Betting on sport - for those who don't like sport and don't understand betting

[tomorton]

The thread title shows my confessions on this - so don't expect any expert tips on exotic betting methodologies from me. Plus I can't even say I like sports - I watch only American Football and F1. I know almost nothing about soccer, cricket, rugby, wiff-waff or any other such wastes of time involving balls.

But there seems to be money to be made for minimal risk and effort - and surely on a strategic level that's a definition of successful trading?

Betting philosophy -
For me betting must be quick and very very very simple. I want to bet traditionally, on the winner of the event. I don't want to pore over tables and statistics. I'm definitely not going to watch more sports. I want a quick outcome, by the end of the week. Plus I have heard experienced gamblers report they make more money on head-to-head contests rather than multi-participant bets - so football, boxing etc. are in, horse racing, F1, league winner bets etc. are out.

American football I like anyway but it also appeals for simple betting. Firstly, tied games (draws) are rare - there is almost always a winner. Second there is a simple and apparently reliable strategy - I'm trialling the Visiting Underdogs strategy: bet on the away team with the longer odds to win: if the away team is the favourite, skip to the next match.

Input welcome from anyone who knows more about all this than I do - which wouldn't be hard.

 

[tomorton]

First weekend of visiting underdogs in American Football worked out alright.

Bet on 6 visiting underdogs: 2 winners, 3 losers, 1 match still to play tonight. Financially up on the deal even if I miss on tonight's game. I'll set another group of these bets tomorrow morning.

American football is only a short season so wondering if the same strategy would work in British football. Though that's also seasonal and there are too many draws perhaps to make it worthwhile. Maybe tennis is a year-round possibility - I've never heard of a draw in tennis although its a stupid game which I hate. Do draws happen in tennis?

 

[malaguti]

hey Tom, i thought you were betting on the favourites..ie the supposed winners of the event, yet you chose the underdogs?
have you given it much attention, as in past performance of such a strategy
if i look at the premiership results this weekend..spurs, man city, man utd all losing would have returned generously, however the chances of man city for example losing like this week in week out is very slim. is the underdog really the best strategy
curious though

 

[tomorton]

Betting on the favourite I think in general hits about only 50% of win bets. And the odds of course are short so aggregate returns are always going to be negative if you just bet on favourites. This is the visiting underdogs strategy which in a head to head sport hits about a 35% win rate but at much better odds.

 

[tomorton]

Now I find I can do things called doubles and trembles. Might be child's play to some but its rocket science to me.

So you pick a team from this match and a team from another match and you can bet they both win. And if you're right that multiplies up your winnings in a bigly way. And you can still bet that each of the individual teams in the double wins. A tremble would be picking the winners of three matches obviously.

So now I have visiting underdogs winning bets on for next weekend, plus a treble and two doubles. This will either be a new genre of steak & kidney pie or it will be another Betamax so if I've understood this betting right I guess that means my odds are 50-50. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

 

[tomorton]

The round-up from last weekend -

American Football - Visiting Underdogs to win (Money Line as the bookies call it) - win rate: 3/8 (37.5%)
Even with a negative win rate the odds for the visiting underdogs ensured a profit again this week. Happy days.
But none of the trebles/doubles won, which I suppose is the likely outcome when win rates are so low. But I will continue to put on one of these per week - the odds are dramatic so if even one wins occasionally, profits will go into the bank.

However the VU strategy seems not to work in Rugby Union or strangely in American college football.

Roll on next weekend.

 

[tomorton]

Researching and reading a bit more on the principles of sports betting, it seems that some generalisations can be drawn across different sports.

The greatest volume of betting on some events is casual punters. And this is helpful because casual punters make the same mistakes again and again -
1) they over-estimate the importance of home field advantage
2) they over-estimate the win rates of favourites
3) they want to bet on big high profile events, not some small local competition
4) they like betting events with lots of action and big scores - excitement - even if these sports types don't often feature this by design

As in trading, apparently the serious bettor can increase their probabilities of profitable betting by betting contrary to the punters according to their biased preconceptions or perspectives by -
1) home field - favouring bets on the visitors - the American Football Visiting Underdogs strategy does exactly this
2) favourites and underdogs - VU also favours the underdog in a two-way match
3) punters sucked in by hype - VU works better in the NFL than College football: in NFL betting most lof the money you're trying to win comes from casual punters, in college football much less
4) excitement - soccer for example is by nature a game with a low number of scoring opportunities per match: this makes outcomes random, which undermines the advantages of home or favourite teams: but it turns out that I can bet on final scores so this also means that betting on low final scores in soccer carries more of what the bookies call value.

It all reminds me of the well known trading principle of going opposite to the crowd, e.g. using brokers' sentiment indicators.

For the next week got a few soccer bets on low-scoring outcomes (like 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 etc.) to some big games as well as the VU bets in the NFL. This could be a useful expansion.

 

[Pat494]

Stick with the big team games imho. They are less likely to be corrupt.

 

[cantagril]

As in trading, apparently the serious bettor can increase their probabilities of profitable betting by betting contrary to the punters according to their biased preconceptions or perspectives by -
1) home field - favouring bets on the visitors - the American Football Visiting Underdogs strategy does exactly this
2) favourites and underdogs - VU also favours the underdog in a two-way match
3) punters sucked in by hype - VU works better in the NFL than College football: in NFL betting most lof the money you're trying to win comes from casual punters, in college football much less
4) excitement - soccer for example is by nature a game with a low number of scoring opportunities per match: this makes outcomes random, which undermines the advantages of home or favourite teams: but it turns out that I can bet on final scores so this also means that betting on low final scores in soccer carries more of what the bookies call value.

Very interesting piece! ....and not a mention of Brexit anywhere
I'm neither a sports fan nor a gambler but you make it sound very tempting..........

Now I find I can do things called doubles and trembles.

And as for a good Tremble,:......well sign me up Scottie!

 

[tomorton]

American Football bets have all been settled now. Same win rate as last week - 3/8 (37.5%) - but this time round the odds for the winning teams didn't quite meet expectations - 8 bets placed at £r each, net result -£0.5r. Still up net on the two weeks combined but a disappointing. I believe sports fans would say "We wuz robbed...".

Tried some Premier League bets also - a little clutch of 5 bets per match for the favourite home team to either win or draw, with a combined score of 3 goals or less per game. If one of the 5 bets is a winner, this ensures a profit. But this is a high risk strategy, like taking multiple long positions in the same currency. Obviously, if the home favourite team loses, all bets are lost for -5r. Net result for 10 bets across two games at £r each, -3r. Maybe has potential but I need to run this some more to understand it better.

Looking forward to next weekend's games.

 

[NVP]

interesting stuff guys ..........

I grew up in a gambling/bookmaker family .......so Ive always had my head in Sports betting alongside trading ......ive not dabbled for a while but was very active - especially back in betfairs early days and whenever the markets/events get decent liquidity .......I especially used to enjoy arbitraging live games with in-match betting ....but again all peanuts liquidity vs proper markets ......its more a hobby option really !

I must admit been a little quieter for me more recently as been tied up elsewhere ...but myself been more recently looking at Esports betting alongside the normal punts

never really looked at US sports but may do ......for me generally its atrociously over rounded books and poor liquidity that prevents me getting serious again .....always thought i might look at points spread betting on NFL games but again not at this time

N

 

[tomorton]

The US is gradually moving towards relaxation of prohibition on sports gambling. So far, 12 states plus DC allow sports betting, though Tennessee allows it online only. I could make the obvious comment that its easier to buy a gun in the US than to bet on your favourite team - but that just sounds smug.

There are parallels with trading -
* liquidity - high profile games offer better odds, more amateur punters and a clearer picture of what the crowd's doing
* sentiment - bet against what the crowd thinks (they over-value favourites and home teams)
* consistency - most punters want to put everything on a big bet and win big once: they provide liquidity for the pro's who are happy to take small profits day after day after day
* the value of information - you don't need to have more information, you just need to not do what the people with insufficient information are doing: parallelling the difference between FA and TA

I'm sorely tempted to put a bit more money into my betting account so I could run a Premier League strategy alongside American Football..............

 

[NVP]

The US is gradually moving towards relaxation of prohibition on sports gambling. So far, 12 states plus DC allow sports betting, though Tennessee allows it online only. I could make the obvious comment that its easier to buy a gun in the US than to bet on your favourite team - but that just sounds smug.

There are parallels with trading -
* liquidity - high profile games offer better odds, more amateur punters and a clearer picture of what the crowd's doing
* sentiment - bet against what the crowd thinks (they over-value favourites and home teams)
* consistency - most punters want to put everything on a big bet and win big once: they provide liquidity for the pro's who are happy to take small profits day after day after day
* the value of information - you don't need to have more information, you just need to not do what the people with insufficient information are doing: parallelling the difference between FA and TA

I'm sorely tempted to put a bit more money into my betting account so I could run a Premier League strategy alongside American Football..............

my be a good idea .....doesnt do any harm to expand the repertoire

 

[tomorton]

Drat! Only scored 1 out of 7 bets for the weekend's American Football Visiting Underdogs' strategy, so obviously that represents a losing weekend. The smaller Premier League test bets were all a bit random but these were tiny so no financial worries there. Hoping for a better result this weekend.

Onwards and upwards!

 

[NVP]

there must be lots of vendors out there selling "surefire" NFL strategies ?.....N

 

[NVP]

for me I would generally first investigate going with favourites ....my first port of call in any sport .......if I can find events where i get a decent return (ie better odds) from a pretty solid favourite I will start to build a strategy around that......

If in game betting were possible I would be especially looking at favourites playing away and falling behind on points in Q1 / Q2 ......as long as it looks close and no other really debilitating issues with the Favs (like players injured etc) I will back them to come back ......maybe just a points spread ......but deffo look at something ......even back them then lay off as they make points back and get out before end of Game if needed ...........i will have made a few quid on the change in odds anyway

that ones not bad in any sport actually ..........so for example - if man City go down to an early goal against anyone its a great strategy ......

must get around to this one day as i like NFL football.....

N

 

[tomorton]

With all the election excitement I forgot the week's update.

Last weekend made 2 out of 6 Visiting Underdogs wins, which left me a good profit. Which is good because the prior weekend was a wash-out with a score of 0/5.

No less than 9 VU bets entered for this weekend. Some olf the odds are pretty long though.......................
Fingers crossed.

 

[vovixis]

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So far, it is profitable and there are no problems with the conclusion

 

[brikrieg]

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[JennGriffin]

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