ajaskey's Blog

Thoughts and Portfolio

I've been too conservative in my positions to this point. I am up 24% since February but could have been up much more as I have never been close to fully invested. My new plan is to buy any good opportunity from a good base using these lists.

http://ajaskey.wso.net/investor/AJA100.html
http://ajaskey.wso.net/investor/AJA20.html

The AJA20 is a subset of the AJA100 made up of stocks with a high daily volume.

I want to get fully invested and will dump non-performing positions quickly if a better position presents itself. I've missed many good moves from nice bases when I look at the AJA100.

I'll try to post my buy ideas (basing or pulling back to the base breakout) at least the night before. I'll have buy stops in and will post the next night if I am in anything new or have sold something. I'm going to try to log my planning in addition to buys and sells. Of course, there may long periods of time when I don't have anything interesting to post.

Code: 
[B]Ticker   Date   Price Cost  Shares Investment Return Gain/Loss      Equity     %Port
[/B]GVHR   10/24/05 28.10 25.00  6,000 150,000.00 12.40%  18,600.00     168,600.00 13.58%
CELL   10/24/05 28.81 19.30  7,750 149,575.00 49.27%  73,702.50     223,277.50 17.98%
SWN    12/02/05 36.36 35.75  5,500 196,625.00  1.71%   3,355.00     199,980.00 16.11%
SIRF   12/02/05 29.05 29.02  3,500 101,570.00  0.10%     105.00     101,675.00  8.19%
                                                                                     
CASH                               547,946.18        241,478.68     547,946.18 44.14%
                                                     Equity:     $1,241,478.68       
                                                                                     
                                                     [B]           Total Return : 24.15%[/B]
 
Watching

ARD - pullback to 50dma or volume break over $26

CFK - volume over $12.60

BOOM - maybe on a move back to 50dma, depending on volume

GIL - low volume back below $39
 
Watching

ASEI - Break above 70.25 on volume or a low volume shakeout near 50dma.

BTUI - High volume bounce of 50dma above today's high of 14.70, or possible an obvious lower price after the bounce.

TS - Low volume pullback to the 50dma.

----

Edit Dec 07,2005

Buying BTUI above yesterdays high of 14.72 with a stock below todays low. This is a trading setup but I hope to use it go get in as the bigger move starts.

ASEI - watching for a volume reversal above todays high.
 
Trades

Sold half of CELL at close for 28.85 as it is extended and high volume down day.

Bought ICON - [email protected]

Passed on BTUI with less than average volume.

Watching ASEI over 66.50.

Watching ASF over today's high.
 
Sold CELL

Sold the other half of CELL on the lower volume up day - 29.48. Will consider re-entering after a pullback.

Up 27.73% YTD.
 
Outta ICON

These cheapies are killing me. Going to stick with $50,000 position size in anything less than $15. Out on break of recent lows 9.69 - lost $7,695.
 
EndOfYear Tally

Finished up 24.58%. Could have done much better but I made some correctable mistakes. I'll withdraw the $245,754.93 profit and buy a new computer and maybe some hot wings.

I'll start 2006 with $1M again to make bookkeeping easier. If anyone sees any obvious math errors please let me know. I am using Excel and it can get confused very easily if I don't constantly confirm the formulas.

Closed Positions:

Code: 
[B]Ticker   Date    Cost  Shares Investment Return   Gain/Loss   Sold   Realized   Comments
[/B]ISRG   04/06/05  50.00  2,000 100,000.00 -11.36% (11,360.00)  44.32  88,640.00 Sold 4/22
ISRG   04/14/05  48.50  1,000  48,500.00   0.52%      250.00  48.75  48,750.00 Sold 4/23
APPX   04/06/05  54.50  1,830  99,735.00  -2.75%  (2,745.00)  53.00  96,990.00 Sold 4/28
APPX   04/14/05  55.00    900  49,500.00  -3.64%  (1,800.00)  53.00  47,700.00 Sold 4/28
UTHR   04/06/05  46.26  2,160  99,921.60   9.17%    9,158.40  50.50 109,080.00 Sold 4/28
AVL    04/08/05  29.12  1,750  50,960.00   1.30%      665.00  29.50  51,625.00 Sold 4/28
AVL    04/12/05  29.80  1,650  49,170.00  -1.01%    (495.00)  29.50  48,675.00 Sold 4/28
BLUD   04/12/05  31.00  3,225  99,975.00  -2.90%  (2,902.50)  30.10  97,072.50 Sold 4/28
WC     04/18/05  54.50  1,825  99,462.50   0.92%      912.50  55.00 100,375.00 Sold 4/28
BLUD   05/05/05  31.80  4,717 150,000.60   1.57%    2,358.50  32.30 152,359.10 Sold 5/10
WC     05/04/05  55.65  2,695 149,976.75   2.07%    3,099.25  56.80 153,076.00 Sold 5/16
UTHR   05/04/05  49.90  3,006 149,999.40   4.59%    6,883.74  52.19 156,883.14 Sold 5/25
FORD   05/16/05  17.60  1,500  26,400.00  22.16%    5,850.00  21.50  32,250.00 Sold 5/26
FORD   06/06/05  20.55  7,000 143,850.00  -1.70%  (2,450.00)  20.20 141,400.00 Sold  6/23
FORD   05/16/05  17.60  3,500  61,600.00   3.69%    2,275.00  18.25  63,875.00 Sold  6/24
FORD   05/16/05  17.60  3,500  61,600.00   3.69%    2,275.00  18.25  63,875.00 Sold  6/27
BOOM   05/23/05  16.35  5,000  81,750.00  26.27%   21,475.00  20.65 103,225.00 Sold 5/26
ANT    05/18/05  45.00  3,333 149,985.00  -5.27%  (7,899.21)  42.63 142,085.79 Sold 6/03
SHLD   06/02/05 152.37    985 150,084.45  -3.20%  (4,796.95) 147.50 145,287.50 Sold 6/07
MW     05/19/05  47.00  3,190 149,930.00  14.15%   21,213.50  53.65 171,143.50 Sold 6/09
SMRT   05/31/05  24.20  3,000  72,600.00  -0.83%    (600.00)  24.00  72,000.00 Sold 6/15
AVL    05/12/05  30.00  5,000 150,000.00   4.50%    6,750.00  31.35 156,750.00 Sold 7/10
BOOM   07/11/05  21.50  2,000  43,000.00  -0.35%    (150.00)  21.43  42,850.00 Sold 7/13
DNA    07/11/05  84.20  1,782 150,044.40   3.56%    5,346.00  87.20 155,390.40 Sold 9/23
AOB    10/24/05   5.65 13,300  75,145.00  -7.08%  (5,320.00)   5.25  69,825.00 Sold 10/27
LDSH   11/01/05  19.80  5,000  99,000.00  -0.91%    (900.00)  19.62  98,100.00 Sold 11/02
BOOM   05/18/05  16.00  4,685  74,960.00  67.19%   50,363.75  26.75 125,323.75 Sold 11/07
BOOM   05/18/05  16.00  4,685  74,960.00  66.75%   50,035.80  26.68 124,995.80 Sold 11/08
VPHM   11/02/05  20.43  9,870 201,644.10  -0.88%  (1,776.60)  20.25 199,867.50 Sold 11/10
SWN    12/02/05  35.75  5,500 196,625.00   2.15%    4,235.00  36.52 200,860.00 Sold 12/05
SIRF   12/02/05  29.02  3,500 101,570.00  -3.00%  (3,045.00)  28.15  98,525.00 Sold 12/05
CELL   10/24/05  19.30  3,875  74,787.50  49.48%   37,006.25  28.85 111,793.75 Sold 12/12
CELL   10/24/05  19.30  3,875  74,787.50  52.75%   39,447.50  29.48 114,235.00 Sold 12/13
ICON   12/11/05  10.50  9,500  99,750.00  -7.71%  (7,695.00)   9.69  92,055.00 Sold 12/19

Open Positions:

Code: 
[B]Ticker   Date   Price Cost  Shares Investment Return Gain/Loss      Equity    %Port
[/B]GVHR   10/24/05 25.72 25.00  6,000 150,000.00  2.88%   4,320.00    154,320.00 12.39%
BOOM   12/05/05 30.02 26.70  1,900  50,730.00 12.43%   6,308.00     57,038.00  4.58%
ARD    12/05/05 27.60 26.01  5,800 150,858.00  6.11%   9,222.00    160,080.00 12.85%
CFK    12/05/05 13.89 12.61  8,000 100,880.00 10.15%  10,240.00    111,120.00  8.92%
                                                                                    
CASH                               763,196.93        245,754.93    763,196.93 61.26%
                                                     Equity:    $1,245,754.93
 
Sold GVHR

Not sure what the problem is. Sold below recent low at $24.70. May buy it back if it shows some life.
 
GVHR

Just an opinion on the bounce. The chart of a stock with good fundies that sudden shows a lack of buyers often is a sign the company is going to sell more stock. The big money stops buying and gets what it wants from the additional stock offering.
 
Buy/Sell

Added more VPHM [email protected]

Didn't buy more BTUI because it gapped and never made a new high from the gap.

Sold CFK at 14.93. Don't like the down volume trumping the up volume.

Bought UPL above recent high [email protected]

Watching RAIL for low volume pullback to enter.

Watching ARD for possible sell if volume sellers show up.
 
Sold BTUI

Broke below recent low and sold at 13.95. Will buy back on strength above 50dma.

Watching PWEI, DXPE, ATEA, ASF, MVCO
 
Buys/Sell

RAIL - Bought [email protected] on stop for pullback to breakout. Bought additional [email protected] for average price of 52.43.

TS - Bought [email protected] on breakout from recent high.

Sold BOOM @35.21 based on new highs on low volume. Will watch an reenter when it looks better.

Watching CHK to buy over $34. Watching VPHM closely to sell if necessary.
 
VPHM

Adding to VPHM above yesterdays high at 20.74. My rule of selling gaps with the market is to let them settle early and put a stop below where they settle. VPHM did not go lower than it's low in the first 1/2 hour so I held.
 
Holdings and Closed Trades

Code: 
[B]Ticker   Date   Price   Cost  Shares Investment Return Gain/Loss  Sold   Realized      Equity     %Port          Comments
[/B]GVHR   10/24/05  27.15  25.72  6,000 154,320.00 -3.97% (6,120.00) 24.70 148,200.00           0.00  0.00% Carryover - Sold 5Jan06
CFK    12/05/05  16.00  13.89  8,000 111,120.00  7.49%   8,320.00 14.93 119,440.00           0.00  0.00% Carryover - Sold 11Jan06
BTUI   01/10/06  15.21  15.05  3,325  50,041.25 -7.31% (3,657.50) 13.95  46,383.75           0.00  0.00%       Sold 13Jan06
BOOM   12/05/05  36.82  30.02  1,900  57,038.00 17.29%   9,861.00 35.21  66,899.00           0.00  0.00% Carryover - Sold 17Jan06
ARD    12/05/05  34.23  27.60  5,800 160,080.00 24.02%  38,454.00                      198,534.00 17.66%         Carryover
UPL    01/11/06  65.50  60.42  2,500 151,050.00  8.41%  12,700.00                      163,750.00 14.57%             
RAIL   01/17/06  58.02  52.43  2,800 146,804.00 10.66%  15,652.00                      162,456.00 14.45%             
TS     01/17/06 162.47 132.16  1,200 158,592.00 22.93%  36,372.00                      194,964.00 17.35%             
ATEA   01/19/05  21.20  19.25  5,100  98,175.00 10.13%   9,945.00                      108,120.00  9.62%             
VPHM   01/19/05  21.12  20.80  7,400 153,920.00  1.54%   2,368.00                      156,288.00 13.91%       Multiple Buys
                                                                                                                                 
CASH                                 139,782.50        123,894.50                      139,782.50 12.44%                         
                                                                           Equity:  $1,123,894.50                                
                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                   [B]Total Return : 12.39% [/B]
 
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