kittycriston
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Apple shares really have helped in holding the overall stock market up in the past but recently it has been a big drag on the broad market. Taking a look at the chart below you can see my analysis and thoughts of this giant.
Stock has been subject to huge amt of selling from hedge funds and institutional holders.
The stock has amazing fundamental value, I'm sure it will shoot back up.
But I'd hold off buying until an upward trend emerges....it's likely to continue downward for the time being
The stock has amazing fundamental value, I'm sure it will shoot back up.
But I'd hold off buying until an upward trend emerges....it's likely to continue downward for the time being
Mr. Crabs
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Vic when I came up with this thread I was thinking more along the lines of a 1-3 month bounce, I was thinking selling AAPL when it nears $500.
Kitty I agree check my thread earlier about AAPL foreshadowing the market which brings me to wills' point which is big money is selling AAPL, I think this is a precursor to big money withdrawing from the market entirely. The huge profits they are accustomed too are not sustainable without a market correction, I'm expecting a bounce in AAPL before we tank lower dragging the rest of the markets with us. I expect their will be a migration towards liquidating market positions through this year.
AAPL showed a lot of strength today so I expect we will be accumulating for a short time before we bounce above $460.
Kitty I agree check my thread earlier about AAPL foreshadowing the market which brings me to wills' point which is big money is selling AAPL, I think this is a precursor to big money withdrawing from the market entirely. The huge profits they are accustomed too are not sustainable without a market correction, I'm expecting a bounce in AAPL before we tank lower dragging the rest of the markets with us. I expect their will be a migration towards liquidating market positions through this year.
AAPL showed a lot of strength today so I expect we will be accumulating for a short time before we bounce above $460.
I dont agree that big money's withdrawing from the market, but am expecting a bounce in AAPL at some point. I think the selling has been independent of whats going on in the broader market and is pretty much unjustified. I'm waiting for an upwards trend before buying.
Mr. Crabs
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The S&P has seen more gains these past 4 years than the market has ever seen. Does this mean nothing to you?
The S&P has seen more gains these past 4 years than the market has ever seen. Does this mean nothing to you?
Also the fed & BOE have printed more money in those past 4 years than even before.
Not saying there aint going to be some corrections along the way, but imo we're in a bull market right now.
Mr. Crabs
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I can't argue with that except on this bit - I don't think us being in a bull market is your opinion. Seems more like a fact.
I expect the bull trend to propagate itself for at least another 2 weeks. I would like to see the S&P extend consistently until at least May. I hope the upcoming correction will cut deep and swift in order to ensure a rapid and lucrative exit from this 'recessional recovery period' we are still bogged in.
TBH my opinion on AAPL has changed. I think at a 10.5 PE it's way undervalued, given its cash pile and also its products. (yes its the usual undervalued stance)
However I also think that analysts are very bearish about it, with most estimates falling below the consensus reading. This has definitely had an influence on buying activity on 'the street'
Given the rise of tiffany and other luxury goods retailers against the overall opinion of the market, I think it's reasonable that we are going to see a pleasant surprise in AAPL's next earnings update (due in April).
Also I think their underlying technology (operating system) is FAR better than anything else in the handset market. If they just adjusted the pricing on their products they could bring in more revenue. This is a long term play however. In the short term, its their April earnings that matters, and my opinion is they are going to suprise in a good way.
So I'm still bullish on AAPL, past the 500 mark.
Mr. Crabs
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From an operators standpoint I think this thing will be too saturated with sellers to even hold up our most recent support.
Purple Brain
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AAPL is sitting on a cash pile of around $137bn. This is dead money. The major shareholders are pushing hard to get it released back to them in the form of a special dividend. This would be a sell scenario. Another option is for AAPL to take a slab of that and invest it in R&D somewhere where R&D investments are low-to-no tax (such as Canada). That would be a buy scenario. The do nothing status which is what we have right now tends towards a sell scenario the longer it persists. So yes, if you're holding a long position, deciding to pare down your position would be understandable.
Interesting. Why would a special dividend be a sell scenario?
Mr. Crabs
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Because people are cashing out long, and this market cap is too enormous for short-term bounces to be long-lived without big money buying long-term. All IMO.
Sorry I really didnt understand any of that.
Mr. Crabs
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Right ... you are saying that you don't think "big money" is buying the stock long term and that you think everyone else is selling, so you are following them and selling also.
Who were the people then who pulled the stock up from 420?
Mr. Crabs
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The operators that were liquidating...
You can have a bounce while big money is trying to sell.
As a matter of fact big money usually operates a bounce in order to sell.
It's common sense that's what brokers do. Make it bounce sell on the way up.
The final arbiter is price movement. This is when people place their bets. So far, AAPl is showing a series of lower lows and lower highs, in other words sellers are outstripping buyers. Whilst there is support at $420 region, the bounce off that level is weak suggesting weak demand. We won't see strong support until we get to the $365 price point. That place was prior take off point that drove prices to the $700 level.
