 1 ( in running odds will work on the same principle) yet they take bets totalling 1 - the difference is their 'fee'. if there is an arb (reverse or otherwise) opportunity i doubt you are taking advantage of it, as it will happen so irregularly.

(i assume by 'bigger' you meant longer.)
 

Lord Flasheart

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2004
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#39
can you explain exactly what the bookies are laying off?

bookies pay out less than they receive, if they have the book balanced correctly then they dont need to lay anything off with betfair, or any other exchange, the money is made before the race has started ie the book odds they offered are less than 1 ( in running odds will work on the same principle) yet they take bets totalling 1 - the difference is their 'fee'. if there is an arb (reverse or otherwise) opportunity i doubt you are taking advantage of it, as it will happen so irregularly.

(i assume by 'bigger' you meant longer.)
thats in an ideal world,with so many bookies around and exchanges the chances of having a balanced 1--% book is unlikely. They all have exchange accounts which they use to balance their books. Think of it this way,wouldnt you. you lay 2/1 all day long and if need be can always back at 2.2/1 on the exchanges. lots of bookies now lay special bets and offers,do you think these offers are from the kindness of their hearts,they are offering something they can balance. The opportunities are often their ill try and explain again but i will use cricket as my example this time

england to win with hills 2.2
bet fred 2.3
lads 2.1
corals 2.0
sportbet 2.4
BETFAIR 2.8

I will look to back england on betfair at 2.8 and above well in advance and hope to get a good wack on,in region of 1k at least. not all of the money will get taken and sometimes none of it as the difference can often soon be swallowed up to make the book closer. Closer to the off time I will lay off and make a profit as some the bookies will now be looking to balance their book on a market that had an imbalance as the betfair % was too far ahead. If the betfair price was 2.6 i wouldnt bother as it is too close to the bookies price. Untill betfair came along the bookies would often be ab le to run a 90% book on any event,thats payout £90 for every £100 taken,nowadays they have to be a lot smarter. This does not work on markets such as horses or inplay
 
Jun 14, 2013
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#40
Read through this thread it's interesting. I went through test period of laying the draw and laying over 2.5 and greening up after 10 - 15 mins or after a goal on laying the draw. I was doing it with small stakes it worked ok I didn't see it out for long enough as I was also betting at the time so any money I was making on Trading I was losing betting.

I am going to start paper trading a few ideas just on any football thats on pre season. Once I get a strategy together I will trade for real and not bet. It's been a while since anyone posted in here so any recent strategies people want to share I would love to hear.

Con
 

alan5616

Active member
Jan 25, 2006
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#42
It's been ages since I posted on T2W but, as the thread still active, I thought it might be useful to share some of my experience of betting and trading football matches on Betfair. In the past year I have concentrated, almost exclusively, on this to make some extra money. Most of the bets/trades were on Man U, Chelsea, Tottenham & Paris St. G games.

I'm a trader, more than a backer or layer. My favourite bet is to back a correct score that has some chance of materialising and then trade it out when goals are scored. I, rarely, let a match go to full time. I, also, make some profitable bets on matches that are 0-0 at HT. The reason being is that most of them don't end up that way.

My strategy of trading out has reaped dividends. On many occasions, had I stuck with the initial bet, until full time, I would have lost. The old adage of markets being driven by fear and greed is just as applicable to sports betting as it is to the financial markets. I haven't made my fortune but, a 25% return in my first full year isn't too bad. It beats bank interest for sure:)

I traded futures, and spot forex, for years. For me, Betfair trading on football matches is far less stressful as, I'm safe in the knowledge that I'm not going to get bad fills/slipped or, generally, ripped off by the scamming market makers and spread bettors that see retail traders as mugs to be taken advantage of. Particularly true in spot forex markets.

In conclusion, I would advise football traders to look at your open position(s) in terms of % profit and not in terms of £ made. If you've had a £50 bet and you're making a £5 profit, within 10 minutes, then take it. Where can you find a bank that will give you that return on your money? Going for bigger profits, is a recipe for disaster. As Brian Clough used to say, "it only takes a second to score a goal". That goal can be scored by the underdog just as easily as the hot favourite; your bet, which you could have cashed in for a profit, has now gone down the drain.:(

Good luck, to all footie traders here, for the forthcoming season.
 

Data Miner

Active member
Sep 4, 2006
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smithycottage.com
#43
Betfair trading apart, which is essentially exploiting market situations rather than betting on football, I have the utmost admiration for anyone who can make a decent return from soccer game betting. But I wonder if anyone really can?

I can make horse race (spread)betting pay, placing my bet before the first race and then let it run until completion, never closing early. (as per my other posts)
Football match prediction though is rather an ongoing obsession with me, but in 30+ years of trying I've never developed a strategy which could stand the test of time. Short term glory ~ a season or two ~ I've seen a-plenty, but more than that and they seem to regress back to the mean.

Of course just because I can't figure it out that doesn't mean it's impossible, but all I ever hear is anecdotal evidence, and folks do love to massage their claimed abilities in this area.

Stock market trading, Betfair strategies with football & other sports, horse race betting, I've seen and witnessed hard evidence supporting successful profits, but football betting . . .

. . . I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for a proof
 
Jul 9, 2010
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#45
Google Tony Bloom. He put £250m into Brighton FC, the money came from betting on every football match played anywhere. He has 40 people in Camden Lock watching every game doing a moneyball type statistical analysis so he knows who the strongest team are before kickoff and then bets £1m on every premiership game. He fell out with his partner who bought Brentford FC.
 
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