Sports Day Trading

[Data Miner]

Do you conduct analysis to determine the likelihood that SPs will shorten ?
Paul

The odds of the winning horses (SPs) is closely related to the number of runners in each race. Horses are scratched (withdrawn, not running) at all times up to the start of each race, each one that is scratched therefore reduces the likely overall total - and quotes will reduce to reflect this.

A 4 runner race reduced to a 3 runner race naturally has more of an impact than a 22 runner reducing to a 21 runner race. Even so. the pressure is always for a reducing final make-up.

With this in mind I calculate my predictions a few hours before racing, with the same non-runner information that the spread firms have. If my figures show up as lower than the quotes it is prudent to strike the bet early, knowing that non-runners will simply swing the probabilities more in my favour than they are now. So analysis is unnecessary, it is merely about being aware of the situation.

In contrast, the influence of non-runners on winning distances and favourites is in the opposite direction, i.e. they'll get higher. In these cases I'd jump in early if I was buying, but hold on to see what happens if my figures suggest a sell.

DM

 

[Data Miner]

14 November 2007 (evening racing)

48) SOLD Kempton SPs @ 49(SP) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

15 November 2007

===== Trading results (from 14 November 2007) =====
+603.52 b/fwd

45) BOUGHT Bangor winning lengths @ 34(SF) 6pts MU=41.25 (+41.41)
46) SOLD Bangor SPs @ 49(IG) 4pts MU=40.1 (+35.60)
47) SOLD Lingfield SPs @ 34.5(SF) 4pts MU=19.9 (+55.60)
48) SOLD Kempton SPs @ 49(SP) 4pts MU=41.2 (+31.10)

Day's outcome +163.81

Leaving +767.33 to c/fwd


Today's action

49) SOLD Taunton winning lengths @ 46(SP) 6pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

16 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 15 November 2007) =====
+767.33 b/fwd

49) SOLD Taunton winning lengths @ 46(SP) 6pts MU=71.7 (-154.20)

Day's outcome -154.20

Leaving +613.13 to c/fwd


Today's action

50) SOLD Lingfield winning lengths @ 11.75(IG) 20pts
51) SOLD Cheltenham winning lengths @ 27(all) 6pts
52) SOLD Newcastle winning lengths @ 33(All) 6pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

17 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 16 November 2007) =====
+613.13 b/fwd

50) SOLD Lingfield winning lengths @ 11.75(IG) 20pts MU=8.45 (+64.00)
51) SOLD Cheltenham winning lengths @ 27(all) 6pts MU=16.1 (+65.40)
52) SOLD Newcastle winning lengths @ 33(All) 6pts MU=42 (-54.00)

Day's outcome +77.40

Leaving +690.53 to c/fwd


Today's action

53) SOLD Cheltenham winning lengths @ 25(SP,SX) 6pts
54) SOLD Wetherby SPs @ 38(All)

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

18 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 17 November 2007) =====
+690.53 b/fwd

53) SOLD Cheltenham winning lengths @ 25(SP,SX) 6pts MU=26.35 (-8.10)
54) SOLD Wetherby SPs @ 38(All) MU=33.3 (+18.80)

Day's outcome +10.70

Leaving +701.23 to c/fwd


Today's action

55) SOLD Cheltenham winning lengths @ 30(SP) 6pts
56) SOLD Cork SPs @ 45(SP) 4pts
57) SOLD Carlisle SPs @ 49(SP) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

19 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 18 November 2007) =====
+701.23 b/fwd

55) SOLD Cheltenham winning lengths @ 30(SP) 6pts MU=20.5 (+57.00)
56) SOLD Cork SPs @ 45(SP) 4pts MU=21.2 (+95.20)
57) SOLD Carlisle SPs @ 49(SP) 4pts MU=48 (+4.00)

Day's outcome +156.20

Leaving +857.43 to c/fwd


Today's action

58) SOLD Kempton SPs @ 59(IG,SX) 4pts
59) SOLD Wolverhampton SPs @ 53.5 (SF) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

20 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 19 November 2007) =====
+857.43 b/fwd

58) SOLD Kempton SPs @ 59(IG,SX) 4pts MU=43.4 (+62.40)
59) SOLD Wolverhampton SPs @ 53.5 (SF) 4pts MU=30.8 (+86.44)

Day's outcome +148.84

Leaving +1,006.27 to c/fwd


Today's action

60) SOLD Folkestone SPs @ 44(SP,SX) 4pts
(was tempted to sell Fakenham favourites @ 75, but resisted)

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

21 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 20 November 2007) =====
+1,006.27 b/fwd

60) SOLD Folkestone SPs @ 44(SP,SX) 4pts MU=113.1 (-276.40)

Day's outcome -276.40

Leaving +729.87 to c/fwd


Today's action

61) BOUGHT Warwick winning lengths @ 32(SF) 6pts
62) SOLD Warwick SPs @ 54(SP) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

21 November 2007 (evening racing)

63) SOLD Kempton SPs @ 48(All) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

23 November 2007
No trades yesterday

===== Trading results (from 21 November 2007) =====
+729.87 b/fwd

61) BOUGHT Warwick winning lengths @ 32(SF) 6pts MU=19.2 (-76.80)
62) SOLD Warwick SPs @ 54(SP) 4pts MU=31.8 (+88.80)
63) SOLD Kempton SPs @ 48(All) 4pts MU=60 (-48.00)

Day's outcome -36.00

Leaving +693.87 to c/fwd


Today's action

64) SOLD Kelso winning lengths @ 37(SP) 6pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

24 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 23 November 2007) =====
+693.87 b/fwd

64) SOLD Kelso winning lengths @ 37(SP) 6pts MU=23.5 (+81.00)

Day's outcome +81.00

Leaving +774.87 to c/fwd


Today's action

65) BOUGHT Haydock winning lengths @ 35(SP,SX) 6pts
66) SOLD Gowran Park winning lengths @ 26(SP) 6pts
67) SOLD Gowran Park SPs @ 56(SP) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Trader333]

Just in case you think no one is looking, I always do as I am finding it of interest and your method appears sound.


Paul

 

[Data Miner]

25 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 24 November 2007) =====
+774.87 b/fwd

65) BOUGHT Haydock winning lengths @ 35(SP,SX) 6pts MU=14.25 (-124.50)
66) SOLD Gowran Park winning lengths @ 26(SP) 6pts MU=24 (+12.00)
67) SOLD Gowran Park SPs @ 56(SP) 4pts MU=31.5 (+98.00)

Day's outcome -14.50

Leaving +760.37 to c/fwd


Today's action

68) SOLD Navan SPs @ 59(SP) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

Just in case you think no one is looking, I always do as I am finding it of interest and your method appears sound.
Paul

Thanks Paul.

Pity I can't expand upon my selection "thinking", it's all black-box neural network generated.

DM

 

[Data Miner]

26 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 25 November 2007) =====
+760.37 b/fwd

68) SOLD Navan SPs @ 59(SP) 4pts MU=31.9 (+108.40)

Day's outcome +108.40

Leaving +868.77 to c/fwd


Today's action

69) SOLD Ayr SPs @ 53(SP,SX) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

27 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 26 November 2007) =====
+868.77 b/fwd

69) SOLD Ayr SPs @ 53(SP,SX) 4pts MU=89.4 (-145.60)

Day's outcome -145.60

Leaving +723.17 to c/fwd


Today's action:

70) SOLD Kempton winning lengths @ 37(SX) 6pts

... and off playing football tonight too ...
71) BOUGHT Norwich mini-perf @ 16(SP) 3pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

28 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 27 November 2007) =====
+723.17 b/fwd

70) SOLD Kempton winning lengths @ 37(SX) 6pts MU=20.25 (+100.50)
71) BOUGHT Norwich mini-perf @ 16(SP) 3pts MU=45 (+87.00)

Day's outcome +187.50

Leaving +910.67 to c/fwd


Today's action:

72) SOLD Wetherby SPs @ 42(SP) 4pts
73) SOLD Lingfield SPs @ 42(SP,SX) 4pts
74) SOLD Blackburn mini-perf @ 21 (SP,SX) 3pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

28 November 2007 (evening racing)

75) SOLD Kempton winning lengths @ 8.5(IG) 20pts
76) SOLD Kempton SPs @ 52(SP) 4pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

29 November 2007
===== Trading results (from 28 November 2007) =====
+910.67 b/fwd

72) SOLD Wetherby SPs @ 42(SP) 4pts MU=50.7 (-34.80)
73) SOLD Lingfield SPs @ 42(SP,SX) 4pts MU=58.3 (-65.20)
74) SOLD Blackburn mini-perf @ 21 (SP,SX) 3pts MU=-15 (+108.00)
75) SOLD Kempton winning lengths @ 8.5(IG) 20pts MU=8.15 (+7.00)
76) SOLD Kempton SPs @ 52(SP) 4pts MU=46.5 (+22.00)

Day's outcome +37.00

Leaving +947.67 to c/fwd


Today's action

77) SOLD Carlisle SPs @ 39(All) 4pts
78) SOLD Taunton winning lengths @ 41(IG) 6pts
79) SOLD Thurles SPs @ 52(SP) 4pts

Happy spreading!