K.I.S.S. Trading GBP/USD

Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
I appreciate i do not post often, and I doubt that will change in the future, as my only priority when trading is to have a profitable day, after that i am free to enjoy the rest of the day.

However I will post a few charts now and then with explanations of why I took a trade.

It may seem like teaching Granny to suck eggs for the seasoned profitable traders, thus this thread is more aimed at people looking at a different style, that may enhance their trading.

I only trade Cable, on a 1 min time frame, and the only indicator I use is a horizontal line.

£ 18.5.15.png

I was at my computer for 06.50, and looking at the charts from 06.40 I thought maybe we would be having a long day, however this was just a thought, as no empirical technical evidence was proving my thought.

Then from 07.00 the market started moving down, so now i am thinking maybe we will be having a down day, again this was just a thought as no evidence to prove this was made available(one of the hardest things for me to have over come is being quick to change my mind on direction, sometimes in the past all counter evidence was ignored,as I wanted to be right in my directional analysis, however losing money on a trade is quick to teach you otherwise).

A dotted white line was drawn showing support, followed by resistance, then support again, thus notifying me that the only evidence I have to hand is for a short trade. I jumped in early with a tight stop knowing if i get stopped out, 5 pips is not the end of the world, in the grand scheme of things.

Price broke through at 07.58, so now i am thinking about any possible outcomes that may mean I was wrong, and a long trade was on instead.

the solid white line showed a double bottom, and now i am thinking, I may be wrong, however, for this to be so, I thought the white dotted line must be broken to the up side, and if that was the case, I would close the trade before my stop is hit, maybe with a loss of 3 pips.

However price hit the white dotted line, proving resistance again and went short. Price then broke through the solid white line, and capitulated enough for me to know I was in a short trade.

A 1:5 R:R was achieved quite quickly, and I decided to hold on to the trade, a 1:10 R:R was hit withing 30 mins, and i decided to hold on, price reversed, but not enough to worry me, as I knew I could move my stop to break-even and not lose anything on the trade.

I decided to pull out when 1:11(55.1 pips)R:R was reached, for no technical reason at all, but just thought that was enough, and that is me done for the day.

I appreciate that every day isn't going to be this straight forward, and a method may be simple in principal can be hard to execute, but I'm a firm believer in the law of 10,000hrs, and I would say I have put many a hour at the charts.

Feel free to ask any questions.

Best
John.
 
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Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
After such a profitable morning I did not take any more trades, but just wasted the day away.

I've decided to post up a chart of what was available afterwards.

None of these trades were taken, and some were watched, but not taken, due to various distracting factors.

First off all, you should know what you want, which in my case is I want 2 profitable trades each day which give a 1:5 R:R. This may seem unachievable by some, but I know after years of back testing, studying, and trading, that they are available "EVERY" day, and just using a few K.I.S.S. low risk/high probability entry criteria.

Now does this mean i hit my target everyday, no, of course not, as some days I'll place a trade, when it hits 1:4 I'll take the monies, and close up for the day, however one thing that is a definite must, regardless of how well the day has gone, and that is "end of day analysis", during this time I will look back at the day, and see what was available etc.

As stated, I do not use indicators, nor am I against their use, as I'm sure for any given indicator, there is someone out there using it very profitably.

What really perplexes me is when people have this indicator, and that indicator, tell everyone how great it is, yet they seem to only do one thing consistently, and that is to lose money, then move on to another indicator. You show them a simpler way only to be told "oh that's so simple its not even worth trying", believe me, i have come across traders like that.

Trading is like a relationship, some days its painful, most days its pleasurable, and the most important aspect is perseverance. It requires respect too, don't treat the markets like your mistress, where you can take liberties and do all the freaky-deaky stuff your partner doesn't allow, and treat it like a $5 hooker, because believe me, one day when you tell her it's over she''ll wreck your life by turning up at your door, and telling your GF all that went on in hotel rooms when I was meant to be visiting my ill uncle Monty in Scotland with photographic evidence, anyhoo i digress, but I hope you understand the analogy.

Below is a chart of all the trades that were available today, after the first, and only trade of the day that i took....

£ 18.5.15 end of day analysis.png


The chart is quite self explanatory with the dotted red line denoting short trades via double tops, and the dotted green lines denoting the double bottom's for long trades.

Again stops are tight at 5 pips, and all I am looking for in each day is 2 trades that give 1:5 R:R, anything less, even if it's a 1:4 R:R that reverses back up to entry is closed for scratch.

As you can see even, after the 1:11 R:R trade I got right, there were still 2 additional trades which gave a 1:5 R:R still left in the day.

You may ask why i did not pull out with a 1:5 R:R on the only trade that i took, and the reason is, price capitulated quite quickly and it would have been quite easy to place my stop at 1:5 R:R, and let it run on, pulling out at 1:11 R:R was purely a discretionary move.

If I was to say an advantage for this style of trading i would say that it's very profitable, and the biggest disadvantage is, it requires quite a lot of screen time, concentration staring at a fast moving one min chart, and moves will be missed if your concentration goes, that's why i usually only trade 3 days max per week, as i find it very mentally draining.

Feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or start contributing with your own K.I.S.S. styles of trading.

Best
John.
 
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Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
John for old times sake can you post that 1 million statement please

1 million statement!!!!!!! What do you think I am, a newbie trader, add another 3 zero's onto that figure bonnie lad, and that's where I am today.
:LOL::LOL::LOL:

On a more serious note, I can't believe some people took that so seriously.

best
John.
 
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Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
It's 09.00, and I am done for the day. :clap::clap::clap:

It has been another productive day with the K.I.S.S. method, although it started with a 10 pip loss(-2%) due to rushing, I creating a market order, rather than an entry order, forgot to switch the ticket from buy to sell, stop was placed at the wrong place, and had to leave the computer for a few moments.

By the time I had placed the correct order, price had moved down and stopped me out without giving me a chance to cancel the wrong order.

I know I shouldn't be making excuses, but human error is more costly to me, than any other aspect of my trading. It's quite easy for my mind to go on tilt when errors are made, but you just have to mentally take a step back, and compose yourself.

That being said, I then composed myself, and took the next available trade, and it was a peach.

£ 19.5.15A.png

As seen from the above chart, price moved quite quickly in my direction, so now it was a case of locking in profit.

£ 19.5.15B.png

From the chart above you can see I moved my stop to 1:3 R:R, thus meaning, even if i get stopped out, I am still +1% to the good.

I then let the trade run until I was satisfied with a good R:R, and pulled out with 1:14 R:R(70pips),

£ 19.5.15C.png

however a 1:2 R:R loss has to be subtracted from this, so total for the day was 1:12 R:R(60.1 pips).

Looking at the charts now, it's quite easy with hindsight to think what would have been achieved if i didn't close the trade, but the main reason I closed when I did was due to Cable news at 09.30, I'd rather be out of the market 30 mins before news comes out, so even if i was up only 1:3 R:R, around 09.00 it would be wise to just take what i have rather than risk the news. A good daily target is important, but a small profit is more important, than a loss, and once that's done, I'm done, and with such a good week, I may not trade again till Monday, however that thought is discretionary ;).

To all who read this thread, let me assure you that trading is a very hard endeavor, it takes time, patience, and perseverance. Nothing comes easy without hard work, and to achieve a good level of "CONSISTENT" profitability means hours of monotonous chart watching, seeing how price moves etc, but once you get into the flow of things, well then it's the easy bit.

All thoughts, questions, comments are most welcomed.

Best
John.
 
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Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
Took another couple of trades...

£ 19.5.15 Early AF.png

Sometimes preemptive strikes fail, and that what happened, however I lost more than I should have(2:1 R:R) :mad::mad:

Second trade was a short also, however this time we had resistance confirmation which was bang on, entry was slightly late, and this was due to Price moving quickly, however a mandatory 1:5 R:R was achieved, it has been a good day.

I hope you've all had a profitable day also.
(y)

Best
John.
 

Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
Good Morning Guys,

I hope you are all having a profitable morning.

Today has also been very profitable for myself.

£ 20.5.15A.png

As seen from the chart above, the first trade i took was on the basis of a double bottom formed. Now in the grand scheme of things this may have seemed risky, as the direction of the trend was down wards, however on a minute time frame, it's quite easy to hit a 1:5 R:R on a counter trend, thus it was taken. How do I know this, again it comes down to hours, and hours of watching price, back testing, but most importantly, from taking trades, and seeing them come to fruition, however that does not mean that I'm not caught out with false break outs, and if that does happen, stops are tight, and damage is limited to just a 1% loss.

Once price had moved sufficiently for me to be comfortable with the trade, my SL was moved to break even.

What i did next, as seen from the chart below

£ 20.5.15B.png

was to add to my position with another 1% trade.

The reason why I did this was because another buy opportunity presented itself, as I could see a good level of support, and resistance battle taking place, and since my first trade was effectively not going to cost me anything, thus another reason was added to support my trade taking bias.

Unfortunately, I was wrong, by a whisker, but that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes, and i was out for just over a 1% loss(-7.1 pips), sometimes I will take a trade again, but the evidence to support a re-take was not there.

As my SL was at 0, I popped out to buy cigarettes, and grab a coffee.

Upon returning, and looking at the charts, I see a big move up at 09.30, and 2 questions enter my mind,

1) Why was there a big spike up,
and
2)Where is my target limit.

Well, mistakes were made, as I was looking at the economic calender on the wrong day, and the limit was only put on the second trade, the only mitigation I have is at least a SL was present, and even if price had capitulated on the news, the worst it may have slipped me is 20 pips(-4%), which in the grand scheme of things would still be acceptable.

However price shot up,

£ 20.5.15C.png

and i managed to close the trade at 1:9 R:R(47.2 pips), and taking into consideration the failed trade(-7.1 pips), it has still been a +8% day, with only 1% risked on each trade.

Have a great day trading y'all.

Best
John
 

scholfield

Established member
993 233
short cable right now?
 

scholfield

Established member
993 233
I was looking at a 5min chart, forgetting that you only use a 1m.
Imagine this was a 1min chart and not a 5m, though. Would you take it for a short at the red circle based on a failure at the prior swing high (which I tihnk it what your method shows)?
cheers
 

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Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
I was looking at a 5min chart, forgetting that you only use a 1m.
Imagine this was a 1min chart and not a 5m, though. Would you take it for a short at the red circle based on a failure at the prior swing high (which I tihnk it what your method shows)?
cheers

@scholfield

Ah i see, and yes you are spot on mate (y), the only reason I had to query what you said, was the message time was 13.36, and I could not see anything around that time that matched, and like you say, I'm on a 1 min time frame.

Stops can be very tight, as failures will occur, but at the end of the day, as long as your wins are greater than your losses, then there is no doubt you will be very profitable.

A nice clean chart, and a horizontal line, with strict adherence to money management is all you need.(y)

Best
John.
 

Fugazsy

Veteren member
3,661 677
Hi John

Just read the first post, so you place limit orders at the horizontal line with 5 pips protective stop?
Are there any particular horizontal line you prefer or just line drawn on the 1m TF? Thanks

Fzsy
 

Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
Hi John

Just read the first post, so you place limit orders at the horizontal line with 5 pips protective stop?
Are there any particular horizontal line you prefer or just line drawn on the 1m TF? Thanks

Fzsy

Ciao Fugazy,
Spero che il comercio sta andando benisimo.
;)

I just try and stick to the basics, and try and do them as well as possible.

I look for Double tops, double bottoms, see areas of S&R, and just take those trades, with very tight stops.

Best
John.
 
 
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