Any other swing traders?

[bgold]

Homeschoolma,
Thank you for sharing your strategy with us. I am still trying to work out my swing trading strategy but is/will be essentially TA based with perhaps confirmation in fundamentals. We definitely share interest in following Insider activity.
You mention 3 names: CURE, WFT and SRDX
CURE is too illiquid & gappy for my liking. If one believes that all gaps are filled, this might be an interesting long?
WFT and SRDX seem to display triple bottom formations?
Both names may be testing bottoms and might be ready for next rise, but, it seems that risks are quite substantial. Especially, relative to your target exit levels. For example, SRDX could easily test $25 before reversing upwards and WFT's 12mos lows are at $34/35. If that support breaks, it seeems to me that the price could quickly test $25.-

I wondered how you determmine the stops in your strategy?
Thanks for sharing.
bgold

 

[Homeschoolma]

You are absolutely right that WFT and SRDX are risky trades...the riskiest I've taken in a long time. I may be punished for them by the very fact that they don't live up to my personal set of financial parameters. Another factor in my strategy is that I buy, at most, 500 shares of any one stock. My stop loss is when it goes down more than $2 from what I bought it at. This will give me a loss of @ $1000, but that's something I can easily absorb and still show a profit overall as long as I don't do it too often. If SRDX retests it's lows of @ $25, I won't sweat it out. My goal is sell before the end of December. If it's goes any lower, then I'll bail out.

I can easily sell my 500 shares of CURE at any time. It's a one trade deal that I go long on. I've never had a problem buying or selling my 500 shares in the past, but I won't have the chance to trade it again until the next sharp dip in the late spring.

These stocks are one shot deals for this quarter that I choose to take because I hope to gain more than $1 per share profit. Of course I will have other stocks that I can trade in and out of every couple of weeks. Those will usually give me a profit $0.50 to $1 per trade, but I'm still looking for them.

 

[ColinRiche]

I'm also interested in talking swing trading
for UK and Nasdaq stocks

what is meant by a swing chart i hear mentioned,
is this just a normal daily chart or something else ?

 

[Homeschoolma]

Swing trading usually involves holding a stock for several days or several weeks. I haven't found any stocks with good weekly or bi-weekly swings yet, but when I do I'll share them. Later tonight I'll try to look up some old sites I used to research swing trading for you. They should have some old sample charts that you can study.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Rio Tinto looks good. The bands on this chart are around the 21day moving average. When it hits the red and black lines there is usually a good reversal.

 

[Homeschoolma]

http://www.tradersedge.biz/swing_trading.htm

This site has a good introductory tutorial. It's hard to find sites that teach swing trading without having to sign up and pay these days. I was shocked.

 

[Homeschoolma]

I was punnished from deviating from my rules. This morning WFT released a pre-report warning that they won't meet their EPS estimates. The price reached my stop-loss range and I bailed out of it.

 

[Moriarty]

How long do you normally hold your stocks, and do they come from one index generally eg S&P 500, or do you spread the net wider? I could easily trade SP 500 stocks and like your approach.

 

[Homeschoolma]

Hi Moriarty,

I don't favor any specific index. How long I hold a stock completely depends on it's historical chart pattern and what I expect to gain from it realistically. Some are one time trades that I will hold for four to eight weeks, while others may settle into a channeling pattern that I can get into and out of every week to three weeks.

If I'm going to hold a stock for several weeks, it's because I expect a profit of $2 a share or more. NCEN was my gem in 2002 and this past spring. I was able to make $4 to $6 profit trading that one. Now it's so high I'm afraid to touch it.

For the stocks that are in a channeling pattern, I'm perfectly happy with a profit of $0.50 to $1.00 because the frequency of those trades add up. ALFA had a nice channeling pattern for November & December of 2002. Most of the time I made only $0.50, but the frequency made up for that. This past spring it channeled briefly and then jumped too high for me to trust.

 

[Fluke]

Homeschoolma.
What is your most reliable low risk trade entry set up on your swing trades?.

 

[Goober]

Bigbusiness

Interesting chart! What settings are you using for the bands? Is the MA a 21 SMA or EMA?

Goober

 

[Bigbusiness]

Hi Goober,

They are SMA settings. It works well for some shares and indicies but the settings might need to be adjusted for each of them. I export the data in to excel and make my own setting for every share or index I want to look at. I haven't used this much but it gives me an idea of when a share or index might be overbought or oversold.

 

[frugi]

Just thought I'd add my very simple 60 min swing system which had provided a reasonable return since 1/8/03 on the SPX. Buy, sell or reverse on the EMA crossovers (waiting until end of 60 min bar for confirmation/negation) with a catastrophe stop on the relevant EMA band (which can be trailed along band in direction of trade).

It will probably stop working soon in which case it's back to the old manual chart scanning

More convoluted detail available on my website if required.

 

[Homeschoolma]

Homeschoolma.
What is your most reliable low risk trade entry set up on your swing trades?.

Are you asking for specific stocks or do you want me to go into more detail about my system? At this moment I don't have any stock choices that would qualify as reliable and low risk, but new quarterly reports are coming out every day and I'm searching for new stocks every evening. When one surfaces, I'll buy and talk about it to explain why I trust it.

If you want me to go into more detail about finding a stock that I trust, I could look up the charts and financials of an old favorite and explain why I trusted it.

 

[Homeschoolma]

Today I was punnished for the other stock that violated my rule. I bailed out of SRDX. :| Never again will I buy a stock before it's quarterly reports are released.

 

[tomorton]

Homeschoolma -

Hi.
Have you tried/thought of swing trading the FTSE100 and other indices?
I swing trade as I'm useless at intra-day stuff but also am working full-time 9-5, no time to watch news.
Indices do move intra-day, but no news generally so bad as to knock 10's of % off value before I get home, so safer to hold while not watching.
I read Marc Rivalland's book on wing trading few months ago and have become much more disciplined along his principles since.
He certainly favours the indices.

 

[Bill G]

Big Business
I'm interested to know how you produced the percentages for your trading bands in excel.
Each stock would have a different percent. ?
How far back do you go generally?
Be obliged if you could help.
Bill

 

[Homeschoolma]

Hi Tomorton,

I've only tried the QQQ (for Nasdaq 100) once this year and I did make money. I'll need to study your FTSE and it's seasonal chart history. I'd love to learn more about your strategy.

 

[tomorton]

Hi Homeschoolma.

Ooops, didn't see your Floida location. But really the strategy I use isn't mine its Rivalland's - the books well worth buying (though cheap that I am I borrowed it from a friend).

Though I favour the FTSE, like any TA-based sytem, it would work on any index. Marc seems mainly interested in the Dow, Nas and FTSE, but spends a lot of time analysing trades on the Dax in the book.

It may not be radical or very original, but the nice features are that its objective (a price either is or is not greater than x, there is no interpretation or fundamental analysis required) and its a methodology for people who can't/won't/shouldn't watch the market intra-day - I fall into the 1st and 3rd categories. When I had time, I was undisciplined about entry points and exit strategies. I always supposed that because I was prepared and able to watch the price all day, I could always trade my way out of any situation.

Now I can't watch the market, so have to take longer-term positions and set exits when I open these. So I am more disciplined and more prepared to wait for a better entry or exit. Now I have a proper plan for each trade, and don't rely on reactions and spur of the moment cut and thrust stuff. So if I ever do have time off work, the best thing I can do is not watch the screen.

The precise method has to suit the individual, and to some extent they're all good, but its more important yours must suit you personally.

Best wishes.

 

[jitasb]

What platforms do you guys use for swing trading ?
E.g. Spreadbetting, CFDs, Direct Access ??

Thanks in advance...