DionysusToast
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I was walking down Venice Beach about 6 months ago and I spotted something on the ground. As I approached it, I saw it was a dollar bill folded up in the shape of an origami swan.
I picked up the dollar bill and handed it to my Spanish friend Raquel.
I told her to keep it for good luck.
On the following day, she gave me a photocopy of a lottery ticket she'd brought with the dollar and told me we'd share the winnings if it came in. Her opinion was that this was a worthy investment of the dollar. I told her she should have kept the dollar, perhaps for sentimental reasons if nothing else. I felt the found dollar swan had more value than a lottery ticket.
I didn't labour the point but it did make me reflect somewhat. It's 2 different perspectives. I don't buy lottery tickets. I think they are a waste of cash. Your chances of winning are as good as zero.
I see some similarities between this & those who buy EAs/systems/training with silly claims of outlandish returns. In fact, it is the case that even smart people will part with a relatively insignificant amount of cash if the stated returns are outlandish enough. So - you may part with a few hundred dollars if the goal is to make a million, after all - "what have you got to lose" or "it's worth a punt, just in case it's for real".
If the same person offered to double your few hundred dollars but looked just as dodgy, you'd say no. As the word 'million' is bandied about, despite the fact you know it's still not right - it suddenly becomes worth a shot.
This isn't risk:reward. This is something else.
Are we naturally wired to cling to false hopes ?
I picked up the dollar bill and handed it to my Spanish friend Raquel.
I told her to keep it for good luck.
On the following day, she gave me a photocopy of a lottery ticket she'd brought with the dollar and told me we'd share the winnings if it came in. Her opinion was that this was a worthy investment of the dollar. I told her she should have kept the dollar, perhaps for sentimental reasons if nothing else. I felt the found dollar swan had more value than a lottery ticket.
I didn't labour the point but it did make me reflect somewhat. It's 2 different perspectives. I don't buy lottery tickets. I think they are a waste of cash. Your chances of winning are as good as zero.
I see some similarities between this & those who buy EAs/systems/training with silly claims of outlandish returns. In fact, it is the case that even smart people will part with a relatively insignificant amount of cash if the stated returns are outlandish enough. So - you may part with a few hundred dollars if the goal is to make a million, after all - "what have you got to lose" or "it's worth a punt, just in case it's for real".
If the same person offered to double your few hundred dollars but looked just as dodgy, you'd say no. As the word 'million' is bandied about, despite the fact you know it's still not right - it suddenly becomes worth a shot.
This isn't risk:reward. This is something else.
Are we naturally wired to cling to false hopes ?
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