Excellent post PurplePerson.
Can see the logic in your tactics, but it is not one I would feel comfortable following for a couple of reasons.
Firstly I never bet on gut feelings - for me at any rate it is a betting graveyard. Maybe I’m just a crappy game reader, but all too often my emotions get the better of me. Everything I do is statistics based. Cold, clinical, unemotional and unbiased stats, I love ‘em.
Statistics are not swayed by personal bias, or how I’m feeling that day. Stats, unlike my personal opinion, can be analysed at a later date leaving me comfortable in the knowledge that the bottom line decision will remain constant, based as it was on a numerical assessment. I can never be certain my opinion stays constant, in fact I know it is affected by external influences.
Must admit on occasions I look at my statistics based predictions with some scepticism, thinking that can’t be right . . . sometimes I right too! But thankfully it proves me wrong more times than not.
You are putting a fair degree of trust in the radio commentator in your Everton v Liverpool example, aren’t you? Can you be sure that their view of proceedings is an accurate one? Does he favour one team above the other, etc.? Ask opposing fans after a 0-0 draw and they’ll probably both say their team should have won.
My second reason is this. Every time I’ve examined closing-early strategies I’ve found a better way (and by better I mean more profitable) by alternative means. One that doesn’t need to be closed early, paying the price of the spread twice.
Football is apparently sports spreads highest trade area, and as such they will be very good with their spread quotes. Every little edge helps as a punter, and closing early goes against the grain for me giving up those few spread points each time impacts on my bottom line.
As you point out, your bet is really one of selling the time of the first goal by another means. Have you tried comparing the two, side-by-side, on the same game? You might be pleasantly surprised. I know the downside of a losing trade is far higher, but it is in such circumstances where the spread bettor often has the long term edge. But of course the punter needs to be comfortable with his investment, and for many winning small and often is not sufficient recompense for the occasional big hitting loser. (a fact known only too well by the spread companies, which is why most spreads are pitched on the high side)
Good luck with your exploits, and don’t let anything I say put you off what works for you. In the end, winning is the name of the game, and by using that measure you’re tactics are better than mine over recent days. So, what do I know?
PurplePerson said:
I bet on selected football matches.
I only do so on live matches, ie those on which bets are allowed to be placed, adjusted or closed during play. The majority of my bets are closed before the match finishes, and are mostly opened with that intention in mind.
My most frequent position is a downbet on the time of the third goal. Not because I expect a third goal, but because the quotes for the third goal (and second goal) get revised shrply downwards (and can be then closed for a gain) when the first goal happens, and on g3 (rather than on g2 or g1) the quoted spread is relatively close to the maximum 90 minute level - so the potential loss is limited. A successful bet on g1 would often be far more profitable - but the opening quote on g1 is usually up to 60pts away from the 90, which means losses can also be huge.
In effect I am betting on the timing of g1, but using a g3 bet to do so.
If there are no goals, or if the first goal comes late, I lose. Overall my record so far is positive (ie more money won than lost) but this is largely thanks to being very picky as to which games I bet on.
I usually open with a tiny g3 downbet ahead of kickoff ( so as not to miss out in the event of a first-minute goal) but then gradually increase the stake as the quote improves with time, depending on how lively the game sounds on the radio.. To win I need a goal to ideally happen before about 35 minutes into the game. In yesterday's Everton-Liverpool game, I started with a tiny 10p stake on g3, and added 20p every few minutes. Because a goal sounded likely, I also opened a downbet on the time of g1, which is something I don't often do. By the time g1 went in (24th minute) my stake on g3 was 90p and on g1 was 70p. My g1 bet closed automatically, my g3 bet I closed manually, total win £20.30p
I stick to 'match goals' rather than specific team goals - to allow for the unpredictability of which team will score first. Even though the odds are less favourable. So I don't care which team scores first. (The term "goal scored against the run of play" crops up more often re the first goal than for later goals - and there's no telling when a ref will award a penalty or dangerous free kick, regardless of form).
I don't normally bet on who will win. But yesterday when Everton got their second goal, the spread quoted for a Liverpool win dropped to 2.5 - 3.5 (payout is 25pts for win, 10 for draw, nil for defeat) and i opened a small 50p upbet on Liverpool. Not because i expected them to come back and win, but because I figured they may well pull a goal back and this would likely shift the quote to a level worth cashing in at. The risk was I might lose 3.5pts, which i did. That lost me £1.75, so my overall profit on that game was £18.55
PP
We must each pursue whatever works for ourselves. But I do listen to all alternative views and observations and would be willing to test other tactics alongside the ones I use. (Mind you.. it is not unknown for agents of betting firms to frequent forums, disguised as friendly punters, while collecting commission for every new customer they steer towards some firm or other, or for advising bettors badly. That could be you or me or anyone..) 
