An FXDealers GBP/USD Journal

FX-Dealer

Newbie
9 0
Hi All!

I was originally going to start this thread in either the 'Technical Analysis' section or 'Forex' section but decided it would be best just to run it as a journal instead.

I would like to introduce myself and give you a bit of background and how I will hopefully mange to run this thread.

My name is Jennifer Spears and I'm a 30 something employed currency dealer with Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank. I have previously worked for Barclays Investment Bank and I had two spells with BNP Investment Partners, you can view my Linkedin Profile here - Linkedin

I used to deal with G7 currency pairs but have spent the last few months on the Sterling desk and I'm mostly a EURGBP & GBPUSD swap rate spread and spot dealer focusing on NP7's & NNA's for corporate clients.

I have recently handed in my notice which I'm working (currently on xmas leave) as I'm looking to move into other sectors as my career progresses. Before I do, I'm preparing for study for some exams which I will be sitting during 2015 and then taking a continued break before going back into work.

Once I have worked my notice I plan on trading the GBPUSD with a personal trading account while I study and support myself. I will have a fair bit of free time, so I thought I would try running a blog or a forum thread, as you can see, I opted for the forum thread.

As and when I can, I will post my analysis and thoughts for the GBPUSD as well as possible trade set-ups. My analysis will vary depending on the situation the market is under and the current state of the flow and options market.

My analysis is drilled using various techniques -

Option Barriers
Option Ratios
Order Flow
News Flow
Swap Spreads
NP7's/NNA's
Technical Analysis
Harmonic Patterns
S&R


As I transition from the institutional side of the market into a self financed home retail trader I will not have access to most of the data and flow that I'm accustomed to. Therefore I will likely focus more on the technical analysis, harmonic patterns, S&R and Option barrier/ratio side of things to position myself and analyse the GBP.

I will be focusing on the day trading side of things and perhaps the occasional multi-day swings. I won't be sharing my trade plan, finances or performance here as the thread is about the analysis side of things and not buy/sell recommendations.

I would also like to go on the record here by saying that my analysis is my opinion only and is no reflection of my current employer or past employers. Nor is it to be classed as financial advice. My analysis and opinions are my own, right or wrong, and how I personally view the market at the time of writing.

With all that said, I would like to wish everyone a happy xmas and new year and profitable trading journey for 2015.
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,300
Hi All!

I was originally going to start this thread in either the 'Technical Analysis' section or 'Forex' section but decided it would be best just to run it as a journal instead.

I would like to introduce myself and give you a bit of background and how I will hopefully mange to run this thread.

My name is Jennifer Spears and I'm a 30 something employed currency dealer with Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank. I have previously worked for Barclays Investment Bank and I had two spells with BNP Investment Partners, you can view my Linkedin Profile here - Linkedin

I used to deal with G7 currency pairs but have spent the last few months on the Sterling desk and I'm mostly a EURGBP & GBPUSD swap rate spread and spot dealer focusing on NP7's & NNA's for corporate clients.

I have recently handed in my notice which I'm working (currently on xmas leave) as I'm looking to move into other sectors as my career progresses. Before I do, I'm preparing for study for some exams which I will be sitting during 2015 and then taking a continued break before going back into work.

Once I have worked my notice I plan on trading the GBPUSD with a personal trading account while I study and support myself. I will have a fair bit of free time, so I thought I would try running a blog or a forum thread, as you can see, I opted for the forum thread.

As and when I can, I will post my analysis and thoughts for the GBPUSD as well as possible trade set-ups. My analysis will vary depending on the situation the market is under and the current state of the flow and options market.

My analysis is drilled using various techniques -

Option Barriers
Option Ratios
Order Flow
News Flow
Swap Spreads
NP7's/NNA's
Technical Analysis
Harmonic Patterns
S&R


As I transition from the institutional side of the market into a self financed home retail trader I will not have access to most of the data and flow that I'm accustomed to. Therefore I will likely focus more on the technical analysis, harmonic patterns, S&R and Option barrier/ratio side of things to position myself and analyse the GBP.

I will be focusing on the day trading side of things and perhaps the occasional multi-day swings. I won't be sharing my trade plan, finances or performance here as the thread is about the analysis side of things and not buy/sell recommendations.

I would also like to go on the record here by saying that my analysis is my opinion only and is no reflection of my current employer or past employers. Nor is it to be classed as financial advice. My analysis and opinions are my own, right or wrong, and how I personally view the market at the time of writing.

With all that said, I would like to wish everyone a happy xmas and new year and profitable trading journey for 2015.


Hi Jennifer

The same to you and I wish you well with your journal

I too trade the GU on a intraday basis - so look forward to your own opinions etc

All the very best

Regards


F
 

Kinell

Junior member
33 14
Hi Jennifer, we've had many a charlatan pass through this suite of forums over the years.
Any chance of a selfie with you holding a piece of paper and would you be so kind to write 'Kinell for President' or 't2w sucks' to at least confirm your identity.....

Thanks
 
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Kinell

Junior member
33 14
She seems like the real deal. Let's face it, I doubt 99% of those posting here even know what a swap spread is...

Maybe. It might be that I came over all Xenophobic when I saw the flag in her avatar.:whistling

Apologies in advance if you are indeed the real deal Jennifer.
 

FX-Dealer

Newbie
9 0
Maybe. It might be that I came over all Xenophobic when I saw the flag in her avatar.:whistling

Apologies in advance if you are indeed the real deal Jennifer.

Hi Kinell

I don't know why you would have a dislike or fear against foreigners which is what Xenophobic refers to, not sure if its a racist or bigoted remark or I have misinterpreted you. I'm British and from what I can tell about your profile you're British as well or at least live in Britain, I could be mistaken.

The image/flags I have opted to use as a silly avatar is a Union Jack & N.American flag to represent the GBP/USD which is the main topic of discussion on this thread. I'm not 1/2 American if that is what you are referring to.

Hi Jennifer, we've had many a charlatan pass through this suite of forums over the years.
Any chance of a selfie with you holding a piece of paper and would you be so kind to write 'Kinell for President' or 't2w sucks' to at least confirm your identity.....

Thanks

I'm sure you have had many over the years, but there is no need to be rude with a new member to the board and start requesting private photo shots. I haven't signed-up to this forum to jump thru hoops on demand and post pictures of myself for strange online users I have had no contact with before.

I have started this thread to discuss the GBP/USD and provide my analysis and opinion for anyone interested in giving it the time of day. If readers of this forum board do not respect my views or profile then everyone and anyone is free to stop reading the thread and ignore it.

The purpose is to discuss and share analysis for the GBP, mainly GBP/USD. Its not a thread for trade signals or buy/sell recommendations. Analysis and discussion only is the aim.

I hope we can move forward and all future posts published from now on can be on topic. I hope to start my own first GBP/USD post tomorrow morning.

Have a good evening.
 

Kinell

Junior member
33 14
Hi Kinell

I don't know why you would have a dislike or fear against foreigners which is what Xenophobic refers to, not sure if its a racist or bigoted remark or I have misinterpreted you. I'm British and from what I can tell about your profile you're British as well or at least live in Britain, I could be mistaken.

The image/flags I have opted to use as a silly avatar is a Union Jack & N.American flag to represent the GBP/USD which is the main topic of discussion on this thread. I'm not 1/2 American if that is what you are referring to.



I'm sure you have had many over the years, but there is no need to be rude with a new member to the board and start requesting private photo shots. I haven't signed-up to this forum to jump thru hoops on demand and post pictures of myself for strange online users I have had no contact with before.

I have started this thread to discuss the GBP/USD and provide my analysis and opinion for anyone interested in giving it the time of day. If readers of this forum board do not respect my views or profile then everyone and anyone is free to stop reading the thread and ignore it.

The purpose is to discuss and share analysis for the GBP, mainly GBP/USD. Its not a thread for trade signals or buy/sell recommendations. Analysis and discussion only is the aim.

I hope we can move forward and all future posts published from now on can be on topic. I hope to start my own first GBP/USD post tomorrow morning.

Have a good evening.

Jennifer, I am terribly sorry I feel such a fool as I have been enjoying xmas far too much and appear to have let my love for alcoholic beverages cloud my judgment. I now hang my head in shame and feel the only way for us all to move on from this is for me to depart from this here suite of forums and be on my merry way.
Farewell and a happy new year to you all, I'll drink to that.;)


 

FX-Dealer

Newbie
9 0
The drop thru 120 on USDJPY this morning was a help for GBPUSD to collect a large group of bids that sat unfilled @ 1.5500, though the USDJPY was a help it wasn't the the main driver. Both macro and technical reasons as well as relatively light trade were factors.

The US$ curve is bull flattening as the market heads into month and year end tomorrow. Very little outright swap interest but the flatter curve has attracted some position squaring bids as side-accounts probe around. 5s/10s has seen payers at 40.25bp after breaking the previous lows of 41bp. 2s/10s is hovering over the year lows of 93.25bp.

Swap Rates:

2-YEAR 0.941 0.951 0.961

3-YEAR 1.162 1.167 1.172

4-YEAR 1.343 1.348 1.353

5-YEAR 1.492 1.497 1.502

6-YEAR 1.583 1.608 1.633

7-YEAR 1.699 1.704 1.709

8-YEAR 1.779 1.784 1.789

9-YEAR 1.847 1.852 1.857

10-YEAR 1.907 1.912 1.917

At 1.5568 sits the 10DMA & 1.5585 Monday's high while above here a favorite for technical traders sits the kijun line @ 1.5656 which has been a key resistance for GBPUSD for a number of weeks. I have attached the daily chart expressing the kijun line which should be monitored for sellers entering the market, so 1.5650/56 should be a key technical zone for technical chart traders to note down as a possible area for sellers to appear.

On an intraday basis the current move up was macro and light trade driven, however there were technical reasons to attempt longs this morning which came in the form of a bullish hourly Cypher pattern which has completed both its 38% and 61% retracement targets. I have attached the hourly chart expressing this pattern which also fell into rolling bids.
 

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FX-Dealer

Newbie
9 0
The drop thru 120 on USDJPY this morning was a help for GBPUSD to collect a large group of bids that sat unfilled @ 1.5500, though the USDJPY was a help it wasn't the the main driver. Both macro and technical reasons as well as relatively light trade were factors.

The US$ curve is bull flattening as the market heads into month and year end tomorrow. Very little outright swap interest but the flatter curve has attracted some position squaring bids as side-accounts probe around. 5s/10s has seen payers at 40.25bp after breaking the previous lows of 41bp. 2s/10s is hovering over the year lows of 93.25bp.

Swap Rates:

2-YEAR 0.941 0.951 0.961

3-YEAR 1.162 1.167 1.172

4-YEAR 1.343 1.348 1.353

5-YEAR 1.492 1.497 1.502

6-YEAR 1.583 1.608 1.633

7-YEAR 1.699 1.704 1.709

8-YEAR 1.779 1.784 1.789

9-YEAR 1.847 1.852 1.857

10-YEAR 1.907 1.912 1.917

At 1.5568 sits the 10DMA & 1.5585 Monday's high while above here a favorite for technical traders sits the kijun line @ 1.5656 which has been a key resistance for GBPUSD for a number of weeks. I have attached the daily chart expressing the kijun line which should be monitored for sellers entering the market, so 1.5650/56 should be a key technical zone for technical chart traders to note down as a possible area for sellers to appear.

On an intraday basis the current move up was macro and light trade driven, however there were technical reasons to attempt longs this morning which came in the form of a bullish hourly Cypher pattern which has completed both its 38% and 61% retracement targets. I have attached the hourly chart expressing this pattern which also fell into rolling bids.

Following on from the 'quoted post' I have attached a 15 Minute chart expressing a supply zone 1.5640/60 which hosts the daily charts kijun line which as of today sits at 1.5656.
 

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cashmagnet

Junior member
14 1
What is NP7s / NNAs? Thanks. I am looking forward to your posts. I am in the dark about forex and hoping to learn a lot.
 

FX-Dealer

Newbie
9 0
You'd think he'd at least disguise his charts a bit! ��

I'm sorry, have I offended you in someway or another ?

I was under the impression that this was a forum that welcomed people to join and post their analysis and views as well as cover other topics.

So far I have had two rude remarks, one boarding racist or bigotry remarks and the other from you a moderator of the board making comments about my charts for some reason.

If I have done something wrong here then please notify me for correction or please explain why I'm being targeted for such remarks.
 

FX-Dealer

Newbie
9 0
What is NP7s / NNAs? Thanks. I am looking forward to your posts. I am in the dark about forex and hoping to learn a lot.

Hi cashmagnet

NP7's and NNA's are derivative products mostly used to hedge spot positions against swap rates. Normally reserved for corporate and leveraged accounts with 3-6-9-12 month expires or 24hr rolling expires at a higher premium.
 

FX-Dealer

Newbie
9 0
At 1.5568 sits the 10DMA & 1.5585 Monday's high while above here a favorite for technical traders sits the kijun line @ 1.5656 which has been a key resistance for GBPUSD for a number of weeks. I have attached the daily chart expressing the kijun line which should be monitored for sellers entering the market, so 1.5650/56 should be a key technical zone for technical chart traders to note down as a possible area for sellers to appear.

Following on from the 'quoted post' I have attached a 15 Minute chart expressing a supply zone 1.5640/60 which hosts the daily charts kijun line which as of today sits at 1.5656.

Following on from both 'quoted posts' expressing technical and flow zones around 1.5640-60 from a price foot-print and the kijun line I have just discovered and plotted another technical pattern that suggests the 1.5659-69 zone is an area that sellers might appear, this time coming in the form of a bearish bat.

The GBPUSD now has the 15 minute supply zone @ 1.5640/60 while the kijun line is @ 1.5656 and the bearish bat PRZ @ 1.5659/69. With all 3 in confluence of this 1.5640/69 overall range I would expect sellers to appear here if GBPUSD can manage to get to this area.

I have attached the 1 hour chart displaying the bearish bat for reference.
 

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FX-Dealer

Newbie
9 0
Profit taking on US$ provided a three-quarter push up on GBPUSD yesterday and into London today. Still very light trade as one would expected during the holiday period.

London finding bids at yesterday mornings London top 1.5550 which is a very common place to locate rolling bids from clearing houses acting on behalf of corporate's.

Resistance levels include Mondays high 1.5585 and the 1.5600 followed by technical levels including fibs which print at 1.5610 - 624/35 then the large cluster zone of 1.5640/69 where larger screen sellers are expected.

While above 1.5545/50 one would expect higher prices on the back of light trade. Below 1.5545/50 turns the balance for resumption of the downtrend.

US jobless claims, Chicago PMI & pending home sales data in pipeline later.

US$ Index does have room to fall a bit more to 89.64 should news flow disappoint and below here would really open up a more severe drop. I have attached the US$ Index hourly chart for reference.

GBPUSD hourly chart also attached for reference.
 

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Inquisitor

Active member
139 50
Dear Jennifer,

The members of Trade2Win have on numerous occasions had new people come onto the boards claiming to be something that later on they were found not to be and in such numbers that it is only due diligence for some of them to question the validity of new members and claims that they may make.

You said that you work for Crédit Agricole and on calling them this morning on the following number 0207 214 5000 apparently they have never heard of a Jennifer Spears. It may be that the receptionist made a mistake but maybe you could clarify why they would never have heard of one of their own staff?
 
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