Do you play the lottery ? Is this any reflection on your trading ?

[trader_dante]

It's quantum theory - every time you pick 44 for yourself, it never turns up in the winning line because you have it. Whenever you don't have it, there are an infinite number of 44's in the Universe which also includes its inclusion in the winning numbers. Bit like the cat in the box, except 44.

Don't know about Quantum Theory but a quick search just confirmed my suspicions: http://lottery.merseyworld.com/Analysis/FrequencyOrder.html

It was the 6th most frequent number whenever this was compiled.

 

[foredog]

Just let us know next time you're on the pull, 7 & 44 and we'll all have a decent chance at 6 numbers!!!!!!!

 

[DionysusToast]

What if it had won?

The chances of this happening are so close to zero, the difference is moot.

To say a lottery buyer = a bad trader ... Is really like saying that anyone who seeks to have a good time through expenditure without a prospect of return is a bad trader.

& Btw i've never bought a lottery ticket because i'd find getting a mars bar more entertaining

I never said lottery ticket buyers are bad traders I do agree that a mars bar makes more sense though.

Your point about it having entertainment value is interesting. Me & my dad used to buy lottery tickets and watch the TV together - he'd go through anticipation, elation (first number matched) and then dissapointment. I didn't experience any of that. At the time of buying a ticket, I knew I wouldn't win, all through that crappy TV show, I knew I wouldn't win. As they were drawing the numbers, I knew I wouldn't win.

I went through zero emotions during this time and my father and I used to have long discussions about it at the pub afterwards.

At the end of the day, winning the lottery is a dream.

It's a dream like taking part in an orgy with six women or finding a cure for cancer (with worse and probably better odds respectively) but it comes down to a simple fact:

If you pay £1 that dream has a small chance of coming true.

I think you overestimate the chances of having an orgy with 6 women. :whistling

Don't know about Quantum Theory but a quick search just confirmed my suspicions: http://lottery.merseyworld.com/Analysis/FrequencyOrder.html

It was the 6th most frequent number whenever this was compiled.

Why would you expect this NOT to be the case ? Why would you expect a specific number to not come out more than others ? One number has to be the most frequent at any point in time.

 

[arabianights]

I think you overestimate the chances of having an orgy with 6 women. :whistling

As you well know you get what you pay for.

Again re:lottery I cannot understand why anyone would care about the lottery ticket price a week - it might as well be free. But there is always some possibility of riches.

The link I gave you re tversky and all (the 2nd one); there's actually a threesome of those books that are pretty obvious from the amazon page. Get em all, they're very very very very very good.

 

[DionysusToast]

Order placed already ! Thanks for the tip.

OK - so to progress on the lottery. For those that play, is it possible for you to outline the circumstances under which you would stop playing ?

For instance, if the ticket price AND prize were both multiplied by 100 - would you still play ? How about 10 quid a ticket, 50 quid a ticket etc.. ?
If you had to choose 10 numbers instead of 6 would you still play ?
If you had to choose from numbers 1-100 instead of 1-49, would you still play ?
If there were less numbers to choose, lowering max payout to 50,000 pounds but increasing number of winners, would you still play ?


Specifically - what are the parameters within which you would still play this game. Consider :
Ticket Price
How many numbers on the ticket (currently 6)
The range of numbers chosen (currently 1-49).
Frequency of games

Or any other parameters you can choose from.

 

[Paulie_5]

I only play the lottery if I'm getting a fair pay-out for the odds involved. So with a 14 million to 1 chance of winning the jackpot, I only play if the prize money is over 14 million quid. Then at least I feel like it's a fair bet.

So to answer your question DT, yes I'd play whatever the method and ticket cost, (49 balls, 100 balls, 10 balls, £1, £5, £10) ... provided that the prize money reflected the odds.

That said, I'm not sure I'd chuck any more than a tenner at it. At that point, the disappointment of losing would far outweigh the entertainment derived from entering in the first place.

 

[HawkTrader]

It's a dream like taking part in an orgy with six women or finding a cure for cancer (with worse and probably better odds respectively)

True, true. Except, a cure for most cancers was found a couple of years back. Oops...

Not sure where you're going with the second bit. Have you ever heard of Thailand?

 

[DionysusToast]

As you well know you get what you pay for.

I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about :innocent:

 

[DionysusToast]

I only play the lottery if I'm getting a fair pay-out for the odds involved. So with a 14 million to 1 chance of winning the jackpot, I only play if the prize money is over 14 million quid. Then at least I feel like it's a fair bet.

So to answer your question DT, yes I'd play whatever the method and ticket cost, (49 balls, 100 balls, 10 balls, £1, £5, £10) ... provided that the prize money reflected the odds.

That said, I'm not sure I'd chuck any more than a tenner at it. At that point, the disappointment of losing would far outweigh the entertainment derived from entering in the first place.

OK - interesting this one.

If the amount you could win is reduced, despite the win rate being the same, you would not play. Fair enough.

What about if it was 1 quid a ticket. You could with 100 quid and it was 1000 to 1 chance of winning ?

 

[DionysusToast]

Not sure where you're going with the second bit. Have you ever heard of Thailand?

I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about :innocent::innocent::innocent:

Anyway - who wants 6 ? 2 is more than enough (as long as one is from the left of the yellow line)

 

[Paulie_5]

OK - interesting this one.

If the amount you could win is reduced, despite the win rate being the same, you would not play. Fair enough.

What about if it was 1 quid a ticket. You could with 100 quid and it was 1000 to 1 chance of winning ?

You've lost me there mate .... If you meant to say "What about if it was 1 quid a ticket. You could win 100 quid and it was 1000 to 1 chance of winning" ... then no, of course not, odds are dreadful for the prize on offer.

But somehow I think you were getting at something else ....

 

[DionysusToast]

Paulie - you understood it fine.

Basically - 1 quid to have a 1000 to 1 chance of winning 100 quid.

Why is this not a good deal if the 14 million to 1 chance is a good deal ?

 

[Paulie_5]

In your scenario, I stand a 1000/1 chance of winning £100. So I'd have to play 1000 times before I win. Over time, I spend £1000 to win £100. Not a fair bet.

With the jackpot, I stand a £14 million/1 chance of winning £14 million. I'd have to play £14 million times before I win. Over time, I spend £14 million to win £14 million. Fair bet.

 

[DionysusToast]

With a 14 million jackpot, even if you brought 14 million tickets, there is a very good chance you would win less than 14 million. When the prize rolls over, there is more participation so the chance of sharing the jackpot increases.

In fact, you prove there is more participation because you don't participate at a lower perceived risk:reward ratio.

This is not an attack. There is nothing wrong or unintelligent about playing the lottery. It is after all, just a quid.

What I would say is that it shows how a large enough number as the reward can cloud our perception.

This is perhaps why snake oil salesmen throw around astronomical returns figures because it taps into this area of the psyche.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Your point about it having entertainment value is interesting. Me & my dad used to buy lottery tickets and watch the TV together - he'd go through anticipation, elation (first number matched) and then dissapointment. I didn't experience any of that. At the time of buying a ticket, I knew I wouldn't win, all through that crappy TV show, I knew I wouldn't win. As they were drawing the numbers, I knew I wouldn't win.

I went through zero emotions during this time and my father and I used to have long discussions about it at the pub afterwards.

Football pools were far more entertaining I think for anyone who followed the game.
They could convince themselves that it was their skill that was at play, and maybe they were at least partly right. Similarly for people who do the horses or dogs seriously.

My football-loving Quaker Father-in-law, who wouldn't gamble or drink to save his life, used to check the football results on a Saturday religiously (not having entered the pools, just to be clear; he wouldn't even send off difficult prize crosswords, although he completed them easily).


Personally, I have never and probably will never buy a lottery ticket, but I keep buying the occasional Premium Bond. The chances of a big prize are in the same order as the lottery I think, but at least you don't lose your stake (other than it eroding with inflation). Biggest prize I've had is £50; Recently they have started dishing out £25 prizes, and I've had a couple of those.

People regularly win small amounts on the lottery though don't they? Scratch cards or whatever. I have to say that I find something depressing about the whole idea of lotteries.

 

[robster970]

Personally, I have never and probably will never buy a lottery ticket, but I keep buying the occasional Premium Bond. The chances of a big prize are in the same order as the lottery I think, but at least you don't lose your stake (other than it eroding with inflation). Biggest prize I've had is £50; Recently they have started dishing out £25 prizes, and I've had a couple of those.

If you're on max allowance, you get a small but noticeable stream of money from they. Better than interest rates currently imo.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

True, true. Except, a cure for most cancers was found a couple of years back. Oops...

What/when was that then?

 

[Masquerade]

The chances of this happening are so close to zero, the difference is moot.

Ok, well then perhaps you could tell me the odds of finding a a dollar bill folded up in the shape of an origami swan when walking down venice beach on any given day?

 

[gooseman]

Again re:lottery I cannot understand why anyone would care about the lottery ticket price a week - it might as well be free. But there is always some possibility of riches.

ok if it's free gie me a pound a week and i guarantee that once in the next 269,000 years i'll give you 7million quid.

 

[DionysusToast]

Ok, well then perhaps you could tell me the odds of finding a a dollar bill folded up in the shape of an origami swan when walking down venice beach on any given day?

LMAO !

That is a very good point !