Do you play the lottery ? Is this any reflection on your trading ?

DionysusToast

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I was walking down Venice Beach about 6 months ago and I spotted something on the ground. As I approached it, I saw it was a dollar bill folded up in the shape of an origami swan.

I picked up the dollar bill and handed it to my Spanish friend Raquel.

I told her to keep it for good luck.

On the following day, she gave me a photocopy of a lottery ticket she'd brought with the dollar and told me we'd share the winnings if it came in. Her opinion was that this was a worthy investment of the dollar. I told her she should have kept the dollar, perhaps for sentimental reasons if nothing else. I felt the found dollar swan had more value than a lottery ticket.

I didn't labour the point but it did make me reflect somewhat. It's 2 different perspectives. I don't buy lottery tickets. I think they are a waste of cash. Your chances of winning are as good as zero.

I see some similarities between this & those who buy EAs/systems/training with silly claims of outlandish returns. In fact, it is the case that even smart people will part with a relatively insignificant amount of cash if the stated returns are outlandish enough. So - you may part with a few hundred dollars if the goal is to make a million, after all - "what have you got to lose" or "it's worth a punt, just in case it's for real".

If the same person offered to double your few hundred dollars but looked just as dodgy, you'd say no. As the word 'million' is bandied about, despite the fact you know it's still not right - it suddenly becomes worth a shot.

This isn't risk:reward. This is something else.

Are we naturally wired to cling to false hopes ?
 
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Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky offers one of the more elegant explanations of how we humans actually make decisions. Specifically, it addresses the lottery issue.
 
Is this in a paper or a book ? I'd be interested in reading that.

Some Englishman got 57million yesterday on Euro. When I heard that the other winner was in Spain I checked my two lines in the list, quick. Not one number right! I hope that I can say that my trading is better than that! Besides, I use the same numbers every week.
 
i don't play the lottery, I don't like the idea that i can not influence the result or make a decision that will give me an edge.
 
The lottery is just a form of entertainment;
Paying that £1 may make watching television that night particularly interesting and enjoyable, therefore in itself serves as 'worth paying'.

Its like going to the cinema; Do you need to go to the cinema ? No. Could you spend the 3 hours instead sleeping for free ? Probably.
Yet we've all been and most probably go regularly enough; Now as to the pricing, is it worth the entertainment, is spending these pounds going to give me enough good feelings ?

Gambling again; a form of entertainment ... Like buying a fast car, going to the cinema, eating at an expensive restraunt ...

Your going to watch the Rugby game England Vs Italy - and if you buy a £5 bet, maybe it'll make it a lot more interesting, a lot more entertaining, more fun and therefore you'll have a better time ...

To say a lottery buyer = a bad trader ... Is really like saying that anyone who seeks to have a good time through expenditure without a prospect of return is a bad trader.

& Btw i've never bought a lottery ticket because i'd find getting a mars bar more entertaining ;)
 
Is this in a paper or a book ? I'd be interested in reading that.

I recommend starting with http://www.amazon.com/Winners-Curse...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1266168485&sr=8-1 then following the footnotes. Incidentally it'll also tell you how to play the lottery - under the right circumstances - with +EV ;)

Seminal papers are in http://www.amazon.com/Choices-Values-Frames-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0521627494/ref=pd_sim_b_2

I play euromillions when the jackpots are above the £20million range.
 
Money in the Lottery is a high-risk proposition - just think what would happen if most of those punters traded the markets - brokers delight eh? Yet these same people (or the ones I know) think trading is risky when they almost certainly lose their money and I know over time what I will get back. Humans are so illogical.

Can't see the point of the lottery (doubtless, the politicians can!) when you can get a more or less stable positive return on the markets - it's all about probability. Mind you, - some people waste their lives; is it the same with their wealth?
 
Everyone always says the odds are so horrendous there is no point playing the lottery.

And everytime I get on a plane people tell me the odds of a crash are infinestimally small.

Tell that to anyone who's on a 747 when it starts going down and see how much they care.

At the end of the day, winning the lottery is a dream.

It's a dream like taking part in an orgy with six women or finding a cure for cancer (with worse and probably better odds respectively) but it comes down to a simple fact:

If you pay £1 that dream has a small chance of coming true.

On the same point, at my first ever interview to be a prop trader the guy that interviewed me told me that every trader regardless of whether they finished their day up or down left the office and went to buy a lottery ticket.

I can't remember now why he told me that but I distinctly remember it.
 
I can't remember now why he told me that but I distinctly remember it.


I've had a good day, my luck's in, might as well have a go on the lottery.

What a crap day, my lucks got to change soon, might as well have a go on the lottery, might change with that
 
I play lots when I am losing money trading and never at all when I am trading well.. I only ever buy lucky dips (random numbers)so I wouldnt have the nightmare situation of seeing my numbers come up when I didnt play.. would you still trade if you hit the jackpot though?..
 
would you still trade if you hit the jackpot though?..

Of course.

Absolute best case you're gonna make around £150m winning the jackpot.

Now with that capital you ain't gonna have moron-brokers boasting about 400:1 leverage taking you on... BUT that's still enough to hold entire countries to ransom if you know what you're doing :devilish:
 
As an aside, I was running game the other night on a girl I just met and I wasn't that interested so I hit her with the "think of a number between 1 and 10" line.

As soon as I looked at her and said "7" she obviously wanted to know how I'd done it despite this trick being as old as the hills.

So I came back with the "pick a number between 1 and 4 and did the hand gesture to lead her to 3 which she duly picked.

At this point she looked slightly scared.

Then as it happens there was a TV playing the lottery on. And the first ball had dropped and the others were all getting jumbled and I looked at her and said in an offhand way "and for my final trick - the next ball that drops will be 44".

When 44 dropped next, her jaw literally hit the floor.

As did mine.

Now obviously I got ridiculously lucky. Not only in the number but in the timing. No idea what the odds of that would be.

But what I said was based on a simple fact: I've noticed a pattern and that is that every time I have ever bothered to check the numbers in the paper, there is always a 44 in the winners. Whether this is because statistically it comes up a lot or it just happens to be there when I've checked I don't know but if I ever played the lottery I would definetly have that in the line up because the amount of times I have seen it is disconcerting.
 
I've noticed a pattern and that is that every time I have ever bothered to check the numbers in the paper, there is always a 44 in the winners.

It's quantum theory - every time you pick 44 for yourself, it never turns up in the winning line because you have it. Whenever you don't have it, there are an infinite number of 44's in the Universe which also includes its inclusion in the winning numbers. Bit like the cat in the box, except 44.
 
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