Sports Spread Betting

[bizmanny]

I would hold yes.
By the time the above has happened the spread has moved to accommodate it, and, where circumstances are extreme as per 2 sendings off, etc., the spread firms KNOW that the bettors who have benefitted from the extremes will hold on, the only punters likely to be copping out are those who are seeing their losses spiral. With that in mind the spread boys move their spreads disproportionately to catch (and to penalise) those who will be closing early.

More often than not, when extreme deviations from the expected occur the spread firms cash in on the early closers by moving the spread too much. Those who hold on until the bitter end will usually fare better.

I see you points. Have you actually calculate how many goals are scored in the last 5 minutes. I haven't but at period of the game most teams are tired and some of them have gave in. Hence more likely for goal to occur. Anyway i am you normally take into this consideration. Pesonal if i can get 20-30 points i would cash in.

This is no reflection on PP's methodology, he's setting out with closing early in mind and is very aware of the bets downside. All my betting is based upon the end result and a closed spread make-up.

One final reason for my not closing early is I never bet on what I'm watching (or listening to), and I never watch what I've bet on. This tactic avoids the psychological roller-coaster ride.

DM

I see you points. Have you actually calculate how many goals are scored in the last 5 minutes. I haven't but at period of the game most teams are tired and some of them have gave in. Hence more likely for goal to occur. Anyway i am you normally take into this consideration. Pesonal if i can get 20-30 points i would cash in.

On your final points. But you might see some oppurtunity arise during the game if you watch the game which you cash in.

 

[bizmanny]

Tested that with 10p sell on each team's third goal. First goal came on 23 minutes (for Reading). Downward shift in Reading's third goal quote was not sufficient to make a profit, let alone swamp the loss on the third city goal bet. The bet I would usually make (g3 non team-specific) would have won 2 pts. (opening quote 77-79, closing price 72-75 at 24 minutes).

Closed out both bets for a 10p loss and 30p loss. (I know, I know - should have just let them run this time, bearing in mind we are talking in pence. Too late now). In the unlikely either team actually scores 3 goals, I will check what time/win)

PP

Hi PurplePerson,
Have you ever try to bet the other way. Say buying the time for the first goal and sell after 10 minutes of the game or time 2nd goal and sell after 15 minutes. Assuming that you think the game might be tight. It might be worth it in Italian League. Where the emphasis in on defence.

 

[bizmanny]

Final outcome on that Reading-ManCity match was 1-0.
Had I kept the two team-related downbets open till expiry, the loss would have been 80p, whereas closing early it was half that.

(Being a test ,this was only pence. Think of it in pounds for something more serious.)

Clearly not a tactic that is worthwhile. But worth the experiment just to prove it.

I found it interesting that my usual approach would have worked - albeit for a 2pt gain only. Though this is not a match that I considered good enough to do that.

Not had time yet to assess Tuesday night's EUFA Cup matches - and I'm likely to be busy tomorrow so might not be able to bet.

PP

Let's us know the outcome tomorrow if you gonna time bet.
Goodluck.

 

[Phenyo]

Sorry to resurrect,a dead thread from so many years, ago but I have definitely found the contents accounted for here to be very useful as I look to establish a better strategy for my punts, thanks for your input folks.

 

[MattSmith]

OMG... This post is so old but still it is useful as it would be 6 and something year ago. Thanks for posting this wonderful post..